Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted yesterday at 04:48 AM Administrators Share Posted yesterday at 04:48 AM SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears negligible today through tonight. ...Lower Great Lakes to northern New England... A broad mid/upper-level trough will progress across parts of southeast Canada and over the Great Lakes into the Northeast by Thursday morning. Large-scale ascent will remain on the modest side along an attendant surface cold front moving similarly eastward. Moisture return ahead of it will be rather limited, and MUCAPE should only peak around 100 J/kg. These factors suggest that while a brief thunderstorm or two is possible, overall thunder probabilities appear to be less than 10 percent. ...Central AR to southeast OK... The trailing portion of the aforementioned cold front will sag south and eventually stall, where it will intercept a plume of moderate boundary-layer moisture characterized by mean mixing ratios around 12 g/kg. Pockets of weak low-level convergence could support shallow convective attempts by late afternoon. While a brief thunderstorm is plausible, the lack of forcing for ascent beyond the stalled front and persistent warm/dry mid-levels suggest thunder probabilities are less than 10 percent. ..Grams/Marsh.. 10/23/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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