SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

Dry return flow ahead of an approaching cold front will result in
elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions in portions of
Oklahoma, Kansas, and the Texas Panhandle tomorrow. Latest
high-resolution guidance indicates higher dewpoints will return to
portions of eastern Oklahoma, eastern Kansas, and western Missouri
than previously forecast, leading to a westward shift of the
Elevated area. While RH will be around elevated criteria,
temperatures will be well above normal in addition to the strong
southerly winds across portions of the southern/central Plains.
Areas farther west in Kansas and Texas were not included due to
recent rainfall. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are
likely in portions of eastern Colorado behind the cold front, but
recent rainfall should mitigate concerns.

..Nauslar.. 10/23/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024/

...Synopsis...
Large-scale critical fire-weather conditions are currently not
anticipated on Thursday. However, elevated-to-locally-critical
fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of the Southern
Plains. 

Here, a weak frontal boundary will weaken and dissipate in response
to a developing lee cyclone. Strong, gusty southerly winds will take
hold by the afternoon, with winds gusting around 30 mph at times.
Additionally, residual circulations associated with the dissipating
surface front will help drive afternoon high temperatures to near
record levels. Given the long-term drought and extremely receptive
fuels, an Elevated Risk was introduced despite forecast relative
humidity around 30%. Given the potential for strong vertical mixing,
relative humidity will have to potential to fall much lower than
models currently suggest. An increase in initial attack and the
potential for significant wild fires across the Southern Plains will
continue to be evaluated with subsequent forecasts.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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