SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0430 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024

Valid 251200Z - 311200Z

Upper-level ridging will amplify briefly over the West late this
week into the weekend before an upper-level trough breaks down the
ridge this weekend into early next week. Above normal temperatures
will stretch from the Deep South and Gulf Coast across much of the
central and western US ahead of the upper-level trough. Deep
upper-level troughing will move into the Great Lakes and Northeast
this weekend into early next week further amplifying the upper-level
pattern over the CONUS. 

...Day 3/Friday...
Dry/breezy post-frontal conditions are likely on portions of the
southern/central Plains into the Midwest Day 3/Friday, but unlikely
to meet critical criteria, with locally elevated conditions the most
likely outcome. Recent and forecast rainfall will also help mitigate
these fire weather concerns. 

...Day 5/Sunday - Day 7/Tuesday...
Dry/windy conditions are likely to develop across portions of the
Great Basin Day 5/Sunday ahead of the upper-level trough. However,
current forecast guidance indicates that these conditions are likely
to overlap areas that received precipitation recently. On Day
6/Sunday, critical winds/RH are forecast across areas with dry fuels
in southern Arizona/vicinity that missed the recent precipitation
event. 

More widespread critical winds/RH are forecast on Day 6/Monday - Day
7/Tuesday from the southern Great Basin through the Southwest onto
portions of the southern/central High Plains into the Midwest.
However, recent rainfall and fuels conditions are currently
precluding larger or additional 40% outlook areas. Additionally,
there remains some uncertainty regarding the latitude and timing of
the trough, which affects the moisture return, downslope winds, and
dryline placement on the southern/central Plains. Above normal
temperatures, low RH, and periods of breezy winds are forecast
between now and this weekend, which could cure fuels enough to
expand and add probabilities of critical conditions in future
outlooks.

Late in the outlook period, there is potential for
northerly/offshore winds across portions of California. However,
there remains too much uncertainty to introduce probabilities at
this time.

..Nauslar.. 10/23/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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