NorthGeorgiaWX

Flood Warning issued April 17 at 8:56PM EDT by NWS Jacksonville FLView the full article

MD 0462 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS Mesoscale Discussion 0462 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Areas affected...central and eastern Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 162016Z - 162145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated large hail is possible this afternoon/evening. DISCUSSION...A plume of rich low-level moisture has advected across eastern Texas, Louisiana and into southern Arkansas. Weak isentropic ascent has been sufficient for storm development on the leading edge of this moist plume. Effective shear of 50 to 55 knots and will be proficient for organized storms, including supercells. However, warm mid-level temperatures and weak ascent will be the primary limiting factor to a greater threat. Therefore, a few stronger storms may develop with a threat for large hail, but this threat is expected to remain too isolated to warrant a watch. ..Bentley/Guyer.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 33229391 33729381 34459361 35109322 35589276 36179209 36469071 36329008 35878979 34549040 33619121 33179180 32969233 32909373 33229391 Read more View the full article

MD 0464 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL Mesoscale Discussion 0464 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Areas affected...portions of northern/central IL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 162040Z - 162215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Severe potential may slowly increase over the next few hours into parts of northern and central Illinois. A watch may be needed at some point late this afternoon, but timing remains uncertain. DISCUSSION...A band of storms continues to lift northeast across eastern IA into western IL this afternoon. Much of the convection is somewhat disorganized in a messy storm mode. Downstream into northern/central IL, some modest increase in boundary-layer moisture still may occur as a warm front lifts north. While strong heating has occurred, some weak inhibition remains over parts of the area. Nevertheless, modest boundary-layer moisture beneath midlevel lapse rates around 7 C/km are supporting weak instability (MLCAPE 1000 J/kg or less). The initial band of convection moving toward the MCD area may largely remain unproductive. However, as large-scale ascent increasing toward evening, a secondary band of convection may move into the area and post more of a severe risk. Given the somewhat limited thermodynamic environment (despite favorable vertical shear), severe potential may only gradually increase toward evening. The area will be monitored for potential watch issuance, but timing is uncertain. ..Leitman/Guyer.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN... LAT...LON 42588989 42398864 41868769 41098752 40288757 39768819 39688902 40068964 41318962 42588989 Read more View the full article

WW 0119 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 119 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 119 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC005-013-021-025-027-049-051-061-083-117-119-121-129-133-135- 157-163-167-173-189-162240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CALHOUN CHRISTIAN CLAY CLINTON EFFINGHAM FAYETTE GREENE JERSEY MACOUPIN MADISON MARION MENARD MONROE MONTGOMERY RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR SANGAMON SHELBY WASHINGTON MOC055-071-093-099-113-123-179-183-186-187-189-219-221-510- 162240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD FRANKLIN IRON JEFFERSON LINCOLN MADISON REYNOLDS ST. CHARLES STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS ST. LOUIS WARREN WASHINGTON Read more View the full article

WW 119 SEVERE TSTM IL MO 162020Z - 170200Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 119 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 320 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Illinois Southeast Missouri * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 320 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms will continue to move east-northeastward across the region this afternoon, with damaging winds and hail as the primary risks. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles west northwest of Mattoon IL to 40 miles southwest of Farmington MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 116...WW 117...WW 118... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Guyer Read more View the full article

WW 0119 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 119 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 119 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC005-013-021-025-027-049-051-061-083-117-119-121-129-133-135- 157-163-167-173-189-162240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CALHOUN CHRISTIAN CLAY CLINTON EFFINGHAM FAYETTE GREENE JERSEY MACOUPIN MADISON MARION MENARD MONROE MONTGOMERY RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR SANGAMON SHELBY WASHINGTON MOC055-071-093-099-113-123-179-183-186-187-189-219-221-510- 162240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD FRANKLIN IRON JEFFERSON LINCOLN MADISON REYNOLDS ST. CHARLES STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS ST. LOUIS WARREN WASHINGTON Read more View the full article

WW 119 SEVERE TSTM IL MO 162020Z - 170200Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 119 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 320 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Illinois Southeast Missouri * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 320 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms will continue to move east-northeastward across the region this afternoon, with damaging winds and hail as the primary risks. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles west northwest of Mattoon IL to 40 miles southwest of Farmington MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 116...WW 117...WW 118... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Guyer Read more View the full article

WW 0118 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 118 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W DSM TO 40 NW DSM TO 20 WSW FOD TO 35 WSW SPW TO 10 WNW FSD. ..BENTLEY..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 118 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC021-041-059-063-081-091-109-119-141-143-147-151-167-187-189- 195-162140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUENA VISTA CLAY DICKINSON EMMET HANCOCK HUMBOLDT KOSSUTH LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PALO ALTO POCAHONTAS SIOUX WEBSTER WINNEBAGO WORTH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more View the full article

WW 118 TORNADO IA NE SD 161725Z - 170000Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 118 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western and Northern Iowa Northeast Nebraska Southeast South Dakota * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1225 PM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible SUMMARY...A tornado/hail risk will exist through the afternoon as far west as northeast Nebraska and southeast South Dakota near a surface low, with other severe storms expected to develop into additional parts of Iowa. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles north of Norfolk NE to 35 miles east of Fort Dodge IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 116...WW 117... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 22035. ...Guyer Read more View the full article

WW 0118 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 118 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W DSM TO 40 NW DSM TO 20 WSW FOD TO 35 WSW SPW TO 10 WNW FSD. ..BENTLEY..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 118 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC021-041-059-063-081-091-109-119-141-143-147-151-167-187-189- 195-162140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUENA VISTA CLAY DICKINSON EMMET HANCOCK HUMBOLDT KOSSUTH LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PALO ALTO POCAHONTAS SIOUX WEBSTER WINNEBAGO WORTH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more View the full article

WW 118 TORNADO IA NE SD 161725Z - 170000Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 118 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western and Northern Iowa Northeast Nebraska Southeast South Dakota * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1225 PM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible SUMMARY...A tornado/hail risk will exist through the afternoon as far west as northeast Nebraska and southeast South Dakota near a surface low, with other severe storms expected to develop into additional parts of Iowa. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles north of Norfolk NE to 35 miles east of Fort Dodge IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 116...WW 117... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 22035. ...Guyer Read more View the full article

WW 0117 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 117 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...LSX...ILX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 117 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-009-011-015-017-057-067-071-073-085-095-109-123-125-131- 137-143-149-155-161-169-171-175-187-195-162140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN BUREAU CARROLL CASS FULTON HANCOCK HENDERSON HENRY JO DAVIESS KNOX MCDONOUGH MARSHALL MASON MERCER MORGAN PEORIA PIKE PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND SCHUYLER SCOTT STARK WARREN WHITESIDE IAC011-019-031-037-043-045-055-057-061-065-067-087-095-097-101- 103-105-107-111-113-115-139-163-177-183-162140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON BUCHANAN CEDAR CHICKASAW CLAYTON CLINTON DELAWARE DES MOINES DUBUQUE Read more View the full article

WW 0117 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 117 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...LSX...ILX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 117 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-009-011-015-017-057-067-071-073-085-095-109-123-125-131- 137-143-149-155-161-169-171-175-187-195-162140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN BUREAU CARROLL CASS FULTON HANCOCK HENDERSON HENRY JO DAVIESS KNOX MCDONOUGH MARSHALL MASON MERCER MORGAN PEORIA PIKE PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND SCHUYLER SCOTT STARK WARREN WHITESIDE IAC011-019-031-037-043-045-055-057-061-065-067-087-095-097-101- 103-105-107-111-113-115-139-163-177-183-162140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON BUCHANAN CEDAR CHICKASAW CLAYTON CLINTON DELAWARE DES MOINES DUBUQUE Read more View the full article

WW 117 TORNADO IA IL MO WI 161705Z - 170100Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 117 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Iowa Western and Northwest Illinois Northeast Missouri Southwest Wisconsin * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1205 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Arcing bands and clusters of severe storms including supercells will steadily move northeastward across the region through the afternoon, with the potential for all hazards including tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north of Dubuque IA to 75 miles south southwest of Quincy IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 116... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23040. ...Guyer Read more View the full article

WW 117 TORNADO IA IL MO WI 161705Z - 170100Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 117 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Iowa Western and Northwest Illinois Northeast Missouri Southwest Wisconsin * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1205 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Arcing bands and clusters of severe storms including supercells will steadily move northeastward across the region through the afternoon, with the potential for all hazards including tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north of Dubuque IA to 75 miles south southwest of Quincy IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 116... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23040. ...Guyer Read more View the full article

WW 0116 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 116 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SZL TO 45 SW OTM TO 20 W DSM. ..LEITMAN..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 116 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC007-013-015-017-023-033-049-051-069-075-079-083-099-117-123- 125-127-135-153-157-169-171-179-181-197-162140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPANOOSE BLACK HAWK BOONE BREMER BUTLER CERRO GORDO DALLAS DAVIS FRANKLIN GRUNDY HAMILTON HARDIN JASPER LUCAS MAHASKA MARION MARSHALL MONROE POLK POWESHIEK STORY TAMA WAPELLO WARREN WRIGHT MOC001-041-053-089-121-175-197-162140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CHARITON COOPER HOWARD MACON RANDOLPH SCHUYLER Read more View the full article

WW 0116 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 116 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SZL TO 45 SW OTM TO 20 W DSM. ..LEITMAN..04/16/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 116 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC007-013-015-017-023-033-049-051-069-075-079-083-099-117-123- 125-127-135-153-157-169-171-179-181-197-162140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPANOOSE BLACK HAWK BOONE BREMER BUTLER CERRO GORDO DALLAS DAVIS FRANKLIN GRUNDY HAMILTON HARDIN JASPER LUCAS MAHASKA MARION MARSHALL MONROE POLK POWESHIEK STORY TAMA WAPELLO WARREN WRIGHT MOC001-041-053-089-121-175-197-162140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CHARITON COOPER HOWARD MACON RANDOLPH SCHUYLER Read more View the full article

WW 116 TORNADO IA MO 161520Z - 162300Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 116 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Iowa Western and Northern Missouri * Effective this Tuesday morning and evening from 1020 AM until 600 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Storms will likely continue to intensify and organize, including supercells, as they further develop and move northeastward across the region today, with steady destabilization into afternoon as heating occurs and cloud breaks occur. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles west northwest of Knoxville IA to 10 miles south southeast of Knob Noster MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23040. ...Guyer Read more View the full article

WW 116 TORNADO IA MO 161520Z - 162300Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 116 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Iowa Western and Northern Missouri * Effective this Tuesday morning and evening from 1020 AM until 600 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Storms will likely continue to intensify and organize, including supercells, as they further develop and move northeastward across the region today, with steady destabilization into afternoon as heating occurs and cloud breaks occur. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles west northwest of Knoxville IA to 10 miles south southeast of Knob Noster MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23040. ...Guyer Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today, especially across northern Missouri, Iowa, and northwestern Illinois. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are expected. More isolated activity could develop as far south as the Ozarks and Mid-South. ...Synopsis... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor modifications made to reflect convective trends across portions of NE, KS, and western MO. Recent analyses show that the best kinematic environment resides from central AR into MO and southern/southeast IA. However, thermodynamic limitations (largely due to warm temperatures in the 850-700 mb as sampled by the 18 UTC DVN and 19 UTC ILX soundings and modest mid-level lapse rates) and unfavorable storm interactions have modulated convective intensity/organization thus far. Further intensification remains possible through the afternoon/early evening amid peak diurnal heating (see MCD 460 for additional near-term details). Across far eastern NE into western IA, cold temperatures aloft (supporting surface-based lifted indices between -7 to -9 C) combined with plentiful ambient low-level vorticity along surface boundaries continues to support a tornado threat. See MCD 461 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/ ...Midwest/Middle Mississippi Valley... Regenerative scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to occur across western/northern Missouri into much of Iowa at late morning, originating with a warm sector that narrows with north-northwestward extent into southern Iowa and far east/northeast Nebraska in vicinity of the surface low. Even while warm-sector cloud breaks have been limited, steady early-spring heating and low-level moistening is occurring with surface dewpoints rising through the lower 60s F. This development coincides with an intense/cyclonically curved 90+ kt polar jet and a low-level jet that will remain diurnally strong (40+ kt). Modest cloud breaks aside, destabilization will be further aided by a pocket of steep mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft on the southeast side of the upper trough/low. Scenario supports a risk for supercells especially across northern Missouri into southern/eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. Steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in hail production, with a few golf ball or 2+ inch diameter stones possible with the more robust cores. Tornadoes will also be a concern, as the enhanced boundary-layer flow and enlarged/curved hodographs associated with the low-level jet will aid in updraft rotation. The main tornado potential is still expected to be focused along/near the warm front in southern/eastern Iowa where the stronger low-level shear is forecast. A strong (EF2+) tornado is possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds are otherwise expected regionally. Farther south toward the Ozarks and Mid-South, a potential for at least isolated severe thunderstorms remains apparent into this evening, with a moist/confluent regime near/ahead of the eastward-advancing front. Mid-level lapse rates will remain limited. However, steady low-level moistening will tend to counteract a tendency for nocturnal boundary cooling, netting a scenario with limited warm-sector inhibition tonight, supporting the possibility of supercells capable of all severe hazards including a tornado risk, even if severe storms remain relatively isolated overall. Read more View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST INDIANA INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AND MUCH OF OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from southern Lower Michigan into parts of the Ohio Valley. A more isolated severe threat may materialize across parts of Tennessee Valley into the Southwest as well as parts of the east-central Plains and Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis... The upper-level wave and attendant surface low currently over the central Plains/Midwest are forecast to weaken over the next 24-48 hours as they gradually lift to the northeast. A trailing surface cold front associated with the low is forecast to push east across the Great Lakes region through the day it becomes increasingly influenced by mean westerly flow. This boundary should be the focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development by late morning/early afternoon across IN/OH and lower MI. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated by peak heating across portions of the TN Valley as a residual outflow boundary migrates east. To the west across the Plains, a warm advection regime should become established by early evening as a surface low begins to deepen ahead of an approaching upper-level wave. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible within the warm advection regime across parts of the Ozarks into the east-central Plains. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... Broken cloud cover is anticipated Wednesday morning across the Midwest/Great Lakes as a mid-level dry slot overspreads the region in the wake of Tuesday night's convection. The north/northeast track of the decaying surface low should allow for low to mid 60s dewpoints to spread north into IN/OH and lower MI by late morning ahead of the approaching cold front. Thunderstorm development may occur by mid-morning across portions of IN, but the development and intensification of any convection will be dependent on the degree of subsidence within the dry slot. Diurnal heating of the low-level air mass should allow for 1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE by early afternoon with decreasing inhibition. Consequently, more robust convection is likely by early afternoon across lower MI into western OH. Deep-layer flow off the front should favor initially discrete cells within a broken line of storms with an attendant hail and tornado risk. Steepening low-level lapse rates, combined with 40-50 knot mid-level flow, should support an increasing damaging wind threat by late afternoon. Upscale growth into one or more clusters is probable by late afternoon into the evening hours across eastern OH and far western PA given strong forcing along the front and similar storm and boundary motions. Further south into the OH River Valley, thunderstorm development is less certain given increasing displacement from the stronger forcing for ascent. However, a conditionally favorable environment for organized convection is forecast, which should support a more isolated severe threat. ...Tennessee Valley region... A residual outflow boundary from Tuesday night's convection is expected to push east through the morning hours, reaching the eastern TN Valley into northern AL/MS by peak heating. Thunderstorm development and/or re-intensification is possible - especially across AL/MS/GA where latest CAMs show reasonable agreement in redevelopment as SBCAPE increases to around 1500 J/kg. While low-level flow is forecast to be weak, 30-40 knot westerlies aloft, combined with steepening low-level lapse rates by late afternoon, should support a few stronger cells/clusters with an attendant hail/wind risk. ...Southwest Missouri to Northeast Kansas... An upper disturbance currently approaching northern MT is forecast to migrate southeast over the next 48 hours. Surface pressure falls over the Plains in response to the approach of this feature will strengthen southerly low/mid-level winds on the western periphery of a warm/moist air mass over the southern Plains/lower MS Valley - especially by early evening as the nocturnal jet strengthens. Concurrently, a cold air mass will begin migrating south along the High Plains. Thunderstorms may develop within the warm advection regime on the northern fringe of the returning moisture during the 00-06 UTC period across parts of the Ozark Plateau. A second round is probable later overnight (during the 08-12 UTC period) as the cold front impinges on the returning moisture across northeast KS. For both regimes, sufficient deep-layer flow should be in place to support organized cells with a severe hail risk. ..Moore.. 04/16/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today, especially across northern Missouri, Iowa, and northwestern Illinois. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are expected. More isolated activity could develop as far south as the Ozarks and Mid-South. ...Midwest/Middle Mississippi Valley... Regenerative scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to occur across western/northern Missouri into much of Iowa at late morning, originating with a warm sector that narrows with north-northwestward extent into southern Iowa and far east/northeast Nebraska in vicinity of the surface low. Even while warm-sector cloud breaks have been limited, steady early-spring heating and low-level moistening is occurring with surface dewpoints rising through the lower 60s F. This development coincides with an intense/cyclonically curved 90+ kt polar jet and a low-level jet that will remain diurnally strong (40+ kt). Modest cloud breaks aside, destabilization will be further aided by a pocket of steep mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft on the southeast side of the upper trough/low. Scenario supports a risk for supercells especially across northern Missouri into southern/eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. Steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in hail production, with a few golf ball or 2+ inch diameter stones possible with the more robust cores. Tornadoes will also be a concern, as the enhanced boundary-layer flow and enlarged/curved hodographs associated with the low-level jet will aid in updraft rotation. The main tornado potential is still expected to be focused along/near the warm front in southern/eastern Iowa where the stronger low-level shear is forecast. A strong (EF2+) tornado is possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds are otherwise expected regionally. Farther south toward the Ozarks and Mid-South, a potential for at least isolated severe thunderstorms remains apparent into this evening, with a moist/confluent regime near/ahead of the eastward-advancing front. Mid-level lapse rates will remain limited. However, steady low-level moistening will tend to counteract a tendency for nocturnal boundary cooling, netting a scenario with limited warm-sector inhibition tonight, supporting the possibility of supercells capable of all severe hazards including a tornado risk, even if severe storms remain relatively isolated overall. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 04/16/2024 Read more View the full article

Flood Warning issued April 16 at 10:48AM EDT until April 19 at 5:36PM EDT by NWS Tallahassee FLView the full article

Flood Warning issued April 16 at 10:47AM EDT until April 17 at 3:00PM EDT by NWS Tallahassee FLView the full article

Flood Warning issued April 16 at 10:20AM EDT by NWS Jacksonville FLView the full article