NorthGeorgiaWX

Public Severe Weather Outlook PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0824 AM CDT MON MAY 06 2024 ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central and southern Plains this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Much of Oklahoma Central and eastern Kansas * HAZARDS... Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track Widespread large hail, some baseball size Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force * SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe weather with multiple strong, long-tracked tornadoes, as well as very large hail and severe thunderstorm gusts, is expected over parts of the south-central Plains from this afternoon through evening. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Grams.. 05/06/2024 Read more View the full article

Public Severe Weather Outlook PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0824 AM CDT MON MAY 06 2024 ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central and southern Plains this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Much of Oklahoma Central and eastern Kansas * HAZARDS... Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track Widespread large hail, some baseball size Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force * SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe weather with multiple strong, long-tracked tornadoes, as well as very large hail and severe thunderstorm gusts, is expected over parts of the south-central Plains from this afternoon through evening. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Grams.. 05/06/2024 Read more View the full article

Public Severe Weather Outlook PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0824 AM CDT MON MAY 06 2024 ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central and southern Plains this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Much of Oklahoma Central and eastern Kansas * HAZARDS... Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track Widespread large hail, some baseball size Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force * SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe weather with multiple strong, long-tracked tornadoes, as well as very large hail and severe thunderstorm gusts, is expected over parts of the south-central Plains from this afternoon through evening. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Grams.. 05/06/2024 Read more View the full article

Public Severe Weather Outlook PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0824 AM CDT MON MAY 06 2024 ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central and southern Plains this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Much of Oklahoma Central and eastern Kansas * HAZARDS... Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track Widespread large hail, some baseball size Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force * SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe weather with multiple strong, long-tracked tornadoes, as well as very large hail and severe thunderstorm gusts, is expected over parts of the south-central Plains from this afternoon through evening. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Grams.. 05/06/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe weather with multiple strong, long-tracked tornadoes, as well as very large hail and severe thunderstorm gusts, is expected over parts of the south-central Plains from this afternoon through evening. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a strong synoptic-scale trough was evident in moisture-channel imagery from the northern Rockies, through a low over northeastern UT, then southward to the international border near the AZ/NM line. The main 500-mb low should pivot northeastward toward the Black Hills and deepen by 00Z, with trough northwestward over central MT and southward across eastern parts of CO/NM. A basal shortwave trough -- now from central CO to the Four Corners area -- should swing northeastward then northward, reaching southern SD, western NE and eastern CO by 00Z. This perturbation then should shift northeastward, possibly merging with convectively generated vorticity over NE and SD this evening and tonight, and reaching eastern SD, southwestern MN and IA by 12Z. A weaker, but still influential perturbation -- now over parts of southern NV/northern AZ -- should make a net eastward shift to parts of northeastern NM and the TX Panhandle by 00Z, reaching southern KS and northern OK by 12Z. Associated substantial height falls and DCVA should remain over and north of the Red River Valley through this evening. At the surface, an elongated area of low pressure was analyzed on the 11Z chart over eastern WY, with Pacific cold front across eastern CO and northeastern/north-central NM. A dryline extended from the front over southeastern CO to eastern NM and the TX Trans-Pecos region, and should mix eastward to southwestern KS, eastern OK/TX Panhandles, and west-central/southwest TX by late afternoon. The cold front should overtake the dryline across the central Plains through the afternoon, then over OK overnight. A developing/synoptic warm-frontal zone was apparent from southeastern WY across central KS to southern MO, and should move northeastward to the lower/mid Missouri Valley through the period. The southern warm front -- demarcating the northern rim of a richly moist Gulf airmass from outflow-modified air, was drawn near the Red River from the Arklatex to the southeastern TX Panhandle. This boundary will shift northward through OK and much of KS today while becoming diffuse, and possibly catching up to the northern warm front. ...OK, Southern KS, Red River region... Thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid/late afternoon along and ahead of the dryline, near the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK line or 100W longitude into southern KS, then strengthen quickly to severe levels as they move eastward. Given the already very favorable parameter space by late afternoon, and increasingly so into early/mid evening, the concern is high for at least a few cyclic, tornadic supercells producing multiple significant tornadoes along potentially long paths. The threat for such tornadoes, as well as very large/destructive hail, will be maintained well into the late evening, and may even increase as hodographs further enlarge beneath the LLJ. Some uncertainty lingers as to how many such supercells will track across the outlook area, but given the unusually favorable environment and increasing confidence, a "high risk" outlook is warranted for areas between roughly the I-40 corridor in OK and the US-54/500 corridor in southern KS. Compared to farther north in KS, the environment will feature slightly stronger CINH, very rich low-level moisture (dewpoints commonly upper 60s to low 70s F), lack of frontal forcing (mainly dryline instead), and more orthogonal mean-wind/deep-shear vectors relative to the boundary. The 12Z FWD sounding sampled the richly moist and deep boundary layer that will be shifting northward across OK today, with mean mixing ratio of 15 g/kg. As low clouds erode in the moist sector from west-east, diabatic heating will boost MLCAPE into the 2500-4000 J/kg range over western/central OK and southern/ central KS, and contribute to greater potential for discrete supercells to develop and last a few hours before potential major upscale evolution to lines or clusters this evening. Hodographs will be favorable for tornadoes soon after initiation, and enlarge further ahead of the activity with time. Effective SRH commonly around 200-300 J/kg is expected late this afternoon and 300-500 J/kg after 00Z, amidst strengthening LLJ and deep shear (effective-shear magnitudes reaching 45-60 kt). Effective-layer STP in the 5-12 range may be realized for a few hours this evening across parts of OK and southern KS. Stronger MLCINH and weaker large-scale support will contribute to lesser storm coverage with southward extent over southern OK, though significant tornadoes and damaging hail may be possible from any that form. The corridor of favorable buoyancy will enlarge eastward this evening with continued moisture transport/advection, helping to maintain surface-based effective-inflow parcels well eastward into the Ozarks and vicinity to maintain eventual upscale growth, possibly linking with the southern part of QLCS activity sweeping across the Missouri Valley region. ...Central Plains... Thunderstorms should develop as early as midday to early afternoon over portions of western KS and southwestern NE, where CINH will be weakest, as the southern part of the front overtakes the dryline and impinges on a rapidly destabilizing/moistening sector to the east. Initial supercell mode is possible, with tornadoes (some strong), large to very large hail and damaging gusts all possible. With time this afternoon into evening, a more quasi-linear storm mode may evolve as the influence of frontal forcing increases, versus some component of flow across the boundary. As that occurs, tornadoes still will be possible, and the hail threat will transition to severe wind with eastward extent. Some significant (near 75 mph or higher) gusts will be possible as the momentum of stronger flow aloft gets transported to the surface, with increasing forced ascent along the leading edge of the complex. 60s F surface dewpoints will overspread a northward-narrowing sector across much of KS and NE today, contributing to peak/preconvective MLCAPE increasing into the 2000-3000 J/kg range, as deep shear strengthens, and hodographs extend, while maintaining favorable curvature. ...Northern Plains... From central NE northwestward, the prefrontal corridor of favorable moisture and diurnal destabilization will become quite narrow. Nonetheless, it should support scattered thunderstorms in northward- shifting plume, curving from the western Dakotas (and perhaps parts of extreme northeastern WY and southeastern MT) southeastward to central NE, and connecting to the northern part of the central Plains severe threat. With strong large-scale lift, cooling aloft, rapidly weakening MLCINH, and robust low-level mass response/shear expected ahead of the ejecting shortwave trough, confidence is growing that an arc of strong-severe thunderstorms will develop, offering large hail, severe gusts and at least marginal tornado potential. Even with 50s to low 60s F surface dewpoints and limited time for substantial diabatic heating, the net steepening of low/ middle level lapse rates should support peak MLCAPE near or slightly above 1000 J/kg. Deep shear may not be particularly intense in a regime of strongly difluent flow aloft, but still should be adequate for supercell potential given large lowest-km hodographs possible, and effective SRH in the 150-300 J/kg range. Severe potential should diminish after about 00Z. ...West-central/southwest TX... Isolated thunderstorms are possible in mid/late afternoon along/ ahead of the dryline over northwest to southwest TX. Although large-scale/mid-upper forcing will be negligible, any pockets of relatively persistent/maximized low-level lift associated with solenoidal processes on the dryline may persist enough to initiate convection. Mid/upper 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints and steep low/middle-level lapse rates will contribute to 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE amidst enough deep shear for supercells. A conditional significant-hail and marginal tornado threat exists with sustained supercell(s) -- if any can form. Coverage concerns preclude more than marginal categorical outlook at this time. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 05/06/2024 Read more View the full article

MD 0646 CONCERNING OUTLOOK UPGRADE FOR CENTRAL...WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS Mesoscale Discussion 0646 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0712 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Areas affected...Central...West-central and North-central Oklahoma Into Far Southern Kansas Concerning...Outlook upgrade Valid 061212Z - 061315Z SUMMARY...An upgrade to High Risk will be done for the upcoming 13Z Day 1 Outlook. The following areas will be upgraded to High Risk. DISCUSSION...Central Oklahoma North-central Oklahoma West-central Oklahoma Far Southern Kansas Please refer to 13Z Day 1 Outlook for detailed reasoning. ..Broyles/Edwards.. 05/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC... LAT...LON 37489646 37659743 37629808 37289860 35319888 35039864 35129798 35249725 35559679 36999628 37489646 Read more View the full article

No watches are valid as of Mon May 6 11:22:01 UTC 2024.View the full article

No watches are valid as of Mon May 6 11:22:01 UTC 2024.View the full article

Dense Fog Advisory issued May 6 at 5:23AM EDT until May 6 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Tallahassee FLView the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Thursday... Medium-range guidance is in reasonable agreement showing an upper trough moving gradually eastward from the Midwest/OH Valley and Great Lakes to the Eastern Seaboard on Thursday. A weak surface low initially over the OH Valley should likewise advance eastward through the day while slowly deepening, and eventually reaching the Mid-Atlantic by Thursday evening. A moist low-level airmass should be in place across the Southeast, and extend northeastward into parts of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic ahead of a cold front. Weak to moderate instability should develop ahead of the front with daytime heating. Mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear is likewise expected to slowly increase through the day with the eastward progression of the upper trough. Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon, especially along/east of the Blue Ridge and Appalachian Mountains. Confidence in organized severe thunderstorms occurring has increased enough to add a broad 15% severe area from GA to the Mid-Atlantic. A separate area of potential severe thunderstorms has also become apparent across parts of TX on Thursday. A weak/low-amplitude shortwave trough should advance northeastward from northern Mexico across the southern Plains through the day, providing ascent needed to initiate convection along a surface front/dryline. A very moist and unstable airmass will likely be present south/east of these boundaries, and deep-layer shear appears sufficiently strong for severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly severe hail and damaging winds. In between the two 15% severe areas, some severe threat should also exist across the Southeast. However, the effect of a possible overnight/early Thursday morning MCS may complicate destabilization and related severe potential later in the day. Have therefore not included the central Gulf Coast States in a 15% severe delineation at this time. ...Day 5/Friday - Day 8/Monday... Limited severe potential should become increasingly confined to the immediate Gulf Coast and FL from Friday into the upcoming weekend, as a cold front continues southward. By Sunday into early next week, there are some indications in guidance that low-level moisture may begin to return northward across the southern Plains. However, model spread is large at this extended time frame, and predictability remains low. Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A broad trough will develop across much of the western and central U.S. on Tuesday. Strong flow aloft will remain across the southern Rockies. A deeper surface cyclone is expected to develop in the southern High Plains as compared to Monday. The coverage and 20+ mph winds in New Mexico should be somewhat greater as a result. RH will once again drop to 10-15% during the afternoon. Elevated to critical fire weather is once again expected. Dry and breezy conditions will extend into parts of the southern High Plains and western Kansas, but fuels appear less receptive in these areas. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A potent shortwave trough will pivot through the Southwest this morning with mid-level winds remaining strong across the southern Rockies. A deep surface cyclone will develop in the northern High Plains with a surface trough extending southward along the lee of the Rockies. Strong mid-level winds will combine with the strong surface pressure gradient to promote winds of 20+ mph, particularly in parts of eastern New Mexico. RH during the afternoon will fall to near 10-15%. Elevated to critical fire weather is expected given dry fuels present in New Mexico. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE MID-SOUTH/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms appear likely Wednesday across from parts of the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys. All severe hazards, including tornadoes, very large hail, and severe/damaging winds should occur. Some of the tornadoes may be strong. ...Southern Plains into the Mid-South/mid Mississippi Valley and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... An upper low will remain over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Wednesday. An embedded shortwave trough will eject eastward across the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley through the period. The primary surface low of interest will move across MO into IL/IN through the day, with a warm front extending eastward from this low across the OH Valley. An attendant cold front should also make some southeastward progress across the southern Plains into the mid MS Valley. A volatile setup from severe thunderstorms has become more apparent from northeast TX into the Mid-South/mid MS Valley and parts of the OH Valley, where and Enhanced Risk has been introduced. Here, a very favorable combination of strong instability and deep-layer shear is forecast to develop, supporting a threat for supercells and intense bowing clusters/line segments. Current expectations are for severe convection to erupt fairly early in the day, perhaps by late Wednesday morning, along both the cold front and warm front as ascent with the shortwave trough overspreads the rapidly destabilizing warm sector. Although convective evolution remains somewhat uncertain, very large hail will be a threat with initial supercells, and severe/damaging winds will likely become an increasing concern as intense convection spreads east-southeastward through the afternoon and evening. A moderate to strong low-level jet should migrate eastward across the mid MS and OH Valleys through the day, supporting enhanced low-level shear, especially in the vicinity of the warm front. Tornadoes will be a concern with any supercells in this favorable shear environment. Some of these tornadoes could be strong given the favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment. The severe threat is expected to continue with southward and eastward extent into the lower MS Valley, TN Valley, and central/southern Appalachians through at least Wednesday evening before eventually weakening. Peripheral areas of severe potential are also apparent. One such area is in IA and vicinity with low-topped convection beneath the cold-core upper low. Another is in the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas with a separate mid-level shortwave trough and surface lee trough extending southward along the length of the Appalachians. The severe threat across these regions is currently expected to remain fairly isolated/marginal. ..Gleason.. 05/06/2024 Read more View the full article

MD 0622 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 180... FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS Mesoscale Discussion 0622 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0828 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Areas affected...Southwest Kansas into northwest Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 180... Valid 040128Z - 040330Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 180 continues. SUMMARY...Large hail and severe wind gusts remain possible even as storms may tend to become elevated later into the evening. DISCUSSION...KVNX/KDDC VAD profiles show an increase in the low-level jet. The 00Z observed DDC sounding showed very steep mid-level lapse rates though some capping was also present. Current convection in WW 180 is expected to continue eastward with aid from the low-level jet. The primary severe risk will exist with a storm near the Wichita/Kearney County line. This storm will be capable of hail up to 1.5-2 in. A line of storms is also moving east from near Garden City to just west of Beaver, OK. This line has shown some deepening cores on MRMS CAPPI and could produce severe wind gusts. The overall eastern extent of the severe risk is not clear. However, even as storms may become elevated with time, large hail and isolated damaging winds could still occur. The tornado risk is conditional on a discrete storm mode and should continue to diminish as low-level stability increases. Some areal extension of WW 180 could be needed depending on convective trends over the next 2 hours. ..Wendt.. 05/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA... LAT...LON 38680144 39000081 38999910 38689893 38069879 38049879 37999879 37279897 36849950 36660018 36540079 36620141 36700160 38680144 Read more View the full article

MD 0623 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA Mesoscale Discussion 0623 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0926 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Areas affected...Portions of northwest Oklahoma...central Kansas...southeast Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 040226Z - 040430Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The environment should remain supportive of large hail and severe wind gusts over the next few hours. A low-end tornado threat will also exist, particularly for remaining discrete storms. A new severe thunderstorm watch is likely. DISCUSSION...Convection within the central/southern Plains continues to move eastward this evening. Regional VAD wind show and increase in the low-level jet (40-50 kts). Along with the low-level jet, 60+ F dewpoints and observed steep mid-level lapse rates will continue to support some threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Low-level hodograph curvature is evident on VAD wind profiles as well. Some tornado threat will exist, though the primarily linear storm mode should limit a greater threat. A new severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed for at least parts of areas from northwest Oklahoma into southeast Nebraska. ..Wendt/Guyer.. 05/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 39759800 40359737 40629696 40469657 39489649 38579701 37399791 35949880 35549936 35419993 36060004 37129925 38239881 39759800 Read more View the full article

MD 0624 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 179... FOR PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TEXAS Mesoscale Discussion 0624 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0938 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Areas affected...portions of the Edwards Plateau of Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 179... Valid 040238Z - 040445Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 179 continues. SUMMARY...Local severe risk may continue for another 1 to 2 hours. While a local extension of the WW in time may be needed locally, new WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows storms gradually diminishing in general across the region, in and near WW 179. The strongest storms are ongoing now over the Kimble county vicinity, where large hail is indicated per recent WSR-88D data. While an overall decrease in storms should continue, and is supported by various CAMs, the Kimble county convection may continue for the next hour or two, shifting slowly southward/south-southeastward with time. Severe risk in this area appears sufficient to warrant a local extension of WW 179 beyond its scheduled 04/03Z expiration. ..Goss.. 05/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 29700017 30740041 30899982 30739938 30329924 29939919 29700017 Read more View the full article

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern Plains. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary risks. ...01z Outlook... Cool mid-level profiles, and steep lapse rates contributed to the evolution of supercell clusters over much of northwest TX into the Edwards Plateau region. This activity is beginning to overturn much of the buoyancy across northwest TX, hence the strongest updrafts are now propagating southeast across the Edwards Plateau along an instability axis characterized by MLCAPE on the order of 3000 J/kg. Additionally, strong convection has developed just west of the international border and is approaching Eagle Pass. Will adjust severe probabilities into the middle Rio Grande Valley to account for this activity spreading east of the River. Farther north, organized band of thunderstorms has developed along a cold front that is surging southeast across south-central NE-northwest KS-northeast CO. In addition to a few dryline supercells over western KS, this complex will continue to propagate southeast aided in large part to the surging cold front. Given the organization of this activity, and momentum, will extend higher severe probs a bit downstream to account for wind/hail threat with this squall line. ..Darrow.. 05/04/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Wed May 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 05/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Wed May 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across the southern High Plains today in response to development of a lee cyclone, as increasing mid-level flow overspreads the Rockies. Deeply mixed profiles by the afternoon will yield single-digit relative humidity amid sustained winds 20 to 25 mph, across portions of eastern New Mexico into the northern Texas Panhandle. Drying conditions and lowering relative humidity extend into Oklahoma/Texas during the afternoon. This has warranted expansion of the Elevated further east into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. ERCs are forecast to be in the 75th percentile. Critical fire weather conditions are still most likely across eastern New Mexico into far western Texas, where dry conditions will overlap receptive fuels for the longest duration this afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Wed May 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA/WEST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat today for large to very large hail, severe thunderstorm gusts and a few tornadoes will be in from south-central Kansas into western Oklahoma, the eastern Texas Panhandle and northwest/west-central Texas. ...Southern KS/Western OK/TX Panhandle... Late morning surface analysis shows a low near Guymon OK, with a remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms extending southward through the eastern TX Panhandle and across southern OK. It is unclear whether this boundary will wash out through the afternoon, or be maintained by shower/thunderstorm activity over southwest OK. Regardless, thunderstorms will form rapidly on the dryline from southwest KS into the eastern TX Panhandle late this afternoon and interact with the remnant boundary. Supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are possible along this corridor through the early evening. There is a chance of a strong tornado or two, but confidence in position is not high enough to increase tornado probabilities at this time. ...West TX... Strong heating will occur today west of the dryline over west TX, leading to scattered intense storm development. Initial discrete supercells will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes, but organized outflows appear likely given latest model guidance, which will promote damaging wind gusts as storms spread eastward through the evening. ...Central TX today and tonight... A very moist low-level air mass is in place today over south-central TX, with dewpoints well into the 70s. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected to form in this environment, where sufficient CAPE and deep-layer shear will promote organized/supercell structures. Given the abundant low-level theta-e and veering low-level wind fields, a tornado or two is possible, along with locally gusty/damaging winds. Tonight, storms that form over west TX may organize into an MCS and track into central TX. A strengthening sub-tropical mid-level wind max will help to sustain the activity, with a continued risk of damaging winds overnight. ...Southern NE/Northern KS tonight... Relatively widespread thunderstorms are expected to form after dark over southwest NE/northwest KS ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. This activity will spread eastward overnight, with sufficient (mainly) elevated CAPE to support hail and gusty winds in the stronger cores. ..Hart/Barnes/Lyons.. 05/01/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Wed May 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat today for large to very large hail, severe thunderstorm gusts and a few tornadoes will be in western Oklahoma, the eastern Texas Panhandle and northwest/west-central Texas. ...Synopsis... An elongated, mid/upper-level cyclone -- currently astride the Canadian border of MT/ID -- is expected to consolidate somewhat and move eastward slowly through the period. By 12Z, the main circulation center should be along the MT/SK line or slightly further north into southern SK. A series of mostly low-amplitude shortwaves will traverse the associated, amplifying, cyclonic flow field across the Intermountain West and Rockies. While these perturbations should remain apart from the severe-outlook areas today, the broader/associated regime of height falls and southwest flow aloft will spread out over much of the central/southern Plains through the period. A weak, but potentially important, southern- stream trough was apparent in moisture-channel imagery from the southern part of the AZ/NM line south-southeastward across western Chihuahua. By 00Z, this feature is expected to reach the Big Bend/Serranias del Burro region of southwest TX and northern Coahuila, respectively. The 11Z surface analysis showed a frontal-wave low near GUY, with cold front across the northwestern/west-central TX Panhandle to northeastern NM. A warm to stationary front was drawn from the low across extreme southern KS to southern MO, and should shift northward as a warm front over central/northern KS today as the low moves northeastward and weakens, while a new low forms over southeastern CO. An outflow boundary was drawn from western AR across north-central TX to northwest TX and the eastern Panhandle, with some active reinforcement underway by convection over central/ southern OK that is elevated, per 12Z OUN sounding. A dryline initially over the Llano Estacado near the TX/NM line should shift eastward today to the eastern Panhandle and South Plains regions, while remaining over the Permian Basin. ...Central/southern Plains... Isolated, marginally severe hail is possible from elevated convection this morning over portions of OK. Later, a potentially complex, messy and episodic convective threat is evident over the southern Plains, from midafternoon through overnight. The 30% area has been modified southward somewhat but remains over what appears to be the most favorable environment for concentrated wind/hail threats. Swaths of strong to severe gusts are possible across a broader area of TX/OK into late tonight, and the 15% area has been expanded mainly on the southeast side. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form near the dryline this afternoon from southwestern/central KS to southwest TX, and move generally eastward, with a blend of supercell and multicell modes during the first few hours. This is when large to very large hail will be most probable. Damaging-wind potential should start on a localized basis with those more-discrete early storms, then increase from late afternoon into evening as activity congeals into a few clusters or complexes between the Edwards Plateau and western OK. A few tornadoes also may occur, especially with any sustained/discrete supercells and storms near the dryline/warm-front intersection. Additional development is possible late this afternoon into tonight ahead of the dryline -- across parts of south TX and the Serranias del Burro region ahead of the southern-stream perturbation aloft. This also may grow upscale into strong-severe clusters, forward propagating eastward over south-central/southeast TX, with damaging gusts being the main concern. A substantial factor (and lingering uncertainty) in bounding substantial severe potential on the north end will be the position and character of the outflow boundary/boundaries from yesterday night's MCS activity in southern and northern OK. Each complex yielded substantial theta-e deficits in their resulting cold pools, with related drying still manifest as upper 50s to low 60s F surface dewpoints from the DFW Metroplex across much of OK. Return flow of much richer moisture is expected around the western rim of that modified air mass, which itself should advect northward through parts of OK today. Strong heating, steep low/middle-level lapse rates and favorable moisture should yield MLCAPE in the 2500-3500 J/kg range near the moist axis, amidst 25-40-kt effective-shear magnitudes and somewhat-favorable hodographs for supercells. However, the most-favorable sector over the western OK/eastern Panhandle region -- and especially into KS south of the warm front -- may be narrow, limiting eastward extent of organized severe threats after initial dryline activity. Farther south, more clustering and forward propagation are expected with greater eastward reach, with the moist sector having not been modified as much, or at all, by the prior MCS outflow. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 05/01/2024 Read more View the full article

No watches are valid as of Wed May 1 10:02:02 UTC 2024.View the full article

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in good agreement on Friday/D4 showing an upper trough lifting north out of the upper MS Valley and across western Ontario, with a deep upper low moving south just off the coastal Pacific Northwest. High pressure will exist over the Plains in the wake of the northern trough, and is forecast to persist into Saturday/D5 as a secondary lobe rotates the parent Ontario low. While a moist air mass over the southern Plains and Gulf Coast will support thunderstorms during this period, little organization or shear is forecast. From Sunday/D6 onward, spread becomes large amongst the model ensembles, especially in regard to the West Coast low and possible trough amplification as it moves ashore. That said, the overarching theme through D8 and perhaps beyond is for rising heights across the East, and a mean trough across the West, which may eventually prove favorable for moisture return, large-scale ascent and shear across parts of the central CONUS. Some models such as the ECMWF suggest a multi-day period of very strong to extreme instability, as well as southwest flow aloft across the central and southern Plains toward the MS Valley. While predictability is low that far out, the evolution of this pattern will be watched closely. Read more View the full article

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible on Thursday from parts of the upper Mississippi Valley into the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move across the northern Plains during the day, and across the upper MS Valley into Friday morning, becoming negatively tilted. Meanwhile, the primary surface low is expected to move from eastern NE across IA and into WI, with a secondary trough extending northwestward across MN and ND. Extending south of the low, a cold front will stretch from IA into OK during the afternoon, with a plume of low to mid 60s F dewpoints ahead of the front. Southwesterly winds of 40+ kt at 850 will aid warming and destabilization across IA and northern IL during the day as a warm front lifts north. To the south, a dryline will remain over west-central Texas, with a very moist and unstable air mass to the east. ...Upper MS Valley into KS/MO... Substantial/ongoing rain and thunderstorms are expected Thursday morning from the front/outflow near the NE/IA border northeastward along and north of the warm front across IA, southern MN and WI. Predictability in terms of placement is low, but any ongoing MCS may be capable of strong to locally severe gusts, and marginal hail cannot be ruled out north of the warm front with 1000+ MUCAPE. Additional storms may develop southward along the front into KS and MO during the day with the help of heating. However, the ejecting wave to the north will tend to limit large-scale support with southward extent. Still, areas of gusty winds or marginal hail will be possible. ...OK into TX... Heating along the dryline, and perhaps ahead of the sagging cold front, will likely yield scattered daytime storms, though shear will be relatively weak over OK. Stronger high-level winds will exist over TX beneath the southern-stream jet extending northeastward out of Mexico, and this may favor a few storms with large hail along the dryline in TX. Cool midlevel temperatures and straight hodographs will also favor hail. A small/targeted Slight Risk could be added for parts of the TX dryline in later outlooks as predictability increases. ..Jewell.. 04/30/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across the southern High Plains on Wednesday in response to a development of a lee cyclone, as increasing mid-level flow overspreads the Rockies. Deeply mixed profiles by the afternoon will yield single-digit relative humidity amid sustained winds 20 to 25 mph across portions of eastern New Mexico into the northern Texas Panhandle. Little recent rainfall across this area has sufficiently dried fuels, with ERCs forecast to be in the 75th percentile. This will support Critical fire weather concerns, with broader Elevated fire weather concerns extending into southeastern Colorado and the western Oklahoma Panhandle. ..Thornton.. 04/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

No watches are valid as of Mon Apr 29 14:02:01 UTC 2024.View the full article