NorthGeorgiaWX

Hydrologic Outlook issued April 8 at 3:55PM EDT by NWS Tallahassee FLView the full article

Flood Warning issued April 8 at 8:51AM EDT by NWS Jacksonville FLView the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms should develop from mid afternoon through tonight across a large portion of the southern Plains into the Mississippi Delta region. Large to giant hail is the main threat, especially over northwest Texas, though a few tornadoes and severe gusts are also possible in an area extending east into northern Louisiana. ...Synopsis... Morning water-vapor imagery shows a positively-tilted mid-level trough over the Desert Southwest/northwest Mexico. This mid-level trough will amplify as it moves across the Southwest and northern Mexico. An associated belt of strong southwesterly flow will extend from the base of the trough across the southern Great Plains and into the lower MS Valley. A cyclone will develop in West Texas and deepen through the period as southerly low-level flow advects rich moisture into TX/LA [near the record high lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio observed this early in the year at the Brownsville raob site (17.2 g/kg)]. A warm front will advance northward to the Red River by early evening. A cold front analyzed this morning moving south through the TX Panhandle/western OK will become stationary later today. ...Northwest Texas into north-central Texas... Strong heating on the northwest periphery of rich low-level moisture will weaken the cap across northwest TX by mid afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate a moderately unstable airmass (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) will continue to destabilize into the evening as south-southeasterly flow strengthens and advects 50s (west) to mid 60s (near I-35) surface dewpoints into the region by early evening. Veering and strengthening flow with height (100+ kt at 250 mb) will favor supercells as the initial convective mode. Large to giant hail (3-4 inches in diameter) is possible in addition to some tornado risk towards evening. Some consolidation into a cluster/MCS may occur during the evening across north-central TX with some risk for all 3 hazards. ...East Texas into the ArkLaTex... Moderate to strong instability is expected to develop across east Texas and into western Louisiana this afternoon as upper 60s to near 70s dewpoints advect northward. Despite a solar eclipse across this region, its impact on the overall severe weather threat will likely remain minimal. Only moderate warming will be sufficient to erode inhibition across the region with a gradual strengthening of southerly 850-mb flow and isentropic ascent as the primary focus for storm development by mid to late afternoon. Strong instability and shear is expected and will support supercells capable of large to very large hail. However, there are some concerns about storm interference and updraft longevity. Initially, a warm nose around 700mb is evident on NAM/RAP forecast soundings which may limit more robust updraft development. This warm nose is forecast to erode by 23/00Z. However, by that time, widespread shower/thunderstorm development may be underway which could be a limiting factor to updraft longevity and a greater tornado/large hail threat. Some guidance suggests a MCS may develop out of the northwest/north-central Texas convection and move through northeast Texas during the overnight hours. This solution will greatly depend on the evolution of earlier convection and position of the convectively enhanced warm front by late evening. ...Texas Hill Country overnight... Increasing forcing for ascent via stronger mid-level height falls will overspread much of western/central Texas tonight. Continued moistening with mid-upper 60s deg F dewpoints beneath steep 700-500 lapse rates (8 deg C/km) will result in 2500 to 3000 J/kg MUCAPE. Elongated hodographs with 60-kt effective shear will promote supercells and mainly a risk for large to very large hail. Southerly 850-mb flow will increase overnight via a LLJ and act to augment initially limited hodographs. If a cluster organizes overnight (06-12z), a risk for severe gusts and perhaps a tornado could develop. Have extended Slight Risk equivalent wind/tornado probabilities southward for this potential scenario. ...West Texas early Tuesday... The dryline is expected to retreat into West Texas overnight with strong instability building back to near Midland early Tuesday morning. As strong upper forcing overspreads this region, at least isolated to scattered storms will probably develop on the western periphery of a strongly unstable/sheared environment. Have adjusted the some of the severe probabilities farther west where the progged western edge of moisture/buoyancy will be located. ..Smith/Mosier.. 04/08/2024 Read more View the full article

Flood Warning issued April 8 at 6:44AM EDT until April 10 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston SCView the full article

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Apr 7 23:46:01 UTC 2024.View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN TEXAS INTO EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms should develop from early afternoon Monday through Tuesday morning across a large portion of the southern Plains into the Mississippi Delta region. Large to very large hail is the main threat, especially over northwest Texas, though isolated tornadoes and severe wind gusts will also be possible. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen over the Desert Southwest, preceded by multiple embedded perturbations which are poised to traverse the southern Plains tomorrow/Monday. A broad belt of low-level moisture return will become established over the southern Plains during this period as colder mid-level temperatures overspread the south-central U.S., supporting at least moderate instability by afternoon. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms should occur across the southern Plains. The southerly low-level jet beneath strong mid-level westerlies will promote strong vertical wind shear over the warm sector, that in tandem with moderate instability will support some of the thunderstorms becoming strong to severe tomorrow afternoon and evening, with all severe hazards possible. ...Southern Plains... The first round of thunderstorms should initiate over portions of central TX by afternoon along the warm front. At least mid 60s F dewpoints, overspread by 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will boost MLCAPE to 1500-2500 J/kg. 30+ kts of south-southeasterly flow beneath 50+ kts of southwesterly 500 mb winds will support modestly curved low-level hodographs with mid/upper-level elongation, quantified by around 50 kts of effective bulk shear and at least 200 m2/s2 effective SRH. Multicells and supercells will form along the warm front with large hail and a few tornadoes the main threat. A few stones may exceed 2 inches in diameter. Meanwhile, low-level moisture will also advect northwestward into northwestern TX and extreme southwestern OK. Surface dewpoints should reach into the 50s F, and will be overspread by 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates, supporting over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon peak heating. Strong vertical wind shear will also be in place, with elongated hodographs contributing to over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. Multicells and supercells will be the dominant modes of convection. The main threat will be large hail (multiple instances of 2+ inch diameter hail will be possible). Damaging gusts will also be possible and a tornado cannot be ruled out given modest low-level hodograph curvature, though the tornado threat should be tempered by limited low-level moisture. Later in the evening, storms should merge into clusters and small bowing segments, where a few damaging gusts will eventually become the main concern. ...Mississippi Delta Region... As the warm front moves north through the day, low-level warm-air and moisture advection will boost MUCAPE to over 1000 J/kg over portions of central LA into western MS. Elevated convection should develop during the afternoon in the warm-air advection regime, where 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates and elongated hodographs will encourage multicell/supercell development. Large hail will be the main threat with the more dominant elevated supercells. ..Squitieri.. 04/07/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong surface low across central Nebraska will weaken as it moves east today. Despite the weakening, a strong pressure gradient is expected across much of the Plains and into the southern High Plains. In addition, a deeply mixed atmosphere is expected beneath strong mid-level flow. Therefore, 20 to 25 mph winds are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. An extended period of dry and windy conditions in the southern High Plains has dried fuels substantially in this region. As a result, large fires will be possible today. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A PORTION OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CENTERED FROM THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL TO WESTERN PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong/isolated severe thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon to mid-evening in the lower/mid Mississippi Valley. ...Mid/lower Mississippi Valley area... While dewpoints remain in the 30s and 40s across the SLGT risk area late this morning, low-level moisture advection is ongoing ahead of the advancing cold front, with low to mid 60s dewpoints now observed across central and southern portions of Arkansas. As the front advances eastward, and the more favorable low-level theta-e airmass continues advecting northward, filtered heating will support modest destabilization, with afternoon mixed-layer CAPE values rising into the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. Stronger ascent will remain just north of the SLGT risk area, as a lobe of vorticity rotating through cyclonic southwesterly flow aloft on the southeastern side of closed upper low over Nebraska crosses Illinois/Indiana this afternoon. Still, scattered convective development is expected to begin by mid to late afternoon across the Mid Mississippi Valley, and southward into the Delta region, in focused low-level ascent near the cold front. While modest CAPE will likely limit severe potential, the deep-layer wind field (veering and increasing favorably with height across the pre-frontal warm sector) will likely augment a few of the stronger updrafts, suggesting that a few storms will become capable of producing hail and/or damaging winds. A tornado or two will also be possible, with hodographs indicating favorable helicity with any right-moving supercell. Severe potential should peak through late afternoon, and then gradually diminish this evening as the boundary layer cools, and the cold front weakens with time. ...Parts of central/southeastern Iowa and vicinity... As the weakening/vertically stacked low shifts northeastward out of Nebraska and across northwestern Iowa this afternoon, continued daytime heating of a marginally moist (40s dewpoints) boundary layer, residing beneath rather steep mid-level lapse rates will continue to facilitate weak destabilization. Thunderstorms have developed late this morning across portions of northern and central Illinois, and across north-central Iowa and into adjacent southern Minnesota. By mid afternoon, new convective development is expected along the occluded front currently moving northeastward across the Nebraska/Iowa border/Mid-Missouri Valley at this time, as it shifts into central and southeastern Iowa. While the evolving, low-topped storms should remain largely sub-severe, a strong to severe wind gust or two, and even a brief tornado, will be possible, through late afternoon/early evening. ..Goss/Gleason.. 04/07/2024 Read more View the full article

Flood Warning issued April 7 at 9:50AM EDT by NWS Jacksonville FLView the full article

No watches are valid as of Sun Apr 7 02:02:02 UTC 2024.View the full article

No watches are valid as of Sun Apr 7 02:02:02 UTC 2024.View the full article

WW 0089 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 89 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW PNC TO 25 ENE HUT TO 15 S CNK TO 35 N CNK TO 15 NNW GRI. ..LYONS..04/06/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 89 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC015-017-019-027-029-035-041-049-061-073-079-111-115-117-127- 143-149-157-161-169-173-191-197-201-070040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA CLAY CLOUD COWLEY DICKINSON ELK GEARY GREENWOOD HARVEY LYON MARION MARSHALL MORRIS OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC RILEY SALINE SEDGWICK SUMNER WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON NEC023-067-095-109-151-159-070040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER GAGE JEFFERSON LANCASTER SALINE SEWARD Read more View the full article

WW 88 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 061915Z - 070100Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 88 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 215 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Kansas Western and Central Nebraska * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 215 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...An arcing band of thunderstorms is expected to initially intensify across southwest/west-central Nebraska, and into central Nebraska and north-central Kansas by late afternoon. Some severe hail is possible, and perhaps a brief tornado risk, but severe-caliber wind gusts/wind damage should be the primary impact. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles north northwest of Imperial NE to 40 miles southeast of Hastings NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 20040. ...Guyer Read more View the full article

WW 0089 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 89 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW PNC TO 25 ENE HUT TO 15 S CNK TO 35 N CNK TO 15 NNW GRI. ..LYONS..04/06/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 89 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC015-017-019-027-029-035-041-049-061-073-079-111-115-117-127- 143-149-157-161-169-173-191-197-201-070040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA CLAY CLOUD COWLEY DICKINSON ELK GEARY GREENWOOD HARVEY LYON MARION MARSHALL MORRIS OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC RILEY SALINE SEDGWICK SUMNER WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON NEC023-067-095-109-151-159-070040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER GAGE JEFFERSON LANCASTER SALINE SEWARD Read more View the full article

WW 88 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 061915Z - 070100Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 88 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 215 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Kansas Western and Central Nebraska * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 215 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...An arcing band of thunderstorms is expected to initially intensify across southwest/west-central Nebraska, and into central Nebraska and north-central Kansas by late afternoon. Some severe hail is possible, and perhaps a brief tornado risk, but severe-caliber wind gusts/wind damage should be the primary impact. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles north northwest of Imperial NE to 40 miles southeast of Hastings NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 20040. ...Guyer Read more View the full article

WW 89 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 062005Z - 070200Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 89 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 305 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Kansas Southeast Nebraska * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 305 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to further develop and intensify across north-central/east-central Kansas through mid-afternoon, and move into other parts of eastern/southeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska by late afternoon and early evening. Severe-caliber wind gusts should be the most common risk, but some hail is possible and a brief tornado could also occur, even with modest moisture. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles east northeast of Grand Island NE to 55 miles southeast of Wichita KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 88... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 22040. ...Guyer Read more View the full article

WW 89 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 062005Z - 070200Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 89 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 305 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Kansas Southeast Nebraska * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 305 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to further develop and intensify across north-central/east-central Kansas through mid-afternoon, and move into other parts of eastern/southeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska by late afternoon and early evening. Severe-caliber wind gusts should be the most common risk, but some hail is possible and a brief tornado could also occur, even with modest moisture. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles east northeast of Grand Island NE to 55 miles southeast of Wichita KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 88... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 22040. ...Guyer Read more View the full article

Frost Advisory issued April 6 at 7:38PM EDT until April 7 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Peachtree City GAView the full article

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Apr 6 23:30:06 UTC 2024.View the full article

WW 0088 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 88 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW CNK TO 40 SE HSI TO 10 SSE GRI TO 15 NW BUB. ..LYONS..04/06/24 ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 88 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC035-059-075-077-079-081-093-121-125-143-163-169-175-185- 070040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY FILLMORE GRANT GREELEY HALL HAMILTON HOWARD MERRICK NANCE POLK SHERMAN THAYER VALLEY YORK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more View the full article

WW 0088 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 88 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW CNK TO 40 SE HSI TO 10 SSE GRI TO 15 NW BUB. ..LYONS..04/06/24 ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 88 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC035-059-075-077-079-081-093-121-125-143-163-169-175-185- 070040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY FILLMORE GRANT GREELEY HALL HAMILTON HOWARD MERRICK NANCE POLK SHERMAN THAYER VALLEY YORK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms remain possible across parts of the central into southern Plains this afternoon and early evening. Scattered severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are the primary risks with the stronger storms, but a couple of tornadoes may also occur. ...20Z Update... A band of low-topped convection currently arcs from the NE Panhandle southeastward towards south-central NE and north-central KS. This activity is occurring along/near a warm front, but with limited low-level moisture. Strong low/mid-level flow associated with a deep cyclone over the central High Plains should support continued convective organization, with the primary threat remaining severe wind gusts up to 75 mph. See Mesoscale Discussion 377 for more details on the near-term severe threat across this area. Additional thunderstorm development appears likely this afternoon southward along an eastward-mixing dryline from parts of north-central to south-central KS, and eventually central OK. Some severe wind/hail risk will exist with any robust convection that can be sustained, although shallow low-level moisture continues to be a potentially limiting factor. Still, the better large-scale ascent/forcing, and greater thunderstorm coverage, should remain focused across KS where the Slight Risk is delineated. Finally, a small westward expansion has been made to the Marginal Risk across central OK. Latest visible satellite and radar trends show attempts at convection occurring along the dryline across north-central OK. Isolated thunderstorms should eventually develop while posing a risk for marginally severe hail and strong to severe wind gusts. See Mesoscale Discussion 378 for additional information on the severe potential across OK this afternoon. ..Gleason.. 04/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024/ ...Central/Southern Plains... An increasingly negative-tilt mid/upper-level trough will overspread the High Plains, with the upper jet exit region influencing the central Plains as surface cyclogenesis occurs across northeast Colorado/northwest Kansas into Nebraska through this evening. To the south of the surface cyclone, a Pacific cold front will gradually overtake a preceding dryline across the south-central Plains into this evening. Modest early season low-level moisture (evident in regional 12z soundings such as Norman/OUN, Fort Worth/FWD, Dodge City/DDC, and North Platte/LBF) is expected to somewhat limit the overall magnitude of today's severe risk, with a spatially narrow corridor of warm-sector dewpoints generally limited to the 40s F across Nebraska, some low/mid 50s F across Kansas, upper 50s F across Oklahoma, and low 60s F relegated to north/central Texas, as strong northward moist advection somewhat compensates for ample diurnal mixing. Even with low-level moisture/buoyancy limitations, very strong large-scale ascent attendant to the ejecting upper-level trough will aid in initial storm development early this afternoon near the surface low/triple point vicinity across far northeast Colorado, far northwest Kansas into western/central Nebraska, as well as other parts of northern/central Kansas by mid/late afternoon. A few low-topped supercells may occur before a transition to more linear modes this evening. Storms that can acquire supercell characteristics would yield the greatest threat for isolated large hail (1.0-1.5 inch diameter). While the tornado threat may tend to be limited by sparse low-level moisture, sufficient low-level shear/SRH could support at least a brief tornado threat with any stronger sustained supercell and/or within a transitioning linear mode, especially in closer proximity to the surface low over west-central/southern Nebraska and far northern Kansas. It appears the predominant risk will be severe gusts in the 60-80 mph range owing to steep 0-2 km lapse rates, very strong boundary-layer flow, and a more linear mode over time. While the primary severe risk is expected across parts of Nebraska and northern Kansas, isolated severe potential will also exist in vicinity of the dryline/Pacific front as it extends southward from southern Kansas into central Oklahoma around peak heating. While boundary layer moisture will be modest, isolated/widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected toward/after sunset as far south as I-40 in Oklahoma, and possibly as far south as the Red River vicinity. That said, some forecast soundings (especially 12z NAM but also HRRR) reflect some lingering mid-level inhibition/subsidence that does not fully resolve early this evening, especially with southward extent, which likely has implications for the isolated nature of the development as well as a less-than-typical early April potential for large hail. A few storms could even develop late tonight in vicinity of the Pacific front across central Texas toward the Hill Country. Read more View the full article

Frost Advisory issued April 6 at 2:20PM EDT until April 7 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Greenville-Spartanburg SCView the full article

Flood Warning issued April 6 at 8:54AM EDT by NWS Jacksonville FLView the full article

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z An active pattern will continue to support multiple periods of increased fire weather potential across the southern High Plains through the extended period. The best potential for Critical fire weather conditions will be on D3 - Sunday across the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... A belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow will persist across the southern High Plains on D3 - Sunday, with continued downslope drying amid a tight surface pressure gradient. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of far western and southwestern Texas into eastern New Mexico. The best overlap of receptive fuels with Critical meteorological conditions is expected from east-central New Mexico into the southern Texas Panhandle. 70 percent probabilities were maintained with this outlook with a broader 40 percent delineation where winds are expected to be lighter but relative humidity may drop as low as 10 percent. Elevated to critical conditions could redevelop across the southern High Plains on Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday -- ahead of another low-latitude trough over the West. 40-percent Critical probabilities are in place for this, though confidence in the development of any more than locally critical conditions is too low for higher probabilities at this time. ..Thornton.. 04/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article