Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted Tuesday at 08:10 PM Administrators Share Posted Tuesday at 08:10 PM SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce hail on Thursday from far northeast Kansas across northern Missouri and into southern Iowa. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Thursday, a progressive upper trough will move from the central and northern Rockies into the Plains, as upper ridging briefly develops from the OH Valley into the Northeast. High pressure will be in place over much of the East in the wake of the previous days cold front, providing generally stable conditions there. In association with the Rockies/Plains trough, a cold front will push quickly southeastward across the northern and central Plains, extending roughly from MN into the TX Panhandle by 00Z. Modest boundary-layer moistening will occur with dewpoints in the low to mid 50s F as far north as southwest IA. As the cold front interacts with the narrow plume of instability, at least isolated surface-based storms are anticipated during the late afternoon, trending toward elevated through the evening, from northeast KS into northern MO and IA. Forecast soundings show steepening lapse rates aloft along with veering winds with height, suggesting a supercell, even if elevated, may occur, with hail risk. The favored zone for initiation will be the KS portion of the cold front where low-level lapse rates will be steepest. Overall, the main limiting factor for this event will be moisture quality as lift and shear will be favorable. ..Jewell.. 10/22/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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