Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted 22 hours ago Administrators Share Posted 22 hours ago SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0430 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z Upper-level ridging will amplify briefly over the West late this week into the weekend before an upper-level trough breaks down the ridge this weekend into early next week. Above normal temperatures will stretch from the Deep South and Gulf Coast across much of the central and western US ahead of the upper-level trough. Deep upper-level troughing will move into the Great Lakes and Northeast this weekend into early next week further amplifying the upper-level pattern over the CONUS. ...Day 3/Friday... Dry/breezy post-frontal conditions are likely on portions of the southern/central Plains into the Midwest Day 3/Friday, but unlikely to meet critical criteria, with locally elevated conditions the most likely outcome. Recent and forecast rainfall will also help mitigate these fire weather concerns. ...Day 5/Sunday - Day 7/Tuesday... Dry/windy conditions are likely to develop across portions of the Great Basin Day 5/Sunday ahead of the upper-level trough. However, current forecast guidance indicates that these conditions are likely to overlap areas that received precipitation recently. On Day 6/Sunday, critical winds/RH are forecast across areas with dry fuels in southern Arizona/vicinity that missed the recent precipitation event. More widespread critical winds/RH are forecast on Day 6/Monday - Day 7/Tuesday from the southern Great Basin through the Southwest onto portions of the southern/central High Plains into the Midwest. However, recent rainfall and fuels conditions are currently precluding larger or additional 40% outlook areas. Additionally, there remains some uncertainty regarding the latitude and timing of the trough, which affects the moisture return, downslope winds, and dryline placement on the southern/central Plains. Above normal temperatures, low RH, and periods of breezy winds are forecast between now and this weekend, which could cure fuels enough to expand and add probabilities of critical conditions in future outlooks. Late in the outlook period, there is potential for northerly/offshore winds across portions of California. However, there remains too much uncertainty to introduce probabilities at this time. ..Nauslar.. 10/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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