NorthGeorgiaWX

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z An active pattern will continue to support multiple periods of increased fire weather potential across the southern High Plains through the extended period. The best potential for Critical fire weather conditions will be on D3 - Sunday across the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... A belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow will persist across the southern High Plains on D3 - Sunday, with continued downslope drying amid a tight surface pressure gradient. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of far western and southwestern Texas into eastern New Mexico. The best overlap of receptive fuels with Critical meteorological conditions is expected from east-central New Mexico into the southern Texas Panhandle. 70 percent probabilities were maintained with this outlook with a broader 40 percent delineation where winds are expected to be lighter but relative humidity may drop as low as 10 percent. Elevated to critical conditions could redevelop across the southern High Plains on Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday -- ahead of another low-latitude trough over the West. 40-percent Critical probabilities are in place for this, though confidence in the development of any more than locally critical conditions is too low for higher probabilities at this time. ..Thornton.. 04/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Though no Extremely Critical areas were added with this outlook, hi-res guidance from the HREF continues to show around 10-30% probability of Extremely Critical conditions across the northern Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma Panhandle into far southeastern Colorado. Deterministic models continue to show significant spread in wind speeds and minimum relative humidity but it seems likely that localized Extremely Critical conditions will be possible, mainly across the northern Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma Panhandle. Should confidence increase in more widespread conditions, an Extremely Critical may be needed with the upcoming transition to D1. ..Thornton.. 04/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... The second of a two-day fire weather event is anticipated on Saturday across southern NM/far west TX to southeast CO and southwest KS. Robust lee cyclogenesis is anticipated across the central High Plains by 18 UTC Saturday as a progressive upper-level wave (currently moving onto the CA coast) overspreads the region. The surface low is forecast to shift east into the Plains through the afternoon with a trailing surface trough/Pacific front pushing east across the southern High Plains by late morning. As this occurs, west/northwesterly post-frontal winds will advect a dry air mass off the central/southern Rockies into the High Plains. Downslope warming/drying of this air mass will promote widespread RH reductions into the 10-20% range across NM, western TX, and portions of OK/CO/KS. Latest high-res ensemble guidance shows reasonably high confidence in sub-15% RH within the critical risk area, and the typically drier/windier solutions hint that single-digit RH minimums are possible. Winds are expected to increase to 20-25 mph (gusting to 40-50 mph) by early afternoon amid a strengthening surface pressure gradient and deepening boundary-layer mixing. Sustained winds between 30-35 mph winds possible under the mid-level jet maximum, which should be located broadly across the northern TX and OK Panhandles. This region will see the highest potential for extremely critical fire weather conditions. Consideration was given to introducing an Extremely Critical risk area, but somewhat low ensemble consensus for sustained 30+ mph winds (only 10-30% probability) precluded higher risk headlines. These low probabilities may be associated with spread regarding the placement and magnitude of the surface low (up to a 4 mb difference between some solutions). These details should become better resolved heading into the Day-1 time frame. Regardless, fuels across the region should be very receptive after warm, dry, and windy conditions on Friday, which should support the high-end Critical fire weather risk on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Discussion... No changes appear necessary to the ongoing outlook at this time. ..Goss.. 04/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024/ ...Northern Rockies... Associated with the exit region of the polar jet related to the Western U.S. upper trough, forcing for ascent and modest moisture/buoyancy will lead to at least widely scattered thunderstorms by mid/late afternoon. These storms should generally focus across eastern Idaho and far western Montana this afternoon, and then additional parts of western/southern Montana and Wyoming into this evening. Steep lapse rates and sufficient buoyancy could allow for some stronger storms capable of gusty winds/hail, but organized/sustained severe thunderstorms are not currently expected. ...Coastal Southern California... Isolated low-topped thunderstorms will remain a possibility within the post-frontal environment beneath the mid/upper-level trough, where mid-level temperatures (500 mb) are generally between -25C to -30C. While a couple of east/southeastward-moving stronger storms could materialize through the afternoon near far southern California coastal areas, severe thunderstorms are unlikely given the limited boundary layer moisture and buoyancy (generally a couple hundred J/kg MUCAPE at most). Read more View the full article

Frost Advisory issued April 5 at 2:52PM EDT until April 6 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Peachtree City GAView the full article

Freeze Warning issued April 5 at 2:52PM EDT until April 6 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Peachtree City GAView the full article

Freeze Warning issued April 5 at 2:41PM EDT until April 6 at 10:00AM EDT by NWS Greenville-Spartanburg SCView the full article

Frost Advisory issued April 5 at 2:41PM EDT until April 6 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Greenville-Spartanburg SCView the full article

Flood Warning issued April 5 at 9:15AM EDT by NWS Jacksonville FLView the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0710 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery early this morning shows a mid to upper-level low over northern CA and an associated large-scale trough over the West Coast. A mid-level ridge is downstream over the Great Plains to the west of a large-scale trough/mid-level low near the East Coast. The western U.S. trough/low will gradually pivot east through Saturday morning across the Desert Southwest and Great Basin. Isolated thunderstorms are possible across CA/NV/AZ in conjunction with increasing large-scale ascent and sporadic pockets of weak buoyancy. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible across the central and northern Rockies and adjacent plains. Strong gusts cannot be ruled out with a few thunderstorms, but limited buoyancy will likely preclude the development of severe thunderstorms through tonight. ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/05/2024 Read more View the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... The medium-range models continue to forecast the development of an upper-level low across the Desert Southwest on Monday. The low is forecast to move eastward across the southwestern states on Tuesday and into the southern Plains on Wednesday. During this period, mid-level flow is forecast to be southwesterly across the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. As the system approaches, low-level moisture will return northward into the southern Plains, and moderate instability/deep-layer shear will likely be in place from central, east and north Texas eastward into the Louisiana. This will be the favored area for severe thunderstorm development from Monday afternoon to Tuesday night. On Wednesday, the upper-level low, and an associated cold front, is forecast to move through the southern Plains. Ahead of the front, low-level moisture is expected to be maximized from east Texas eastward to the central Gulf Coast. Some models, including the ECMWF and GFS, show potential for the development of a large MCS across the lower Mississippi Valley. These solutions suggest that instability and deep-layer shear will support a severe threat Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... On Thursday and Friday, the upper-level system is forecast to move eastward from the Ark-La-Tex to the southern Appalachians. Ahead of the system, a moist airmass is expected to be in place from the Gulf Coast states and Tennessee Valley eastward to the southern Atlantic Seaboard. As a cold front moves eastward across the Southeast, thunderstorm development may take place along and ahead of the front during the afternoon and evening on Thursday and Friday. Instability and deep-layer shear is forecast to be strong enough to support a severe threat. However, there is considerable uncertainty at this range in the Day to 4 to 8 period, concerning the timing of the upper-level trough and positioning of the cold front. For this reason, predictability remains too low to add a severe threat at this time. Read more View the full article

Frost Advisory issued April 5 at 3:57AM EDT until April 6 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Greenville-Spartanburg SCView the full article

Special Weather Statement issued April 5 at 3:31AM EDT by NWS Greenville-Spartanburg SCView the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... The second of a two-day fire weather event is anticipated on Saturday across southern NM/far west TX to southeast CO and southwest KS. Robust lee cyclogenesis is anticipated across the central High Plains by 18 UTC Saturday as a progressive upper-level wave (currently moving onto the CA coast) overspreads the region. The surface low is forecast to shift east into the Plains through the afternoon with a trailing surface trough/Pacific front pushing east across the southern High Plains by late morning. As this occurs, west/northwesterly post-frontal winds will advect a dry air mass off the central/southern Rockies into the High Plains. Downslope warming/drying of this air mass will promote widespread RH reductions into the 10-20% range across NM, western TX, and portions of OK/CO/KS. Latest high-res ensemble guidance shows reasonably high confidence in sub-15% RH within the critical risk area, and the typically drier/windier solutions hint that single-digit RH minimums are possible. Winds are expected to increase to 20-25 mph (gusting to 40-50 mph) by early afternoon amid a strengthening surface pressure gradient and deepening boundary-layer mixing. Sustained winds between 30-35 mph winds possible under the mid-level jet maximum, which should be located broadly across the northern TX and OK Panhandles. This region will see the highest potential for extremely critical fire weather conditions. Consideration was given to introducing an Extremely Critical risk area, but somewhat low ensemble consensus for sustained 30+ mph winds (only 10-30% probability) precluded higher risk headlines. These low probabilities may be associated with spread regarding the placement and magnitude of the surface low (up to a 4 mb difference between some solutions). These details should become better resolved heading into the Day-1 time frame. Regardless, fuels across the region should be very receptive after warm, dry, and windy conditions on Friday, which should support the high-end Critical fire weather risk on Saturday. ..Moore.. 04/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

Special Weather Statement issued April 5 at 2:12AM EDT by NWS Peachtree City GAView the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0705 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN IDAHO AND INTO WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... A few locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of western and northern Idaho into western Montana, mainly this afternoon and evening. Isolated hail and gusty winds are the expected hazards. ...Parts of ID into western MT... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level low and associated trough along the West Coast. This mid- to upper-level feature will move southeastward into northern CA later today. Increasing large-scale ascent to the northeast of this low will support scattered thunderstorm development from northern NV into western ID, with more isolated storms possible near a surface front extending eastward across west-central MT. Despite very modest low-level moisture across the region, steep lapse rates owing primarily to cold mid-level temperatures, will yield weak buoyancy by mid afternoon (below 500 J/kg MLCAPE). Long hodographs in combination with the weak instability may result in a couple of transient supercell structures. A localized threat of marginally severe hail (generally in the 0.75-1.25 inch range) and gusty winds of 50-60 mph could accompany the stronger storms. Elsewhere, a mid-level ridge building over the Great Plains and large-scale mid-level trough/low over the East will influence conditions in those regions. ..Smith.. 04/04/2024 Read more View the full article

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Apr 4 11:45:02 UTC 2024.View the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4... An upper-level low is forecast to move into the northern Plains on Sunday, as an upper-level trough moves through the Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance eastward to the Ark-La-Tex, with a somewhat narrow moisture corridor located in the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible along this corridor during the afternoon and evening. The severe threat may remain relatively isolated due to issues concerning weak instability and limited large-scale ascent. ...Monday/Day 5 and Tuesday/Day 6... On Monday, an upper-level low is forecast to move into the Desert Southwest, as mid-level flow becomes established across the south-central U.S. A moist airmass is forecast to be in place across the eastern two-thirds of Texas extending eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. The models continue to suggest that a large cluster of thunderstorms will develop from northeast Texas into Louisiana and southern Arkansas Monday evening. Instability and deep-layer shear should be sufficient for a severe threat. This moist airmass is forecast to remain in place over the south-central U.S. on Tuesday, as an upper-level low moves through the Desert Southwest. The moist sector is forecast to remain over the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. The most likely location for convective development Tuesday afternoon would be in parts of north and east Texas, where an MCS may develop. This large cluster could move eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley Tuesday night. A moist warm sector combined with strong deep-layer shear would support a severe threat, with the stronger cells embedded in the MCS. ...Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8... On Wednesday and Thursday, uncertainty increases concerning potential outcomes. The medium-range models have an upper-level system over the south-central U.S., and show potential for a large MCS over the western or northern Gulf of Mexico. This scenario would likely result in a over-turned airmass in the Gulf Coast states, which would limit severe potential. However, at this range, considering the large spread among solutions, predictability is quite low. Read more View the full article

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail and wind, will be possible across parts of the central and southern Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Central and Southern Plains... An upper-level low will move across the central Rockies on Saturday morning, and into the central High Plains Saturday afternoon. The associated mid-level trough will become negatively tilted, as a 90 to 100 kt mid-level jet rounds the base of the system. Ahead of the trough, low-level moisture advection will occur in the southern and central Plains. By late afternoon, surface dewpoints near the moist axis are forecast to increase into the 50s F across Oklahoma, and 40s F across Kansas and Nebraska. Weak instability should be in place near this axis by late afternoon, with thunderstorms developing from western Nebraska into central Kansas. This convection is forecast to move across the central Plains during the early evening, developing southward into Oklahoma. As the exit region of the mid-level jet moves through the central Plains Saturday afternoon, 0-6 km shear will increase into the 50 to 70 knot range along much of the moist axis. This, combined with strong large-scale ascent and steep lapse rates, will likely support the development of an isolated severe threat. However, limited moisture return and weak instability should keep the severe threat marginal. Hail and strong gusty winds will be the primary threats. Any severe threat could persist into the mid evening, as convection moves toward the Missouri Valley and Ozarks. ..Broyles.. 04/04/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... On Friday, a strong mid-level trough will move slowly across the Inter-Mountain West. As this occurs, moderate to strong mid-level flow will overspread the Southwest and High Plains with a strong lee cyclone developing in eastern Wyoming and eventually into eastern Colorado. As this occurs, 25+ mph sustained surface winds are expected across much of the High Plains. In addition, a very dry environment will be present with relative humidity in the single digits. The worst of the conditions are expected in eastern Colorado where sustained winds may exceed 30 mph. Fortunately, much of the area which will experience these very dry and very windy conditions saw recent rain/snowfall which has improved moisture quality somewhat. Several days of drying has certainly dried fine fuels sufficiently for a fire weather threat, but this recent precipitation will definitely be a limiting factor to a more widespread fire weather threat that may otherwise be realized with the expected winds and low relative humidity. ..Bentley.. 04/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

No watches are valid as of Wed Apr 3 23:02:01 UTC 2024.View the full article

No watches are valid as of Wed Apr 3 23:02:01 UTC 2024.View the full article

Flood Warning issued April 3 at 4:52PM EDT by NWS Peachtree City GAView the full article

WW 0087 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 87 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE RDU TO 30 SW RIC TO 35 NE RIC TO 20 ESE DCA. ..LYONS..04/03/24 ATTN...WFO...PHI...LWX...AKQ...RNK...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 87 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-005-032140- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT SUSSEX MDC009-011-019-035-037-039-041-045-047-032140- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALVERT CAROLINE DORCHESTER QUEEN ANNE'S ST. MARYS SOMERSET TALBOT WICOMICO WORCESTER NCC065-069-073-083-091-127-131-185-032140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES HALIFAX HERTFORD NASH Read more View the full article

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC/CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION...AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Storms capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts will continue this afternoon across eastern Virginia and vicinity, and across central Florida. ...Discussion... Current outlook areas and reasoning remain valid for the remainder of the afternoon, thus not requiring any major changes for this update. The only adjustments have been to tweak areal delineations to reflect current convective evolution, and to remove the 5% tornado probability across Florida (reducing the probability to 2%, for ongoing convection). ..Goss.. 04/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024/ ...Eastern VA/northern NC area this afternoon... A deep midlevel low near southern Lake MI will drift southeastward through early Thursday, while embedded speed maxima rotate northeastward through the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low (GA/north FL to VA). Secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected along a baroclinic zone across VA today, and this cyclone will move just off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight. Along and southeast of the cyclone track, a moistening warm sector is expected from NC into VA, where destabilization will become sufficient for additional thunderstorm development by midday. The warm sector will be characterized very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and sufficient low-level curvature/SRH for right-moving supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter this afternoon. ...North/central FL this afternoon... A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to spread southeastward through the afternoon from north toward central FL. 50+ kt midlevel flow will be maintained through the afternoon as the warm sector gradually destabilizes as temperatures warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F. This will maintain the storms through the afternoon, with the potential for a few damaging gusts of 60-70 mph with embedded line segments, and potentially a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or supercells that form just ahead of the main line of storms. Storm intensity is expected to wane by this evening/tonight as the storms move from central toward south FL. ...Southeast OR/ID this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will continue to amplify/dig southward near the Pacific Northwest coast. East of the trough, a gradual increase in midlevel flow from the southwest is expected through this evening, as well as a gradual increase in ascent along the deep-layer baroclinic zone from eastern OR into ID. Surface heating/mixing and modest low-midlevel moisture will contribute to inverted-V profiles with weak buoyancy along the baroclinic zone, and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for some organized storms. The net result should be a few cells/small clusters capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail (0.75-1 inch diameter hail) for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 04/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will approach the western CONUS on Thursday with moderate to strong mid-level flow overspreading the Southwest and Great Basin. A deeply mixed airmass is expected in the region and therefore, this stronger mid-level flow is expected to mix to the surface. Widespread 25 to 40 mph winds are expected from northern Arizona into Nevada and Utah with relative humidity of 15 to 20 percent. Despite these very windy and dry conditions in the region, the fire weather threat will remain low due to moist fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article