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NorthGeorgiaWX

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  1. NorthGeorgiaWX
    The main focus on this article is not to make a winter forecast, but  to explore what effects El Nino's and teleconnections have on winter weather across the southeast. One of the main sources of data in this report comes from a weather friend of mine that I call "Brother Larry". Larry would prefer to remain anonymous, so from here on out you'll hear me refer to Larry as "Brother Larry". :-)  Larry has a wealth of information about the weather history in Georgia, and I'll be using a lot of his findings to help give you an idea how this winter may turn out, based on the environment created by the El Nino, as well as several other factors. Again, this data is based on analog years, or those years that most closely identify with the current patterns, so keep that in mind. Analog's are not perfect, but they do give us a very good idea about how things have happened in the past and how they may happen again in the future. 

    Again, almost all of the text below (other than a few of my own edits and additions) is from Larry, and he gets all the credit for the research and stats. ​ ENSO and Southeast US  Winters
    This data was compiled by taking a list of 26 “cold” US winters (Dec/Jan/Feb) since 1894 -1895 (i.e., the coldest 23%) for the eastern third of the US. This requires solid, widespread, below normal anomalies, and requires the southeast to be pretty chilly itself. The two maps to the right were created with data from the list of years below, but that dataset only goes back to 1948, so the maps I'm displaying are not 100% complete with the years in the list. Here's the list of those winters, and you can see the years I used on the maps themselves. 
    Also, Larry's 26 coldest winters study was done the better part of 10 years back, since then, it is possible that some of 09, 10, 13, 14, etc. could be added, although he is not reassessing those now. 2002 - 2003 1995 - 1996 1993 - 1994 1981 - 1982 1980 - 1981 1978 - 1979 1977 - 1978 1976 - 1977 1969 - 1970 1968 - 1969 1967 - 1968 1963 - 1964 1962 - 1963 1960 - 1961 1947 - 1948 1939 - 1940 1935 - 1936 1917 - 1918 1911 - 1912 1909 - 1910 1904 - 1905 1903 - 1904 1901 - 1902 1900 - 1901 1898 - 1899 1894 - 1895 Temperature Anomalies Precipitation Nino Base State
    ENSO Regions ONI Chart from Golden Gate Weather Services - http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.png Forecast So now that we have our list of base years, let's look at the base Nino state for those winters. Before we can do that, we need to take a look at the various Nino/Nina classifications. Graphs and Charts

    The Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) has become the standard that NOAA uses for identifying El Niño (warm) and La Niña (cool) events in the tropical Pacific.  The ONI is defined as the running 3-month mean SST anomaly for the Niño 3.4 region (i.e., 50N-50S, 120W-170W).  Events are defined as 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods at or above the +0.5 anomaly for warm (El Niño) events and at or below the -0.5 anomaly for cold (La Niña) events.  The threshold is further broken down into: Weak (with a 0.5 to 0.9 SST anomaly) Moderate (1.0 to 1.4) Strong (1.5 to 1.9) Very Strong (≥ 2.0)  For the purpose of this blog post, for an event to be categorized as weak, moderate, strong or very strong, it must have equaled or exceeded the threshold for at least 3 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods. Here's an analysis of the 26 cold winters by ENSO state: Strong Nino: 0 of 26 (0%) Moderate Nino: 1 of 26 (4%) Weak Nino: 9 of 26 (35%) Neutral positive: 4 of 26 (15%) Neutral negative: 5 of 26 (19%) Weak Nina: 6 of 26 (23%) Moderate Nina: 1 of 26 (4%) Strong Nina: 0 of 26 (0%) Dec-Feb temperature anomalies during weak Nino's Notice that out of all the cold years, the majority of them occurred during weak Nino's (35%). Also notice that out of all of those cold winters, none of them occurred with a strong Nino or a strong Nina. 

    The map on the left depicts the temperature anomalies that occurred during a Weak Nino. Due to the data only going back to 1948, all of the years are not depicted, but this will give you a good idea. 

    As you can see, a weak Nino is what we'd like to see come Dec-Feb. If the current one stays too strong, it could severely limit our cold this winter based on past analogs. keep in mind, Larry's study is based on temperatures, not precipitation.  ​ ​Nino and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
    +PDO or Warm State -PDO or Cold State PDO Index (http://www.daculaweather.com/4_pdo_index.php) While it's easy to look at one specific weather pattern, there are many factors that determine how a winter will turn out, with the ENSO state being just one of those. But there are other teleconnections and long term patterns that also have an effect on our winter weather, and they all work in tandem with each other.  Graphs and Charts

    Now we are going to turn our attention to the PDO state or Pacific Decadal Oscillation. First, the definition from the National Center for Environmental Information:

    "The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is often described as a long-lived El Niño-like pattern of Pacific climate variability (Zhang et al. 1997). As seen with the better-known El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), extremes in the PDO pattern are marked by widespread variations in the Pacific Basin and the North American climate. In parallel with the ENSO phenomenon, the extreme phases of the PDO have been classified as being either warm or cool, as defined by ocean temperature anomalies in the northeast and tropical Pacific Ocean. When SSTs are anomalously cool in the interior North Pacific and warm along the Pacific Coast, and when sea level pressures are below average over the North Pacific, the PDO has a positive value. When the climate anomaly patterns are reversed, with warm SST anomalies in the interior and cool SST anomalies along the North American coast, or above average sea level pressures over the North Pacific, the PDO has a negative value (Courtesy of Mantua, 1999). " 

    Here's an analysis of the cold 26 winters by DJF averaged PDO status:+ PDO: 18 of 58 (31%) - PDO: 8 of 57 (14%) Again, much as it was with weak Nino's, many of our coldest winters occurred during a + PDO state, while only 8 out of 57 occurred during a negative PDO state. ​ Nino and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
    In order for us to get long lasting cold air that stays locked in, we need some blocking. There are several teleconnection patterns that aid in developing this blocking, one of which is the North Atlantic Oscillation or NAO. Graphs and Charts
    Negative NAO (-NAO) Positive NAO (+NAO) Here's the definition of the NAO:
    "The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a climatic phenomenon in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of atmospheric pressure at sea level between the Icelandic low and the Azores high. Through fluctuations in the strength of the Icelandic low and the Azores high, it controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. It is part of the Arctic Oscillation, and varies over time with no particular periodicity."
    Strong positive phases of the NAO tend to be associated with above-average temperatures in the eastern United States and across northern Europe and below-average temperatures in Greenland and oftentimes across southern Europe and the Middle East. They are also associated with above-average precipitation over northern Europe and Scandinavia in winter, and below-average precipitation over southern and central Europe. Opposite patterns of temperature and precipitation anomalies are typically observed during strong negative phases of the NAO. For us, negative is what we're looking for in the winter. 

    Let's take a look at the analysis of the cold 26 Dec-Feb winters by averaged NAO status:

    – NAO: 19 of 48 (40%) + NAO: 7 of 67 (10%) Again, a large number of the cold winters had a negative NAO. ​​ Piecing It All Together...
    Now let's take the combination of the ENSO state (in our case, Nino), and factor in the PDO and NAO and let's see what we get. Here's the analysis of the 26 cold winters by a combination of Dec-Feb averaged PDO and NAO status:+ PDO/-NAO: 12 of 25 (46%) - PDO/-NAO: 7 of 23 (30%) (all 7 had (PDO – NAO) > 0) + PDO/+NAO: 6 of 33 (18%) - PDO/+NAO: 1 of 34 (3%) Things start to change a little. Obviously, the combination of +PDO and -NAO are the best combination, and that makes perfect sense. During the positive phase of the PDO, the wintertime Aleutian low is deepened and shifted southward, warm/humid air is advected along the North American west coast and temperatures are higher than usual from the Pacific Northwest to Alaska but below normal in Mexico and the southeastern United States. Add the effects of the blocking provided by the NAO and you lock in the cold air instead of having it rush out to sea.  Now, let's really lay it out.
    Here's "Brother Larry's" analysis of the 26 cold winters by a combination of ENSO state and Dec-Feb averaged PDO and NAO status:

    Strong Nino:+PDO/-NAO: 0 of 6 (0%) -PDO/-NAO: 0 of 1 (0%) +PDO/+NAO: 0 of 7 (0%) -PDO/+NAO: 0 of 1 (0%)
    Moderate Nino:+PDO/-NAO: 1 of 2 (50%) -PDO/-NAO: 0 of 0 (N/A) +PDO/+NAO: 0 of 0 (N/A) -PDO/+NAO: 0 of 2 (0%)
    Weak Nino:+PDO/-NAO: 6 of 7 (86%) -PDO/-NAO: 2 of 2 (100%) +PDO/+NAO: 1 of 2 (50%) -PDO/+NAO: 0 of 4 (0%)
    Neutral Positive:+PDO/-NAO: 2 of 4 (50%) -PDO/-NAO: 0 of 3 (0%) +PDO/+NAO: 2 of 10 (20%) -PDO/+NAO: 0 of 5 (0%)
    Neutral Negative:+PDO/-NAO: 1 of 3 (33%) -PDO/-NAO: 2 of 7 (29%) +PDO/+NAO: 2 of 10 (20%) -PDO/+NAO: 0 of 5 (0%)
    Weak Nina:+PDO/-NAO: 2 of 2 (100%) -PDO/-NAO: 3 of 5 (60%) +PDO/+NAO: 1 of 4 (25%) -PDO/+NAO: 0 of 7 (0%)
    Moderate Nina:+PDO/-NAO: 0 of 1 (0%) -PDO/-NAO: 0 of 3 (0%) +PDO/+NAO: 0 of 0 (N/A) -PDO/+NAO: 1 of 4 (25%)
    Strong Nina:+PDO/-NAO: 0 of 0 (N/A) -PDO/-NAO: 0 of 2 (0%) +PDO/+NAO: 0 of 0 (N/A) -PDO/+NAO: 0 of 6 (0%) Conclusions...
    Weak Nino’s give the highest percentage chance for cold of any of the ENSO states by far (with weak Nina’s second); however, a combo of -PDO/+NAO seems to make it difficult even for weak Nino’s. A very impressive 13 of 16 (81%) of the aggregate of weak Nino's and weak Nina's with -NAO were cold. Don't ever bet on cold with either a strong Nino or a strong Nina since none of the 23 were cold. +PDO about doubles the percent chance for cold versus a -PDO. A -NAO more than doubles the percentage chance for cold versus a +NAO and a somewhat higher chance than a +PDO gives. So, I give small edge to –NAO over a +PDO regarding cold prospects. Regardless, both are very important. A +PDO/-NAO combo gives close to twice the percentage chance for cold versus the percentage chance for all PDO/NAO combos in the aggregate. A -PDO/-NAO is the next best combo for cold prospects, but mainly if NAO is more negative than PDO. Don't ever bet on cold with a combination of -PDO/+NAO, since only 1 out of 34 were cold. If there is a +PDO, the chances for a –NAO appear to be high for only weak to moderate Nino’s. The chances appear to only be about 50-50 for strong Nino’s. For neutral ENSO, the chances seem to be surprisingly low (partial negative correlation suggested). The best shot at a +PDO/-NAO combo appears to be with a weak to moderate Nino's. On the other hand, only 3 of 34 (9%) Nina’s had a +PDO/-NAO. A pretty high 17 of 34 (50%) Nina’s had a –PDO/+NAO. A +PDO is difficult with a moderate to strong Nina. Only one out of 16 (6%) had one. A –PDO seems rather difficult with a strong Nino, only 2 out of 15 (13%) had one. +PDO and –PDO winters are about evenly split. But +NAO winters have been a bit more common than -NAO in long term: 58% vs. 42%. Winter Precipitation
    Regarding wintry precipitation for Atlanta, when looking at the three standalone super Nino's (1972-1973, 1982 -1983, 1997-1998) as well as the six strong to super strong 2nd year Nino's (1877-1888, 1888-1889, 1896-1887, 1905-1906, 1940-1941, 1987-1988), Atlanta more often than not, had one major winter storm, but not always:1877-1888: 2.5" 1/3/1878 & a non-major freezing rain followed on 1/9/1878 1888-1889: 6" 2/21/1889 1896-1967: 6.2" 12/2/1896 1905-1906: 6.2" for the season including 3.5"+ major 1/26/1906, measurable snow D, J, and F 1940 -1941: only T of snow 1972 -1973: historic ZR 1/7-8/1973, which included 1" mainly ice pellets; (also, historic snow hit central GA in Feb though Atlanta missed that one) 1982 -1983: 10.3" S/IP for season including 7.9" 3/24/1983 (heaviest since 1940) and measurable snow J, F, and M 1987- 1988: 4.2" of mainly IP 1/7/1988 (would have been ~8" if all snow) 1997- 1998: only 0.6" 12/29/1997 View the full article
  2. NorthGeorgiaWX
    The main focus on this article is not to make a winter forecast, but  to explore what effects El Nino's and teleconnections have on winter weather across the southeast. One of the main sources of data in this report comes from a weather friend of mine that I call "Brother Larry". Larry would prefer to remain anonymous, so from here on out you'll hear me refer to Larry as "Brother Larry". :-)  Larry has a wealth of information about the weather history in Georgia, and I'll be using a lot of his findings to help give you an idea how this winter may turn out, based on the environment created by the El Nino, as well as several other factors. Again, this data is based on analog years, or those years that most closely identify with the current patterns, so keep that in mind. Analog's are not perfect, but they do give us a very good idea about how things have happened in the past and how they may happen again in the future. 

    Again, almost all of the text below (other than a few of my own edits and additions) is from Larry, and he gets all the credit for the research and stats. ​ ENSO and Southeast US  Winters
    This data was compiled by taking a list of 26 “cold” US winters (Dec/Jan/Feb) since 1894 -1895 (i.e., the coldest 23%) for the eastern third of the US. This requires solid, widespread, below normal anomalies, and requires the southeast to be pretty chilly itself. The two maps to the right were created with data from the list of years below, but that dataset only goes back to 1948, so the maps I'm displaying are not 100% complete with the years in the list. Here's the list of those winters, and you can see the years I used on the maps themselves. 
    Also, Larry's 26 coldest winters study was done the better part of 10 years back, since then, it is possible that some of 09, 10, 13, 14, etc. could be added, although he is not reassessing those now. 2002 - 2003 1995 - 1996 1993 - 1994 1981 - 1982 1980 - 1981 1978 - 1979 1977 - 1978 1976 - 1977 1969 - 1970 1968 - 1969 1967 - 1968 1963 - 1964 1962 - 1963 1960 - 1961 1947 - 1948 1939 - 1940 1935 - 1936 1917 - 1918 1911 - 1912 1909 - 1910 1904 - 1905 1903 - 1904 1901 - 1902 1900 - 1901 1898 - 1899 1894 - 1895 Temperature Anomalies Precipitation Nino Base State
    ENSO Regions ONI Chart from Golden Gate Weather Services - http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.png Forecast So now that we have our list of base years, let's look at the base Nino state for those winters. Before we can do that, we need to take a look at the various Nino/Nina classifications. Graphs and Charts

    The Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) has become the standard that NOAA uses for identifying El Niño (warm) and La Niña (cool) events in the tropical Pacific.  The ONI is defined as the running 3-month mean SST anomaly for the Niño 3.4 region (i.e., 50N-50S, 120W-170W).  Events are defined as 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods at or above the +0.5 anomaly for warm (El Niño) events and at or below the -0.5 anomaly for cold (La Niña) events.  The threshold is further broken down into: Weak (with a 0.5 to 0.9 SST anomaly) Moderate (1.0 to 1.4) Strong (1.5 to 1.9) Very Strong (≥ 2.0)  For the purpose of this blog post, for an event to be categorized as weak, moderate, strong or very strong, it must have equaled or exceeded the threshold for at least 3 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods. Here's an analysis of the 26 cold winters by ENSO state: Strong Nino: 0 of 26 (0%) Moderate Nino: 1 of 26 (4%) Weak Nino: 9 of 26 (35%) Neutral positive: 4 of 26 (15%) Neutral negative: 5 of 26 (19%) Weak Nina: 6 of 26 (23%) Moderate Nina: 1 of 26 (4%) Strong Nina: 0 of 26 (0%) Dec-Feb temperature anomalies during weak Nino's Notice that out of all the cold years, the majority of them occurred during weak Nino's (35%). Also notice that out of all of those cold winters, none of them occurred with a strong Nino or a strong Nina. 

    The map on the left depicts the temperature anomalies that occurred during a Weak Nino. Due to the data only going back to 1948, all of the years are not depicted, but this will give you a good idea. 

    As you can see, a weak Nino is what we'd like to see come Dec-Feb. If the current one stays too strong, it could severely limit our cold this winter based on past analogs. keep in mind, Larry's study is based on temperatures, not precipitation.  ​ ​Nino and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
    +PDO or Warm State -PDO or Cold State PDO Index (http://www.daculaweather.com/4_pdo_index.php) While it's easy to look at one specific weather pattern, there are many factors that determine how a winter will turn out, with the ENSO state being just one of those. But there are other teleconnections and long term patterns that also have an effect on our winter weather, and they all work in tandem with each other.  Graphs and Charts

    Now we are going to turn our attention to the PDO state or Pacific Decadal Oscillation. First, the definition from the National Center for Environmental Information:

    "The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is often described as a long-lived El Niño-like pattern of Pacific climate variability (Zhang et al. 1997). As seen with the better-known El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), extremes in the PDO pattern are marked by widespread variations in the Pacific Basin and the North American climate. In parallel with the ENSO phenomenon, the extreme phases of the PDO have been classified as being either warm or cool, as defined by ocean temperature anomalies in the northeast and tropical Pacific Ocean. When SSTs are anomalously cool in the interior North Pacific and warm along the Pacific Coast, and when sea level pressures are below average over the North Pacific, the PDO has a positive value. When the climate anomaly patterns are reversed, with warm SST anomalies in the interior and cool SST anomalies along the North American coast, or above average sea level pressures over the North Pacific, the PDO has a negative value (Courtesy of Mantua, 1999). " 

    Here's an analysis of the cold 26 winters by DJF averaged PDO status:+ PDO: 18 of 58 (31%) - PDO: 8 of 57 (14%) Again, much as it was with weak Nino's, many of our coldest winters occurred during a + PDO state, while only 8 out of 57 occurred during a negative PDO state. ​ Nino and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
    In order for us to get long lasting cold air that stays locked in, we need some blocking. There are several teleconnection patterns that aid in developing this blocking, one of which is the North Atlantic Oscillation or NAO. Graphs and Charts
    Negative NAO (-NAO) Positive NAO (+NAO) Here's the definition of the NAO:
    "The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a climatic phenomenon in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of atmospheric pressure at sea level between the Icelandic low and the Azores high. Through fluctuations in the strength of the Icelandic low and the Azores high, it controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. It is part of the Arctic Oscillation, and varies over time with no particular periodicity."
    Strong positive phases of the NAO tend to be associated with above-average temperatures in the eastern United States and across northern Europe and below-average temperatures in Greenland and oftentimes across southern Europe and the Middle East. They are also associated with above-average precipitation over northern Europe and Scandinavia in winter, and below-average precipitation over southern and central Europe. Opposite patterns of temperature and precipitation anomalies are typically observed during strong negative phases of the NAO. For us, negative is what we're looking for in the winter. 

    Let's take a look at the analysis of the cold 26 Dec-Feb winters by averaged NAO status:

    – NAO: 19 of 48 (40%) + NAO: 7 of 67 (10%) Again, a large number of the cold winters had a negative NAO. ​​ Piecing It All Together...
    Now let's take the combination of the ENSO state (in our case, Nino), and factor in the PDO and NAO and let's see what we get. Here's the analysis of the 26 cold winters by a combination of Dec-Feb averaged PDO and NAO status:+ PDO/-NAO: 12 of 25 (46%) - PDO/-NAO: 7 of 23 (30%) (all 7 had (PDO – NAO) > 0) + PDO/+NAO: 6 of 33 (18%) - PDO/+NAO: 1 of 34 (3%) Things start to change a little. Obviously, the combination of +PDO and -NAO are the best combination, and that makes perfect sense. During the positive phase of the PDO, the wintertime Aleutian low is deepened and shifted southward, warm/humid air is advected along the North American west coast and temperatures are higher than usual from the Pacific Northwest to Alaska but below normal in Mexico and the southeastern United States. Add the effects of the blocking provided by the NAO and you lock in the cold air instead of having it rush out to sea.  Now, let's really lay it out.
    Here's "Brother Larry's" analysis of the 26 cold winters by a combination of ENSO state and Dec-Feb averaged PDO and NAO status:

    Strong Nino:+PDO/-NAO: 0 of 6 (0%) -PDO/-NAO: 0 of 1 (0%) +PDO/+NAO: 0 of 7 (0%) -PDO/+NAO: 0 of 1 (0%)
    Moderate Nino:+PDO/-NAO: 1 of 2 (50%) -PDO/-NAO: 0 of 0 (N/A) +PDO/+NAO: 0 of 0 (N/A) -PDO/+NAO: 0 of 2 (0%)
    Weak Nino:+PDO/-NAO: 6 of 7 (86%) -PDO/-NAO: 2 of 2 (100%) +PDO/+NAO: 1 of 2 (50%) -PDO/+NAO: 0 of 4 (0%)
    Neutral Positive:+PDO/-NAO: 2 of 4 (50%) -PDO/-NAO: 0 of 3 (0%) +PDO/+NAO: 2 of 10 (20%) -PDO/+NAO: 0 of 5 (0%)
    Neutral Negative:+PDO/-NAO: 1 of 3 (33%) -PDO/-NAO: 2 of 7 (29%) +PDO/+NAO: 2 of 10 (20%) -PDO/+NAO: 0 of 5 (0%)
    Weak Nina:+PDO/-NAO: 2 of 2 (100%) -PDO/-NAO: 3 of 5 (60%) +PDO/+NAO: 1 of 4 (25%) -PDO/+NAO: 0 of 7 (0%)
    Moderate Nina:+PDO/-NAO: 0 of 1 (0%) -PDO/-NAO: 0 of 3 (0%) +PDO/+NAO: 0 of 0 (N/A) -PDO/+NAO: 1 of 4 (25%)
    Strong Nina:+PDO/-NAO: 0 of 0 (N/A) -PDO/-NAO: 0 of 2 (0%) +PDO/+NAO: 0 of 0 (N/A) -PDO/+NAO: 0 of 6 (0%) Conclusions...
    Weak Nino’s give the highest percentage chance for cold of any of the ENSO states by far (with weak Nina’s second); however, a combo of -PDO/+NAO seems to make it difficult even for weak Nino’s. A very impressive 13 of 16 (81%) of the aggregate of weak Nino's and weak Nina's with -NAO were cold. Don't ever bet on cold with either a strong Nino or a strong Nina since none of the 23 were cold. +PDO about doubles the percent chance for cold versus a -PDO. A -NAO more than doubles the percentage chance for cold versus a +NAO and a somewhat higher chance than a +PDO gives. So, I give small edge to –NAO over a +PDO regarding cold prospects. Regardless, both are very important. A +PDO/-NAO combo gives close to twice the percentage chance for cold versus the percentage chance for all PDO/NAO combos in the aggregate. A -PDO/-NAO is the next best combo for cold prospects, but mainly if NAO is more negative than PDO. Don't ever bet on cold with a combination of -PDO/+NAO, since only 1 out of 34 were cold. If there is a +PDO, the chances for a –NAO appear to be high for only weak to moderate Nino’s. The chances appear to only be about 50-50 for strong Nino’s. For neutral ENSO, the chances seem to be surprisingly low (partial negative correlation suggested). The best shot at a +PDO/-NAO combo appears to be with a weak to moderate Nino's. On the other hand, only 3 of 34 (9%) Nina’s had a +PDO/-NAO. A pretty high 17 of 34 (50%) Nina’s had a –PDO/+NAO. A +PDO is difficult with a moderate to strong Nina. Only one out of 16 (6%) had one. A –PDO seems rather difficult with a strong Nino, only 2 out of 15 (13%) had one. +PDO and –PDO winters are about evenly split. But +NAO winters have been a bit more common than -NAO in long term: 58% vs. 42%. Winter Precipitation
    Regarding wintry precipitation for Atlanta, when looking at the three standalone super Nino's (1972-1973, 1982 -1983, 1997-1998) as well as the six strong to super strong 2nd year Nino's (1877-1888, 1888-1889, 1896-1887, 1905-1906, 1940-1941, 1987-1988), Atlanta more often than not, had one major winter storm, but not always:1877-1888: 2.5" 1/3/1878 & a non-major freezing rain followed on 1/9/1878 1888-1889: 6" 2/21/1889 1896-1967: 6.2" 12/2/1896 1905-1906: 6.2" for the season including 3.5"+ major 1/26/1906, measurable snow D, J, and F 1940 -1941: only T of snow 1972 -1973: historic ZR 1/7-8/1973, which included 1" mainly ice pellets; (also, historic snow hit central GA in Feb though Atlanta missed that one) 1982 -1983: 10.3" S/IP for season including 7.9" 3/24/1983 (heaviest since 1940) and measurable snow J, F, and M 1987- 1988: 4.2" of mainly IP 1/7/1988 (would have been ~8" if all snow) 1997- 1998: only 0.6" 12/29/1997 View the full article
  3. NorthGeorgiaWX
    The main focus on this article is not to make a winter forecast, but  to explore what effects El Nino's and teleconnections have on winter weather across the southeast. One of the main sources of data in this report comes from a weather friend of mine that I call "Brother Larry". Larry would prefer to remain anonymous, so from here on out you'll hear me refer to Larry as "Brother Larry". :-)  Larry has a wealth of information about the weather history in Georgia, and I'll be using a lot of his findings to help give you an idea how this winter may turn out, based on the environment created by the El Nino, as well as several other factors. Again, this data is based on analog years, or those years that most closely identify with the current patterns, so keep that in mind. Analog's are not perfect, but they do give us a very good idea about how things have happened in the past and how they may happen again in the future. 

    Again, almost all of the text below (other than a few of my own edits and additions) is from Larry, and he gets all the credit for the research and stats. ​ ENSO and Southeast US  Winters
    This data was compiled by taking a list of 26 “cold” US winters (Dec/Jan/Feb) since 1894 -1895 (i.e., the coldest 23%) for the eastern third of the US. This requires solid, widespread, below normal anomalies, and requires the southeast to be pretty chilly itself. The two maps to the right were created with data from the list of years below, but that dataset only goes back to 1948, so the maps I'm displaying are not 100% complete with the years in the list. Here's the list of those winters, and you can see the years I used on the maps themselves. 
    Also, Larry's 26 coldest winters study was done the better part of 10 years back, since then, it is possible that some of 09, 10, 13, 14, etc. could be added, although he is not reassessing those now. 2002 - 2003 1995 - 1996 1993 - 1994 1981 - 1982 1980 - 1981 1978 - 1979 1977 - 1978 1976 - 1977 1969 - 1970 1968 - 1969 1967 - 1968 1963 - 1964 1962 - 1963 1960 - 1961 1947 - 1948 1939 - 1940 1935 - 1936 1917 - 1918 1911 - 1912 1909 - 1910 1904 - 1905 1903 - 1904 1901 - 1902 1900 - 1901 1898 - 1899 1894 - 1895 Temperature Anomalies Precipitation Nino Base State
    ENSO Regions ONI Chart from Golden Gate Weather Services - http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.png Forecast So now that we have our list of base years, let's look at the base Nino state for those winters. Before we can do that, we need to take a look at the various Nino/Nina classifications. Graphs and Charts

    The Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) has become the standard that NOAA uses for identifying El Niño (warm) and La Niña (cool) events in the tropical Pacific.  The ONI is defined as the running 3-month mean SST anomaly for the Niño 3.4 region (i.e., 50N-50S, 120W-170W).  Events are defined as 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods at or above the +0.5 anomaly for warm (El Niño) events and at or below the -0.5 anomaly for cold (La Niña) events.  The threshold is further broken down into: Weak (with a 0.5 to 0.9 SST anomaly) Moderate (1.0 to 1.4) Strong (1.5 to 1.9) Very Strong (≥ 2.0)  For the purpose of this blog post, for an event to be categorized as weak, moderate, strong or very strong, it must have equaled or exceeded the threshold for at least 3 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods. Here's an analysis of the 26 cold winters by ENSO state: Strong Nino: 0 of 26 (0%) Moderate Nino: 1 of 26 (4%) Weak Nino: 9 of 26 (35%) Neutral positive: 4 of 26 (15%) Neutral negative: 5 of 26 (19%) Weak Nina: 6 of 26 (23%) Moderate Nina: 1 of 26 (4%) Strong Nina: 0 of 26 (0%) Dec-Feb temperature anomalies during weak Nino's Notice that out of all the cold years, the majority of them occurred during weak Nino's (35%). Also notice that out of all of those cold winters, none of them occurred with a strong Nino or a strong Nina. 

    The map on the left depicts the temperature anomalies that occurred during a Weak Nino. Due to the data only going back to 1948, all of the years are not depicted, but this will give you a good idea. 

    As you can see, a weak Nino is what we'd like to see come Dec-Feb. If the current one stays too strong, it could severely limit our cold this winter based on past analogs. keep in mind, Larry's study is based on temperatures, not precipitation.  ​ ​Nino and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
    +PDO or Warm State -PDO or Cold State PDO Index (http://www.daculaweather.com/4_pdo_index.php) While it's easy to look at one specific weather pattern, there are many factors that determine how a winter will turn out, with the ENSO state being just one of those. But there are other teleconnections and long term patterns that also have an effect on our winter weather, and they all work in tandem with each other.  Graphs and Charts

    Now we are going to turn our attention to the PDO state or Pacific Decadal Oscillation. First, the definition from the National Center for Environmental Information:

    "The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is often described as a long-lived El Niño-like pattern of Pacific climate variability (Zhang et al. 1997). As seen with the better-known El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), extremes in the PDO pattern are marked by widespread variations in the Pacific Basin and the North American climate. In parallel with the ENSO phenomenon, the extreme phases of the PDO have been classified as being either warm or cool, as defined by ocean temperature anomalies in the northeast and tropical Pacific Ocean. When SSTs are anomalously cool in the interior North Pacific and warm along the Pacific Coast, and when sea level pressures are below average over the North Pacific, the PDO has a positive value. When the climate anomaly patterns are reversed, with warm SST anomalies in the interior and cool SST anomalies along the North American coast, or above average sea level pressures over the North Pacific, the PDO has a negative value (Courtesy of Mantua, 1999). " 

    Here's an analysis of the cold 26 winters by DJF averaged PDO status:+ PDO: 18 of 58 (31%) - PDO: 8 of 57 (14%) Again, much as it was with weak Nino's, many of our coldest winters occurred during a + PDO state, while only 8 out of 57 occurred during a negative PDO state. ​ Nino and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
    In order for us to get long lasting cold air that stays locked in, we need some blocking. There are several teleconnection patterns that aid in developing this blocking, one of which is the North Atlantic Oscillation or NAO. Graphs and Charts
    Negative NAO (-NAO) Positive NAO (+NAO) Here's the definition of the NAO:
    "The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a climatic phenomenon in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of atmospheric pressure at sea level between the Icelandic low and the Azores high. Through fluctuations in the strength of the Icelandic low and the Azores high, it controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. It is part of the Arctic Oscillation, and varies over time with no particular periodicity."
    Strong positive phases of the NAO tend to be associated with above-average temperatures in the eastern United States and across northern Europe and below-average temperatures in Greenland and oftentimes across southern Europe and the Middle East. They are also associated with above-average precipitation over northern Europe and Scandinavia in winter, and below-average precipitation over southern and central Europe. Opposite patterns of temperature and precipitation anomalies are typically observed during strong negative phases of the NAO. For us, negative is what we're looking for in the winter. 

    Let's take a look at the analysis of the cold 26 Dec-Feb winters by averaged NAO status:

    – NAO: 19 of 48 (40%) + NAO: 7 of 67 (10%) Again, a large number of the cold winters had a negative NAO. ​​ Piecing It All Together...
    Now let's take the combination of the ENSO state (in our case, Nino), and factor in the PDO and NAO and let's see what we get. Here's the analysis of the 26 cold winters by a combination of Dec-Feb averaged PDO and NAO status:+ PDO/-NAO: 12 of 25 (46%) - PDO/-NAO: 7 of 23 (30%) (all 7 had (PDO – NAO) > 0) + PDO/+NAO: 6 of 33 (18%) - PDO/+NAO: 1 of 34 (3%) Things start to change a little. Obviously, the combination of +PDO and -NAO are the best combination, and that makes perfect sense. During the positive phase of the PDO, the wintertime Aleutian low is deepened and shifted southward, warm/humid air is advected along the North American west coast and temperatures are higher than usual from the Pacific Northwest to Alaska but below normal in Mexico and the southeastern United States. Add the effects of the blocking provided by the NAO and you lock in the cold air instead of having it rush out to sea.  Now, let's really lay it out.
    Here's "Brother Larry's" analysis of the 26 cold winters by a combination of ENSO state and Dec-Feb averaged PDO and NAO status:

    Strong Nino:+PDO/-NAO: 0 of 6 (0%) -PDO/-NAO: 0 of 1 (0%) +PDO/+NAO: 0 of 7 (0%) -PDO/+NAO: 0 of 1 (0%)
    Moderate Nino:+PDO/-NAO: 1 of 2 (50%) -PDO/-NAO: 0 of 0 (N/A) +PDO/+NAO: 0 of 0 (N/A) -PDO/+NAO: 0 of 2 (0%)
    Weak Nino:+PDO/-NAO: 6 of 7 (86%) -PDO/-NAO: 2 of 2 (100%) +PDO/+NAO: 1 of 2 (50%) -PDO/+NAO: 0 of 4 (0%)
    Neutral Positive:+PDO/-NAO: 2 of 4 (50%) -PDO/-NAO: 0 of 3 (0%) +PDO/+NAO: 2 of 10 (20%) -PDO/+NAO: 0 of 5 (0%)
    Neutral Negative:+PDO/-NAO: 1 of 3 (33%) -PDO/-NAO: 2 of 7 (29%) +PDO/+NAO: 2 of 10 (20%) -PDO/+NAO: 0 of 5 (0%)
    Weak Nina:+PDO/-NAO: 2 of 2 (100%) -PDO/-NAO: 3 of 5 (60%) +PDO/+NAO: 1 of 4 (25%) -PDO/+NAO: 0 of 7 (0%)
    Moderate Nina:+PDO/-NAO: 0 of 1 (0%) -PDO/-NAO: 0 of 3 (0%) +PDO/+NAO: 0 of 0 (N/A) -PDO/+NAO: 1 of 4 (25%)
    Strong Nina:+PDO/-NAO: 0 of 0 (N/A) -PDO/-NAO: 0 of 2 (0%) +PDO/+NAO: 0 of 0 (N/A) -PDO/+NAO: 0 of 6 (0%) Conclusions...
    Weak Nino’s give the highest percentage chance for cold of any of the ENSO states by far (with weak Nina’s second); however, a combo of -PDO/+NAO seems to make it difficult even for weak Nino’s. A very impressive 13 of 16 (81%) of the aggregate of weak Nino's and weak Nina's with -NAO were cold. Don't ever bet on cold with either a strong Nino or a strong Nina since none of the 23 were cold. +PDO about doubles the percent chance for cold versus a -PDO. A -NAO more than doubles the percentage chance for cold versus a +NAO and a somewhat higher chance than a +PDO gives. So, I give small edge to –NAO over a +PDO regarding cold prospects. Regardless, both are very important. A +PDO/-NAO combo gives close to twice the percentage chance for cold versus the percentage chance for all PDO/NAO combos in the aggregate. A -PDO/-NAO is the next best combo for cold prospects, but mainly if NAO is more negative than PDO. Don't ever bet on cold with a combination of -PDO/+NAO, since only 1 out of 34 were cold. If there is a +PDO, the chances for a –NAO appear to be high for only weak to moderate Nino’s. The chances appear to only be about 50-50 for strong Nino’s. For neutral ENSO, the chances seem to be surprisingly low (partial negative correlation suggested). The best shot at a +PDO/-NAO combo appears to be with a weak to moderate Nino's. On the other hand, only 3 of 34 (9%) Nina’s had a +PDO/-NAO. A pretty high 17 of 34 (50%) Nina’s had a –PDO/+NAO. A +PDO is difficult with a moderate to strong Nina. Only one out of 16 (6%) had one. A –PDO seems rather difficult with a strong Nino, only 2 out of 15 (13%) had one. +PDO and –PDO winters are about evenly split. But +NAO winters have been a bit more common than -NAO in long term: 58% vs. 42%. Winter Precipitation
    Regarding wintry precipitation for Atlanta, when looking at the three standalone super Nino's (1972-1973, 1982 -1983, 1997-1998) as well as the six strong to super strong 2nd year Nino's (1877-1888, 1888-1889, 1896-1887, 1905-1906, 1940-1941, 1987-1988), Atlanta more often than not, had one major winter storm, but not always:1877-1888: 2.5" 1/3/1878 & a non-major freezing rain followed on 1/9/1878 1888-1889: 6" 2/21/1889 1896-1967: 6.2" 12/2/1896 1905-1906: 6.2" for the season including 3.5"+ major 1/26/1906, measurable snow D, J, and F 1940 -1941: only T of snow 1972 -1973: historic ZR 1/7-8/1973, which included 1" mainly ice pellets; (also, historic snow hit central GA in Feb though Atlanta missed that one) 1982 -1983: 10.3" S/IP for season including 7.9" 3/24/1983 (heaviest since 1940) and measurable snow J, F, and M 1987- 1988: 4.2" of mainly IP 1/7/1988 (would have been ~8" if all snow) 1997- 1998: only 0.6" 12/29/1997 View the full article
  4. NorthGeorgiaWX

    Christmas Village Diorama - Part 4

    By NorthGeorgiaWX,


    Christmas Diorama
    10/11/16 - Yes, I will redo the pond. 
    Last night I started adding snow to the hills behind the houses. It's going to be a multi-layer process to get it just right. I want to make sure I pay attention to how the snow "falls" on things so that it really looks like fallen snow. It's almost ashamed to cover up all of the landscaping, but hey... that's winter.  If I had to do it over, I would also add more deciduous trees into the mix, and I would make it thicker. I may still add a few more trees just to try to make it more lush.
    The pond... yes, the pond has been a pain in my arse. I've learned a few lessons about water features. First, don't use any slope in the stream or creek if you want the water to have any depth. If you have a slope, the Realistic Water will just run down to the lowest level and not pool. What I've had to do to get around this issue is add dams to sections of the stream so the water collects instead of running off. Second, make sure you thoroughly cover the water feature in plaster. The Realistic Water will seep through any holes or other porous areas of the layout, and make it difficult to build up any depth. And speaking of depth, they really only recommend a 1/2" or less of Realistic Water. You might think that's not enough to make it appear deep, but it really is.  Woodland Scenic's makes a product called E-Z Water that you heat and pour and it can be used to make deeper pours. Unfortunately, I can't use it on top of the Realistic Water, but I can use Realistic Water on top of the E-Z Water. So I think I'll raise the pond back up some, and then use E-Z Water for the main pour this time, then maybe add some Realistic Water over the top. E-Z Water has to be used in one pour, you can't go back and add more or it will leave a transition line in the water, so the pour needs to be planned and setup ahead of time. 
    Icicles will be my next first time part of the project, but that will be easy, and  I will use a product called "Water Effects" to create those. You simply get a piece of wax paper and with a toothpick, draw out of lines of Water Effects on the wax paper. Once they dry (and they dry clear), you peel those off and tack them anywhere you want icicles.
    I'll have more pictures tonight as demolition begins on the pond. 🙂
    I added more plaster to the pond and covered up the water I put down. I needed to raise the bottom of the pond by about 1/2", so I mixed up some plaster and covered everything  up. I'll let that dry and then paint it a darker color before re-adding water. I do think I'll use E-Z Water on the pond so I can get it a little thicker. If I need to, I'll give it a top coat of Realistic Water mixed with a little white pigment to make it look like ice.
    Two days of snowfall in the mountains... 🙂 I'm starting to get a better accumulation of snow now. Not sure how deep I'll go, but I have a real desire to have a blizzard. 🙂 Of course that's probably just my own personal "what I'd like" kind of thing but hey... who's building this? 🙂
    The water in the stream is starting to look good and get some depth to it. At some point I'll add a little white pigment in places so it looks like certain areas are frozen. 
    The last image in this group shows the house with some snow that I added just a little around the base just to show how the edge around the base of the houses will be covered up. It looks really good too. 
      
      
      
     
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  5. NorthGeorgiaWX

    Christmas Village Diorama - Part 6

    By NorthGeorgiaWX,


    Christmas Diorama
    10/13/16 - Construction Accident
    Started added Realistic Water today. I thought I would use E-Z Water until I heard some bad stories about it eating up foam, and changed my mind. So it's going to take more than a few layers to get it where I want it. The roads around the pond will not be in the position you see now, I'm just playing around with placement. Started adding snow to the all areas of the layout where there are shrubs and plants, and that required me to take the two left houses off to keep them from getting sprayed by Scenic Cement. 
    The "construction crew" got a little careless when taking some of these pictures, and the camera strap caught one of the street lights... so now there is some utility repair work going on. Luckily, I had a spare street light, so that will get installed tomorrow after the pond dries. 
    I'm also playing with icicles and the waterfalls. I'm redoing the icicles to be smaller but they are easy to make, so if I mess up, no big deal.  
    There seems to be a creature in my forest... 😉
     
     
     
     
     
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  6. NorthGeorgiaWX

    Christmas Village Diorama - Part 1

    By NorthGeorgiaWX,


    Christmas Diorama
    I wrote a blog post on my old blog site back in 2016 about a Christmas Village Diorama that I was building, so I figured since we were coming up on Christmas, I would move the contents over here. Instead of one big post, I'll beak it up into several. 
    ------------------------------
    I apparently have more hobbies than I thought I had. 🙂
    My wife and I bought a bunch of Thomas Kinkade Hawthorne Christmas Village houses and buildings off of eBay to use as a Christmas display.  We put them out last year on some fluffy cotton stuff but being picky like I am, I just wasn't satisfied with that look at all, I wanted something that looked "real".
    My interest in model trains goes back to when I was a kid, and I had started looking at creating a detailed and realistic train layout when I remembered the Kinkade houses. I started searching the internet for some examples of designs where people had used the house in some designed setting but I couldn't really find anything, so I started thinking about creating my own winter scene. 
    So....here is where I'm at. First, I've never done anything like this before, so it was all new to me. Second, I spent a lot of time watching videos, reading up on materials, finding examples, and collecting images of scenes I wanted to duplicate, etc. After a lot of thought and consideration, I jumped in head first. And yes, I have messed up and still messing up. 🙂 The great thing is that if you don't like something, you rip it out and start over. 
    The Kinkade houses aren't exactly HO scale, but that's the closest scale to what the the houses are, so that's what I used. I don't have a lot of before images, but even these images are "before" as it is still in the working stage. I'll try to break these images into groups to help show the progression of the build from this point forward.
    I wanted to quote a piece from the Thomas Kinkade website, and it says perfectly what I was trying to capture in creating this diorama:
    "The look of Christmas, with its trees and garlands and twinkling lights, is of course well known. But for Thomas Kinkade, the challenge in painting Christmas scenes was capturing the spirit of the holiday – the warmth, the joy, the good fellowship and family feeling. He loved the contrast of the cold gleam of moonlight on snow with the warm radiance of golden light pouring through the windows of a festively decorated cottage. That golden glow is truly the light of love."
    These are some of the images that I used to help me in the inspiration and design of the Christmas Village, and of course they are all Thomas Kinkade paintings. I tried to incorporate as much of his scenes as I practically could into the diorama. 
          
         
      
    This first group of images were taken after some very basic landscaping had been done. The original pond had to be redone when I realized that its elevation was higher than the stream that was feeding it. 🙂 I blame the clown that is working on it now... :-). I may need to redo it again as I probably dug it too low this time. 😞 I'll get it right eventually.  
    I created a wooden frame for the base and glued sheets of foam over the top and the dimensions are 60"x24". The elevated areas were created using wads of paper and plaster cloth along with pieces of foam cut to shape.  Almost all of my supplies comes from Woodland Scenic and they probably have the most complete set of supplies and materials anywhere. Not only that, they have tons of how-to videos that show you how to use their products. There is no way I could do this without those videos showing the way.
        
     
    The remaining post will follow. 





     
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  7. NorthGeorgiaWX

    New England Trip 2019

    By NorthGeorgiaWX,


    New England Trip
    I found this old blog post on my old blog site, so I'm going to get it copied over here. I'd really like to get rid of the old site since I don't use it except to keep some old blog post. 
    ------------------------------------
    This is going to be the story of our two week vacation through the New England states, complete with all of the places we will see, things we will learn, and memories that we will make.  Amy and I will include as many pictures,  videos, links to the places and things we do, as well as any other information we can find to help document the  entire trip. (You know, just in case you'd like to go sometime 🙂
    When I was 16 years old my parents took us on a trip to the New England states and I still remember parts of that trip to this day. Since my wife Amy has never been to that part of the country (except for a trip to NYC), it will be a new experience for her and a great refresher for me, and there are a lot of places that we'll be going that I've never seen as well, so this ought to be fun!
    This is going to be a driving trip.  We thought about flying up and getting a rental car up there, but there are so many great places to see along the way, it would be a shame to not take the scenic route by driving versus flying. The total round trip length is about 3000 miles, so it's going to be a long haul with many days in the car. And since I didn't want to put that kind of mileage on my own vehicles,  we are renting a SUV (Ford Explorer supposedly) for the trip. We have most of the itinerary planned now, so I'll be posting maps and more details as we get closer in time. 
    Basically, we pick up the rental vehicle at on Wednesday the 29th, start the trip on the morning of the 30th,  and we return home on Wednesday, June the 12th.  During the time we are gone, we will pass through a total of 15 states, 11 of which Amy has never seen. On the way up we will travel through Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and into Massachusetts.  We will set up home in West Yarmouth (next to Hyannis, see map below) in Massachusetts for a stay at the Holly-Tree Inn condo. From there we'll spend almost an entire week exploring Cape Cod and the surrounding area before we embark on a two day drive up the coast to Bar Harbor Maine where we'll stay another two nights at the Coach Stop Inn Bed and Breakfast. We plan on getting off the beaten path and hug the coast as much as possible in order to see all the sights along the way. Our route will pass through a very small section of New Hampshire (Portsmouth) on our way into Maine, and we will be stopping at numerous places all along the coastline before staying at Kennebunk Friday night. The next morning (Saturday) we take the back roads that will lead use to Bar Harbor. Sunday morning after arriving in Bar Harbor, we have to get up REAL early so we can go capture the sunrise (the sunrise is 4:50 am!!!)  from Cadillac Mountain in Acadia National Park. From there we will drive up to the US-Canadian border at Eastport Maine, maybe see the "Old Sow",  the largest tidal whirlpool in the Western Hemisphere, and eat a lobster roll at Quoddy Bay Lobster before heading back to Bar Harbor. 
    The return trip begins after breakfast on Monday the 10th, and the first day on the road will lead us across the beautiful forest and mountains of northern New Hampshire. We stop for a three hour round trip ride on the Cog Railway to the top of Mount Washington before continuing the trip south along the Vermont/New Hampshire border where we'll stop to sleep in Woodstock, Vermont.  After an overnight rest, we get up early the next morning to begin a long day of driving  toward the Cave Hill Farm Bed and Breakfast in Virginia. Rising with the sun on Wednesday the 12th, we'll drive on a section of the Blue Ridge Parkway through Virginia and North Carolina before hopping back on the interstate to finish the trip home. 
    We have a lot of things planned while we're gone, like stopping at the Independence Hall in Philadelphia, taking the ferries to Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard islands for day trips, a  4 hour whale watching tour, a guided walking tour in Boston, a trip to the top of Mount Washington, and stops for what is supposed to be some of the best seafood ie... lobster) and lighthouses anywhere.  In between, there will be a thousand other things to see and do, and I hope we can capture it all so you can follow our fun.  
    I'll break all of this out by making a new post for each day of the trip, so we should end up with a minimum of 14 different post. I'm sure I will also create a special post or three for those special side trips, highlights, and activities that we do.  I'm also sure the post will be delayed since I can't spend all my time writing blog post 🙂 Who knows... I've never documented  a two week trip before.  I'm just winging it right now 😉

  8. NorthGeorgiaWX
    Here we go! Up early this morning for one of our two longest continuous stretches of driving. Our destination today is the Hyatt Regency at the inner harbor area of Baltimore Maryland. Thanks to @mudrun for all of the great information about the Baltimore area!
    This leg of the trip is about 650 miles and Google is estimating about 11 hours on the road, so it's going to be a long day. The plan is to leave at 4 am in order to miss rush hour traffic in Charlotte and DC.  The original plan was to travel I-85 to I-95, but after noticing that the back roads through Virginia only take 20 minutes longer, I think that's the route I'll take, and that's the route you see in the map above.  We'll get lots of pictures and videos along the way, and I'll be posting those as time permits. 
    We wanted to get past Washington DC to find a place to stay for the night, because early the next morning (Friday) we are going to Philadelphia to see Independence Hall and the Liberty Bell. I didn't want to have to battle early morning DC traffic and we need to be at Independence Visitor Center when it opens (you need tickets), so Baltimore was a good stopping point.   From our place in Baltimore, it's about 100 miles and a little less than a 2 hour drive to the Independence Hall parking. We need to be there at 8 am as they start selling tickets at 8:30 even though it doesn't open until 9. 
    I don't mind the long haul driving, we drive 8 hours one way to see my parents in Sarasota, and when I go to the SCCA National Championships in Lincoln Nebraska we drive for 14-15 hours. My longest drive was 22 straight hours from Atlanta to Boston once, so 11 is very pretty doable. And since I don't normally like to ride with other people driving, so unless I can't keep my eyes  open, I'm it. 🙂 With lots of different things to look at, the side roads won't be as boring as the interstates, so staying awake in broad daylight shouldn't be a problem.
    Update Friday AM: Well, we made it to Baltimore. No, not in 10-11 hours as planned, but instead it took us 15 HOURS to get here. If you think Atlanta traffic is bad, try DC traffic.  Let me say this... if you ever thought you might like to live in northern Virginia/Maryland... you'd better drive those roads before you decide. 
    One 14 miles stretch took 1:10 and after that the next 39 miles took 53 minutes. So 2 hours to go 53 miles. For those in Gwinnett that know the road, we took Lawrenceville Hwy all the way through Virginia. 🙂 Yes, highway 29 goes all the way through Virginia (NC too). For the most part, Hwy 29 was an awesome drive. The speed limit is lower, but it's a 4 lane divided highway, and you can sit back, stick it on cruise and relax. It's nothing like taking I-95. 
    We're off to our next overnight stop in Connecticut, this drive will be a lot shorter and we're going around NYC instead of through it.

  9. NorthGeorgiaWX

    Christmas Village Diorama - Part 9

    By NorthGeorgiaWX,


    Christmas Diorama
    10/18/16 - Adding final touches
    I started putting foam sheeting around the outsides of the box holding the diorama, and I bought some dark green paint to cover it all up. More water was added to the pond, and I went out and bought a blue LED light to give the snow a moonlit glow... I think it works pretty well and matches the example in the previous group of pictures perfectly.









     
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  10. NorthGeorgiaWX

    New England Trip 2019 - Day 4 - Nantucket

    By NorthGeorgiaWX,


    New England Trip
    This was our first big adventure (and our first blog post together!) after arriving in New England. Exploring Cape Cod on Sunday was nice and scenic and the National Seashore was very awesome, but our Monday Nantucket Island trip was even better. 

    This also happened to be our first ride on the high speed ferry. Because we were staying just a few miles from Hyannis, we were close to the Hy-Line ferry terminal. Hy-Line operates a fleet of high speed ferries to Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard and is the company we used for both island trips. 

     
    And high speed is an appropriate adjective to use as I clocked the Nantucket ride at 36 mph. This is not a little boat (158 feet) and it probably had at least 200 people on board, not to mention all of the luggage and other "freight" type baggage.  Being a guy... I was really interested in how they made this thing move so fast... and the reason is below.
     
    The Grey Lady IV is the newest vessel of the Hy-Line fleet. It is one of the few high speed ferries that has 3 passenger decks, and when fully loaded, can carry 493 passengers and their baggage. 
    Measuring 153.5 x 34.5 feet and a draft of approximately eight feet loaded, the vessel is powered by four Cummins QSK60-M EPA Tier 3 diesel engines, each delivering 2,200 Bhp at 1,800 rpm. Each engine propels a Hamilton HM721 water jet through a Twin Disc MG61500SC horizontally-offset gearbox. The ferry’s top speed is more than 34 knots (39 mph) with a fully-loaded deadweight of 64 metric tons.
     
    We arose early to depart at 5:12 am for the first High Speed Ferry to Nantucket. We arrived at the ferry at 5:20 am under some fog and high overcast skies and a temperature of 59º. Most of the other passengers were sleepy workers commuting to work with an early 6:10 am Monday departure time.

     
    On this ride, Amy and I paid extra to sit in the "Captain's Seats", the top level passenger deck with more room and larger forward facing seats, and the views were great. All of the pictures and videos that I took traveling to Nantucket were taken from inside the ship from these seats, and I was pretty happy with the way they turned out.  You can also get drinks and snacks on board during the ride.  The trip was about as smooth as it gets.  Other than the vibration from the engines there was no motion at all unless you happened to cross another ships wake. This water can get very rough and visibility can drop to nothing, so days like this are a treat. I spoke with a tour guide that travels back and forth on a regular basis and she told me about one trip where it was so foggy you couldn't see in front of you. She said they blew the horn continuously through the entire trip. They do stop the ferry if the seas get too rough, but I don't know how they determine that. 
    I have a few short videos of the ferry leaving the Hyannis Harbor and cruising across Nantucket Sound just to give you an idea of the views and the calm water. 
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
    As we approached the island the skies were dark from the rain clouds that had passed earlier in the morning. Here are a few pictures of those clouds as we approached Nantucket. 


     
    When we arrived on the island at 7:40 am, we were the life on the island! After the hustle and bustle of the ferry passengers settled, Nantucket was still asleep. It was cool, tranquil and quiet. It was so serene that the still beauty stops you in your tracks. The calm AFTER the storm feeling… PEACE that surpasses ALL understanding. It may be true that a picture is worth a thousand words and this one captured the moment perfectly.

     
    Our bus tour of the island wasn’t until 11:00 am so we had some time to explore a little of the town on our own. Of course, food was of interest. While scouting looking for something that was open, we walked around looking at all the cool shops and gorgeous old houses/buildings. Since it was so early, there really wasn't much open, so we headed back to this cute little place called "Provisions" that we saw after stepping off the ferry. We ate a wonderful breakfast sandwich  that was just what we needed. "The Original" consist of herbed egg frittata, cheddar, bacon and house-made tomato chipotle jam. They have all kinds of coffee as well as sweets, juices and other light food. Keep in mind, everything is more expensive on Nantucket, but with drinks we paid $19 for our breakfast.

     
    Remember... if you get to Nantucket too early... NOTHING is open, it's almost like a ghost town. This may have been one of the reasons it was so surreal. Take the 6:10 am ferry and see what I mean 🙂

     
    Once we were fed and we located the bus tour spot, we were ready for adventure. We pretty much scoured the town while Steve was able to capture some incredible images. The sun began to peep through just as the town seemed to wake up. PERFECT in every way! It actually warmed to 74 degrees later in the day. Below is a link to the album with all of the pictures. Notice that many of the buildings will have the date they were built on the front, and you'll see a few here but there are more in the link further down the page.
     
    New England Trip - Nantucket - June 3, 2019 - Google Photos
    PHOTOS.APP.GOO.GL 136 new items added to shared album  

    The 11:00 am tour guide was with Billy from Australia. LOL. He was AWESOME!!!!!!! I wish we had a recording! (EDIT: We found it!) Now I HAVE to return. Here are a few items I learned:

    There is a HUGE Preservation Society in charge of everything. Even 2% of real estate sales go to this establishment. Not sure of the political inclination, but if they are responsible for actually preserving this incredible island, then they are doing a mighty act. Only 12 colors can be used on exteriors and Billy spouted them off like the days of the week. The average home is $2.5 million (and I’ve always considered myself above average. HA! and Zillow sales confirm. LOOK!) and they just got squirrels. Can you believe that? Only sweet animals allowed here. I think rodents came over as stowaways. Gasoline is $4/gallon, there are NO traffic lights (Steve can put it on cruise and never stop), there has only been one murder in 150 years, one stucco house (before the conservation society), and CRANBERRY bogs galore. There are 11,000 residents year round and 60,000 during the summer. Oh, and the two hotels run $1000-$1500/night, so this sheds new light on the phrase “DON’T miss the BOAT!” You may end up sleeping on a bench!
    The history was fascinating! It embraces you and makes you a part of the island story. So much has stayed exactly the same since the island was placed on the National Historic Landmark District in 1966. It is considered the "finest surviving architectural and environmental example of a late 18th and early 19th century New England seaport town". I LOVE that.
    This is where naming your vessel began to identify the numerous shipwrecks. The island is referred to as the “Little Grey Lady of the Sea” and our ferry boat was the “Grey Lady IV.” There is a Whaling Museum with a remarkable scrimshaw collection and the quaint shops are curiously inviting. We saw the little airfield where “Wings”, the TV show, was filmed. Our stop at Sankaty Head Light and exclusive golf club was spectacular. The most amazing views and lighthouse stamped golf ball (found courtesy of Steve) were the bonus takeaways. 
    This island tour was an additional service available through Hy-Line cruises and was $25 per person. It is highly recommended by both of us in order to gain an understanding and appreciation of the total Nantucket experience . Billy’s narrated tour was truly a MUST in our schedule.

     
    The tour was about an hour and fifteen minutes, allowing us plenty of time to tour the town of Nantucket again on our own. Nantucket is the smallest of the two islands and is only about 48 square miles, so it would be real easy to navigate the island by bike. Both islands also have car rentals, so if you chose to get around and explore on your own, you have options. The video below is from the Sankaty Head Light over on the east side of the island. As you can see, there is a reason there are so many lighthouses in New England. Warm land and cold waters make for some pretty dense fog. 
     
     
     
    We purchased lots of goodies from several shops and also visited the Whaling Museum.  I had lots of pictures from this place and I have somehow lost them along with a few others. Hopefully I'll find them misplaced in another folder. I do have a video of an old restored clock that is on display there and I've included that video below. A little history of the clock...
    "In 1881, William Hadwen Starbuck presented the Town of Nantucket with an E. Howard No. 3 flatbed striking clock. Manufactured by the E. Howard Watch & Clock Co. of Boston, it was installed in the tower of the Unitarian Church and began operating on May 28, 1881. It powered the four clock faces of the south Tower and the church’s familiar bell, 52 chimes, three times a day, until 1957, when the dials were electrified.

    The Howard clock was donated by the Town to the NHA in April 1972 and was moved to the Peter Foulger Museum. It was restored in 2004–2005 to be installed in the glass-enclosed three-story stairwell of the Whaling Museum for its grand reopening in 2005, a location that displays the clock and its intricate mechanism in full view. Today, from the lobby to the museum’s rooftop belvedere, visitors can closely observe the clockworks chime the hours."
     
     
     
     

    It was afternoon and time to eat, so we went back to a location near the ferry dock and secured a lovely patio spot at The Tavern for a late lunch consisting of clam chowder (we were committed to having it every stop), roast beef sandwich, fries, and beer ($54). Yes... no seafood here, Nantucket is a little pricey and we were saving up for points north. 
    With newfound energy, we footed on, did a little more shopping, and enjoyed all that we could before leaving for Hyannis on the 4:15 pm ferry. We had planned on returning on the 5:40 pm, but by that time we were done so they let us swap.
     

    Finally, we have two short videos of the return trip. It was sunny but very windy and the back of the boat had lots of people on it until we got out in open waters... and then the wind and the spray chased everyone inside except for us, a couple of Hy-Line employees and this one girl. Every now and then she would get blasted by a COLD spray... and she never flinched. One person even came out and asked her if she was ok! 🙂 We talked with her after we pulled in and discovered that she had moved from Miami to just north of Boston and was here for the summer to work on Nantucket, and on this return trip she was headed back to the mainland. Amy just KNEW that she must have lost a bet. 🙂 Wouldn't it be great if you could somehow let these people know you have a picture of them? I wished I had gotten a video of her getting sprayed. 🙂
    So a great day with great weather, and it just so happens that this wonderful weather will be our traveling companion over  the following 9 days. We were both  blown away by the beauty and charm of the old seaside port and the staggering amount of documented history. It's amazing and not uncommon to see building's from the 1700's that are meticulously maintained and still in use today. The fact that the brick and cobblestone roads and sidewalks have withstood the wind and weather and 300 years of use is amazing. Overall, our island trip was surreal and exceeded our every expectation (as each day has so far). I came as a visitor and left as a faithful friend, and this visit would be tough to beat.  But what we didn't know was that the next few days would end up being even better. 🙂
     
     
     



  11. NorthGeorgiaWX

    May 14, 2024

    By NorthGeorgiaWX,


    Front Yard
    Well... it's almost done. More than 6 months later, the project is almost over other than one semi-major detail, and a few other small ones. We are waiting on the driveway to be resealed so that it's all black again, and we're swapping out a few plants, and filling a sink hole near the top of the wall, none of which is serious. 
    Just another few things to finish up, and the "Taj Mywall" (or "The Great Wall of Big Canoe") will be completed. 🙂 LOL! If you want to see the images from start to finish, you can skip all the words below and go straight to the pictures here. The before images will appear first.
    2023 - 11 - 2024 - 02 -Front Yard Renovation - Google Photos
    PHOTOS.APP.GOO.GL 258 new items · Album by Steve Brueck
    This project started November 24th, so it's been almost 6 months since they started to wipe out the front yard, so it's been a long time but it's been worth it. We don't have a lot of land in front of the house to start with, so we decided we needed to make the best uses of the space that we have.

    The wall tackled several issues we had with our front bank. I was lacking parking space and getting in and out of one of the garages was difficult, especially if our 3rd vehicle was parked like we normally park it.
    The bank was pretty steep and slowly washing away, and some of the plants that were originally planted there weren't doing well, I had a concern that the edge of the road falling back down our hill. Many years ago, the POA actually built a retaining wall two doors down from us for one of the neighbors, so it was probably a matter of time before it would happen here.

    We couldn't be more pleased. The only things left to do is reseal the entire driveway (Ben is coming back to do that) so that everything is the same black and fills all the cracks and crevice's. Joy will be replacing some of the plants that we transplanted, and replacing those with some new plants, and fixing all the mulch that got messed up when they did the irrigation work. We are also added a short split rail fence on one edge of our drive so people aren't terrified of running off the drive and falling down a hill. 🙂

    We had great contractors working for us, and this is who we used:
    Ben Hopkins - 770-893-8986
    Ben Hopkins and his crews did all the demolition of the existing bank, installed the lighting, and built the walls and steps. Can't say enough good things about Ben. When we initially started, Ben had a different vision from mine, but once we were clear about what I wanted, they went to work. The wall (and project) ended up being more than anyone originally thought, but we trudged on and it turned out great. This is the tallest stacked stone wall that Ben has built. I used a lighting controller from Home Depot so that I can control the lights on the walls from my phone. 

    Joy Dyer - 478-320-9036
    Joy did the landscape design and all the landscaping. We are still making some modifications. Some of the yews that we transplanted are going to be replaced, and more mulch will be going down. The irrigation was actually done after the mulch went down, so now we have to re-cover some of that. The landscaping was the easiest part. 🙂 Joy is a Big Canoe resident.

    Cody Allen - 678-763-3302
    Cody did the irrigation and the water feature. Awesome job! At first we wanted a pondless water feature where the water would flow into a gravel pit. I didn't like the way that looked, so we turned that into a pond. We also added some height to the waterfall so it would be seen easier from the house. We used a Hunter irrigation controller for the irrigation, and I can manage the irrigation system from my phone.

    Bruce Jankowski - 706-973-9192
    Bruce has been my go to person for electrical work for years, so I had him run he power for the pump for the water feature.

    Yveto Thomas - 678-794-2672
    He goes by Thomas, but he did a great job with the wrought iron railings. Very nice guy.
    If you have any questions, please feel free to ask!
    Here's a video I took a few days ago as the sun was setting. 
     
    Here are a few other pictures if you don't want to click on the link.

     

     

     

     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     

Various Links

These are links to various pages on my Daculaweather.com site

NWS Links

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