NorthGeorgiaWX

Public Severe Weather Outlook PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0223 AM CDT WED MAY 08 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Ozarks to middle Tennessee later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Southern Missouri Northwestern to middle Tennessee Southwestern Kentucky Extreme southern Illinois Extreme northeastern Arkansas * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A few intense tornadoes Widespread large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms appear likely Wednesday from parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys into the southern Plains. All severe hazards, including tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and potentially significant damaging winds are possible. Some of the tornadoes may be strong. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && Read more View the full article

Public Severe Weather Outlook PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0223 AM CDT WED MAY 08 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Ozarks to middle Tennessee later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Southern Missouri Northwestern to middle Tennessee Southwestern Kentucky Extreme southern Illinois Extreme northeastern Arkansas * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A few intense tornadoes Widespread large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms appear likely Wednesday from parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys into the southern Plains. All severe hazards, including tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and potentially significant damaging winds are possible. Some of the tornadoes may be strong. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && Read more View the full article

MD 0676 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN IL...WESTERN/NORTHERN IN...AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MI Mesoscale Discussion 0676 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Areas affected...central/eastern IL...western/northern IN...and southwest Lower MI Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 071714Z - 071915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A few supercells are expected to develop from central to eastern Illinois into western Indiana by mid-afternoon. Large hail and isolated damaging winds will be the primary threat west, with tornado potential becoming greater east. DISCUSSION...Pronounced boundary-layer recovery is ongoing in the wake of an earlier morning QLCS with robust insolation beneath the eastern periphery of a central Great Plains elevated mixed-layer. Low-level convergence along the surface cold front is expected to strengthen as the nose of an intense mid/upper-level jet overspreads the boundary through the afternoon. While convective development is largely expected to remain on the northern gradient of the richer low-level moisture/larger buoyancy spreading into the Lower OH Valley, the highly favorable mid to upper-level wind profiles will support splitting supercell structures as convection matures. Low-level flow will become increasingly veered near the front from west to east, suggesting that large hail and isolated damaging winds should be the primary threat with western extent. The risk for a few tornadoes will be greater with eastern extent, including potential for a strong tornado in IN. ..Grams/Smith.. 05/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN... LAT...LON 39298869 39798926 40288944 41008964 41788939 41978901 42318856 42438755 42578585 42068512 40968572 39858640 39308767 39298869 Read more View the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO... The Elevated area was extended westward into the White Mountains in northern Arizona. Latest fuel guidance indicates ERCs in this region are approaching the 75 percentile. Otherwise, no changes were made to the Critical area. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Tue May 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper cyclone will be situated in the northern Plains today. Strong mid-level winds will remain across the southern Rockies. A surface cyclone will deepen in the southern High Plains. ...Southwest... Strong surface winds will develop in response to the upper trough and surface cyclone to the east. Winds of 15-25 mph appear probable with locally higher speeds in terrain-favored areas. RH will fall to 10-15% though single digits could occur locally. Fuels in the area will continue to support an elevated to critical fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

No watches are valid as of Tue May 7 12:42:02 UTC 2024.View the full article

No watches are valid as of Tue May 7 12:42:02 UTC 2024.View the full article

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday from the Mid-South northeastward into the Ohio Valley. A few tornadoes, large to very large hail, and severe/damaging winds all appear possible, particularly from northeast Indiana into northwest and central Ohio. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper cyclone is forecast to remain largely in place over the western Dakotas while continuing to occlude. A convectively augmented shortwave trough will likely move through the base of this cyclone, progressing from the Mid MS Valley quickly northeastward into the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes during the day. Primary surface low will occlude beneath the parent cyclone, but a secondary low will likely develop at the triple point, moving from the MN/IA border vicinity east-northeastward across central/southern MN into Lower MI. The cold front extending southward from this secondary low is forecast to push eastward across the Mid MS and OH Valleys, while the warm front shifts northeastward into Lower MI and the Upper OH Valley. ...Mid-South/Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley... A decaying convective line will likely extend from southern WI through western IL and into western portions of the Mid-South early Tuesday morning. Buoyancy will be modest ahead of this line, which will likely limit the severe potential. Even so, there is still a low-probability chance for a few instances of hail and/or damaging gusts, particularly along the southern end of the convective line in the Mid-South vicinity where buoyancy is greatest. The convective line is expected to make quick northeastward progress, clearing the through the Lower OH Valley by the late morning and much of the Middle OH Valley by the early afternoon. The air mass is expected to recover quickly in its wake, with mid to upper 60s dewpoints advecting in from the southwest. Additional thunderstorm development is expected around 17-18Z across IL, supported by both warm-air advection and increasing large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough. This initial activity will likely be elevated, but shear is strong enough to support some more organized structures capable of hail. As the downstream airmass across OH and IN destabilizes, these initial storms will likely trend towards becoming more surface-based. Given the strong vertical shear in place, the potential for supercells will increase as storms become surface based. All severe hazards will be possible with these supercells, including large hail and tornadoes. The tornado threat is expected to maximize from northeast IN into western and central OH during the late afternoon/early evening, where the proximity to the warm front will contribute to better low-level shear. ...Upper Midwest... Despite relatively cool surface temperatures, cooling mid-levels coupled with modest low-level moisture are expected to result in airmass destabilization and modest buoyancy ahead of the triple point and associated surface boundaries. Thunderstorm development is anticipated both near the triple point, as well as along and north/northeast of the occluded front. Much of the activity in the vicinity of the occluded front will likely be elevated, but a few stronger updrafts capable of hail are still possible. More surface-based storms are possible near the triple point across southern WI. Here, isolated hail and gusty winds may occur with the more robust cores, and a brief tornado or two also appears possible. ...Mid-Atlantic... Isolated to perhaps widely scattered thunderstorms may develop Tuesday afternoon across parts of VA/NC, generally along/east of a weak surface lee trough. Sufficient forecast instability and shear should be present to support some threat for hail and strong winds with any thunderstorms that form. The overall severe threat is expected to remain fairly isolated/marginal. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Deep South... This region will be displaced south of the stronger forcing for ascent, but moderate buoyancy and vertical shear still suggest there is isolated severe potential with any storms that do form. Current guidance suggests the greatest probability of storms exists across MS and AL where the low-level moisture convergence is greatest. ...Central Texas... The severe thunderstorm threat remains highly conditional across parts of central TX Tuesday afternoon along/near a low-level moisture gradient/sharpening dryline. Large-scale ascent will be negligible, with thunderstorm initiation relying on surface convergence. If any thunderstorms can form and persist, they could become severe given a strongly unstable airmass. This scenario remain too uncertain to add low severe probabilities with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 05/06/2024 Read more View the full article

WW 0188 Status Updates STATUS FOR WATCH 0188 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more View the full article

WW 0188 Status Updates STATUS FOR WATCH 0188 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more View the full article

WW 188 SEVERE TSTM MT ND SD 061715Z - 070100Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 188 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Montana Southwest North Dakota Central and Western South Dakota * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1215 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...An arcing band of strong to severe thunderstorms is forecast to develop this afternoon across the Watch area. Small-scale bands and a few supercells are possible and will pose a risk for mainly severe gusts and large hail. A tornado or two is possible, especially where more persistent and stronger thunderstorms encounter stronger low-level shear. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 120 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles east northeast of Baker MT to 55 miles south southwest of Chamberlain SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 187... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 19035. ...Smith Read more View the full article

WW 188 SEVERE TSTM MT ND SD 061715Z - 070100Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 188 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Montana Southwest North Dakota Central and Western South Dakota * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1215 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...An arcing band of strong to severe thunderstorms is forecast to develop this afternoon across the Watch area. Small-scale bands and a few supercells are possible and will pose a risk for mainly severe gusts and large hail. A tornado or two is possible, especially where more persistent and stronger thunderstorms encounter stronger low-level shear. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 120 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles east northeast of Baker MT to 55 miles south southwest of Chamberlain SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 187... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 19035. ...Smith Read more View the full article

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... Minimal changes were made to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. The Elevated delineation was expanded further west into northwestern New Mexico and further east into southeastern Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle. These changes were in line with recent trends in guidance. The Critical area remains unchanged with this outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0300 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... A potent shortwave trough will pivot through the Southwest this morning with mid-level winds remaining strong across the southern Rockies. A deep surface cyclone will develop in the northern High Plains with a surface trough extending southward along the lee of the Rockies. Strong mid-level winds will combine with the strong surface pressure gradient to promote winds of 20+ mph, particularly in parts of eastern New Mexico. RH during the afternoon will fall to near 10-15%. Elevated to critical fire weather is expected given dry fuels present in New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article

MD 0647 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL KS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL NE Mesoscale Discussion 0647 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Areas affected...northwest/north-central KS and south-central NE Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 061557Z - 061800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...An arc of severe thunderstorms should develop by early afternoon along the composite cold front/dryline. Tornadoes, large hail, and severe wind gusts are expected with a midday tornado watch issuance. DISCUSSION...15Z surface analysis placed the composite cold front/dryline across southwest NE into far western KS. A lobe of large-scale ascent indicated by a patch of upper-level cirrus along the KS/CO border will rapidly spread northeast and likely aid in convective development along the KS/NE border area during the next few hours. A plume of at least moderate buoyancy is already present, with earlier MLCIN noted in 12Z LBF/DDC soundings waning. Enlarged/elongated hodographs will favor supercell structures, especially with southern extent where a couple strong tornadoes will be possible. Linear frontal forcing and potential for pinching of the northeast portion of the surface-based buoyancy plume should yield greater potential for upscale growth earlier with northern extent. A mix of tornadoes, large hail, and severe wind gusts is expected. ..Grams/Smith.. 05/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 39220046 40650055 41430064 41860013 41919910 41219818 40069774 39069768 38519826 38269914 38170010 38680039 39220046 Read more View the full article

MD 0648 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR NORTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA Mesoscale Discussion 0648 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Areas affected...Far northwest Nebraska into western South Dakota and far southwest North Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 061607Z - 061800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along a cold front in the vicinity of a deepening surface low are expected to continue intensifying through the mid-afternoon hours. This activity may strengthen to severe limits and require watch issuance by late morning/early afternoon. DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, strong surface pressure falls (on the order of 1-2 mb/hour) have been observed across the western Dakotas amid increasing synoptic ascent over the northern High Plains. Concurrently, a Pacific cold front is pushing east and impinging on a narrow corridor of returning moisture. Consequently, weak convection has developed along the front and in the vicinity of the surface low. The expectation for the next several hours is for this activity to intensify owing to a combination of continued theta-e advection into a narrow warm sector (confined to the east by thick low/mid-level stratus that is resulting in muted diurnal warming) and steepening mid-level lapse rates associated with strong synoptic ascent and cooling temperatures aloft. MLCAPE values are forecast to reach 1500-2000 J/kg by mid-afternoon, which appears to be on track based on recent observed trends. Southerly mid/upper-level winds will support off-boundary organization of cells that may favor discrete to semi-discrete storm modes. Large hail (most likely 1.0 to 1.5 inches in diameter) and severe gusts will be the predominant hazard, but low-level helicity within the warm sector (observed values around 150 m2/s2 are noted in the KUDX VWP) combined with ample ambient vorticity along the boundary should support a tornado threat with more intense cells. The narrow spatial extent of the warm sector introduces some uncertainty into the overall coverage of the severe threat, but trends will continue to be monitored for the need of watch issuance. ..Moore/Smith.. 05/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ... LAT...LON 42820272 43630338 43870382 44260430 44580466 45050498 45570517 46000490 46370422 46430302 46240166 46030122 45370069 44520052 43800051 42790060 42310085 42020150 42200213 42820272 Read more View the full article

MD 0649 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN KS...WESTERN/CENTRAL OK...AND EASTERN TX PANHANDLE Mesoscale Discussion 0649 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Areas affected...southern KS...western/central OK...and eastern TX Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 061647Z - 061845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...PDS Tornado Watch issuance will be needed ahead of this portion of the dryline during the early afternoon. At least a few long-track, discrete supercells are expected, becoming capable of producing intense (EF3+) tornadoes. DISCUSSION...16Z surface analysis placed the dryline from near Garden City, KS to Lubbock, TX, with the Pacific cold front lagging westward with southern extent in the southern High Plains. Airmass continues to destabilize ahead of the dryline, with MLCIN becoming weak into at least western OK and the TX Panhandle where boundary-layer warming has been more prominent in cloud breaks. The expectation is for initial dryline/Pacific front development to occur in southwest KS and build south into the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK vicinity by late afternoon. Ample low to deep-layer shear will support several supercells with very large hail, tornadoes, and severe gusts probable. The impinging of an intense upper jet from NM into western OK over the next several hours, along with strengthening of low-level flow this evening, will yield an increasingly favorable kinematic environment for long-track and intense supercells capable of significant tornadoes, especially with southern extent in western/central OK. ..Grams/Smith.. 05/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 38020038 38419902 38439838 38209755 37769729 37349720 35949717 34649722 34029793 34069974 34280034 35140050 36740063 38020038 Read more View the full article

WW 0187 Status Updates STATUS FOR WATCH 0187 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more View the full article

WW 0187 Status Updates STATUS FOR WATCH 0187 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more View the full article

WW 187 TORNADO KS NE 061635Z - 070000Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 187 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of North-Central Kansas Central Nebraska * Effective this Monday morning and evening from 1135 AM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon across the Watch area. Supercells capable of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and severe gusts are forecast. A strong tornado or two is possible later this afternoon, mainly across portions of north-central Kansas into south-central Nebraska as the environment becomes increasingly favorable for tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north northeast of Ainsworth NE to 35 miles south of Russell KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Smith Read more View the full article

WW 187 TORNADO KS NE 061635Z - 070000Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 187 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of North-Central Kansas Central Nebraska * Effective this Monday morning and evening from 1135 AM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon across the Watch area. Supercells capable of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and severe gusts are forecast. A strong tornado or two is possible later this afternoon, mainly across portions of north-central Kansas into south-central Nebraska as the environment becomes increasingly favorable for tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north northeast of Ainsworth NE to 35 miles south of Russell KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Smith Read more View the full article

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe weather with multiple intense (EF3+), long-tracked tornadoes, as well as very large hail and severe thunderstorm gusts, is expected over parts of the south-central Plains from this afternoon through evening. ...NE/KS/OK to north TX... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a potent mid- to upper-level trough/low over the central Rockies with a speed max moving through the base of the trough and into the southern and central High Plains. This negatively tilted mid level trough will continue northeast to near the Black Hills by this evening while its southern portion overspreads the KS/OK corridor. The 12z Amarillo, TX raob showed the leading edge of stronger 700-600 mb southwesterly flow nosing eastward into the High Plains. A cyclone near the NE Panhandle this morning will deepen as it moves north-northeast to the SD/ND border early Tuesday morning. An associated Pacific front will push east into the High Plains and overtake the northern portion of the dryline across parts of the central High Plains this afternoon into this evening. Farther south, a dryline will mix east into western OK by late this afternoon with a broad moist/unstable warm sector across the southern Great Plains and becoming increasingly pinched in spatial width farther north into the north-central Great Plains. An attendant warm front will advance northward from OK into the lower MO Valley by early evening and later into the mid MS Valley. Visible satellite imagery shows considerable low stratus and stratocumulus from north TX into the central Great Plains. The 12z Fort Worth, TX raob sampled the richer low-level moisture (15 g/kg lowest 100mb mean mixing ratio) compared to areas farther north. Surface analysis late this morning shows rapid northward transport of moisture into OK with 65-70 deg F dewpoints advecting northward through OK to the KS border. This plume of richer moisture will continue northward today beneath an EML and lead to moderate destabilization over NE with a very to extremely unstable airmass forecast to develop farther south over the southern half of KS into OK and adjacent north TX. Initial thunderstorm development is likely as the upper forcing impinges on the northwestern periphery of the moist/unstable sector across the central High Plains (western KS/NE) and northward into SD with time. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates and strengthening flow becoming more meridional with time will favor organized storms, including supercells and bands of storms with an associated isolated to scattered risk for hail/wind and perhaps a few tornadoes. Farther south, the erosion of the cap is expected initially over the KS portion of the dryline and perhaps into northwest OK by the mid afternoon. Strengthening flow through the column combined with strong to extreme buoyancy (2500-4500 J/kg MLCAPE) --from I-70 in central KS to I-40 in central OK-- will strongly favor supercell development. Strong upper-level diffluence across the central Great Plains and intensifying southwesterly to westerly 250-mb flow, which will result in very long hodographs, will strongly favor discrete storm modes, at least initially. Large to giant hail (3-4 inches in diameter) is possible with the more robust supercells. The LLJ is forecast to be strongest over KS northward into the north-central Plains through 21z. During the 21-00z timeframe, the flow associated with the LLJ will strengthen over OK acting to enlarge hodographs. Climatologically large combinations of deep-layer shear, buoyancy, and SRH will result in extreme values of composite indices (STP 6-12) during the 22z-06z timeframe across the Moderate to High Risks. Several discrete supercells are expected to traverse across a large portion of the Moderate and High-Risk equivalent tornado probabilities. Tornadoes, some of which can be intense (EF3+), are forecast late this afternoon and well into the evening. Some model guidance shows regenerative supercell development across central OK this evening. Have extended the High Risk slightly farther south to account for this possibility. ...Lower MO Valley/Ozarks/mid MS Valley late... As greater storm coverage and merging occurs this evening across KS into northern OK, large-scale ascent will further promote upscale growth into a severe squall line across eastern KS and moving into the lower MO Valley and western part of the Ozarks. Have upgraded severe-wind probabilities and this resulted in a slight spatial extension of the Moderate Risk to the east across southeast KS/northeast OK. A severe risk will probably continue east to the MS River overnight with an attendant wind risk and perhaps an isolated risk for a tornado. ...Northern Plains... No appreciable change from previous forecast thinking for severe potential across the northern Plains. A prefrontal corridor of favorable moisture and diurnal destabilization will become quite narrow with north and northwestward extent. Nonetheless, it should support scattered thunderstorms in northward-shifting plume, curving from the western Dakotas (and perhaps parts of extreme northeastern WY and southeastern MT) southeastward to central NE, and connecting to the northern part of the central Plains severe threat. With strong large-scale lift, cooling aloft, rapidly weakening MLCINH, and robust low-level mass response/shear expected ahead of the ejecting shortwave trough, confidence is growing that an arc of strong-severe thunderstorms will develop, offering large hail, severe gusts and at least marginal tornado potential. Even with 50s to low 60s F surface dewpoints and limited time for substantial diabatic heating, the net steepening of low/middle level lapse rates should support peak MLCAPE near or slightly above 1000 J/kg. Deep shear may not be particularly intense in a regime of strongly difluent flow aloft, but still should be adequate for supercell potential given large lowest-km hodographs possible, and effective SRH in the 150-300 J/kg range. Severe potential should diminish after about 00Z. ...West-central/southwest TX... Model guidance continues to indicate isolated thunderstorms are possible in mid/late afternoon along/ ahead of the dryline over northwest to southwest TX. Although large-scale/mid-upper forcing will be negligible (displaced to the north), any pockets of relatively persistent/maximized low-level lift may aid in local erosion of the cap and convective initiation. Mid/upper 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints and steep low/middle-level lapse rates will contribute to 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE amidst enough deep shear for supercells. A conditional significant-hail and marginal tornado threat exists with sustained supercell(s) -- if any can form. Coverage concerns preclude more than marginal categorical outlook at this time. ...Mid South/TN Valley into the southern Appalachians... A mid-level shortwave trough over TN this morning will continue to move east into the southern Appalachians today. An enhanced belt of westerly mid-level flow accompanying this impulse will overspread this general region. In wake of decaying morning convection over the southern Appalachians, ample heating of a moist boundary layer will result in moderate destabilization by early-mid afternoon. Storm redevelopment is forecast this afternoon along and north of a trailing/diffuse convective boundary over the TN Valley. Scattered thunderstorms will probably develop by early to mid afternoon. Effective shear magnitudes 25-30 kt will support some organization in the form of clusters and perhaps transient supercells. Marginal Risk equivalent severe probabilities have been added to highlight this isolated severe threat. ..Smith/Moore.. 05/06/2024 Read more View the full article

Public Severe Weather Outlook PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0824 AM CDT MON MAY 06 2024 ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central and southern Plains this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Much of Oklahoma Central and eastern Kansas * HAZARDS... Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track Widespread large hail, some baseball size Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force * SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe weather with multiple strong, long-tracked tornadoes, as well as very large hail and severe thunderstorm gusts, is expected over parts of the south-central Plains from this afternoon through evening. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Grams.. 05/06/2024 Read more View the full article

Public Severe Weather Outlook PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0824 AM CDT MON MAY 06 2024 ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central and southern Plains this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Much of Oklahoma Central and eastern Kansas * HAZARDS... Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track Widespread large hail, some baseball size Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force * SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe weather with multiple strong, long-tracked tornadoes, as well as very large hail and severe thunderstorm gusts, is expected over parts of the south-central Plains from this afternoon through evening. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Grams.. 05/06/2024 Read more View the full article

Public Severe Weather Outlook PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0824 AM CDT MON MAY 06 2024 ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central and southern Plains this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Much of Oklahoma Central and eastern Kansas * HAZARDS... Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track Widespread large hail, some baseball size Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force * SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe weather with multiple strong, long-tracked tornadoes, as well as very large hail and severe thunderstorm gusts, is expected over parts of the south-central Plains from this afternoon through evening. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Grams.. 05/06/2024 Read more View the full article

Public Severe Weather Outlook PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0824 AM CDT MON MAY 06 2024 ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central and southern Plains this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Much of Oklahoma Central and eastern Kansas * HAZARDS... Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track Widespread large hail, some baseball size Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force * SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe weather with multiple strong, long-tracked tornadoes, as well as very large hail and severe thunderstorm gusts, is expected over parts of the south-central Plains from this afternoon through evening. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Grams.. 05/06/2024 Read more View the full article

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe weather with multiple strong, long-tracked tornadoes, as well as very large hail and severe thunderstorm gusts, is expected over parts of the south-central Plains from this afternoon through evening. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a strong synoptic-scale trough was evident in moisture-channel imagery from the northern Rockies, through a low over northeastern UT, then southward to the international border near the AZ/NM line. The main 500-mb low should pivot northeastward toward the Black Hills and deepen by 00Z, with trough northwestward over central MT and southward across eastern parts of CO/NM. A basal shortwave trough -- now from central CO to the Four Corners area -- should swing northeastward then northward, reaching southern SD, western NE and eastern CO by 00Z. This perturbation then should shift northeastward, possibly merging with convectively generated vorticity over NE and SD this evening and tonight, and reaching eastern SD, southwestern MN and IA by 12Z. A weaker, but still influential perturbation -- now over parts of southern NV/northern AZ -- should make a net eastward shift to parts of northeastern NM and the TX Panhandle by 00Z, reaching southern KS and northern OK by 12Z. Associated substantial height falls and DCVA should remain over and north of the Red River Valley through this evening. At the surface, an elongated area of low pressure was analyzed on the 11Z chart over eastern WY, with Pacific cold front across eastern CO and northeastern/north-central NM. A dryline extended from the front over southeastern CO to eastern NM and the TX Trans-Pecos region, and should mix eastward to southwestern KS, eastern OK/TX Panhandles, and west-central/southwest TX by late afternoon. The cold front should overtake the dryline across the central Plains through the afternoon, then over OK overnight. A developing/synoptic warm-frontal zone was apparent from southeastern WY across central KS to southern MO, and should move northeastward to the lower/mid Missouri Valley through the period. The southern warm front -- demarcating the northern rim of a richly moist Gulf airmass from outflow-modified air, was drawn near the Red River from the Arklatex to the southeastern TX Panhandle. This boundary will shift northward through OK and much of KS today while becoming diffuse, and possibly catching up to the northern warm front. ...OK, Southern KS, Red River region... Thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid/late afternoon along and ahead of the dryline, near the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK line or 100W longitude into southern KS, then strengthen quickly to severe levels as they move eastward. Given the already very favorable parameter space by late afternoon, and increasingly so into early/mid evening, the concern is high for at least a few cyclic, tornadic supercells producing multiple significant tornadoes along potentially long paths. The threat for such tornadoes, as well as very large/destructive hail, will be maintained well into the late evening, and may even increase as hodographs further enlarge beneath the LLJ. Some uncertainty lingers as to how many such supercells will track across the outlook area, but given the unusually favorable environment and increasing confidence, a "high risk" outlook is warranted for areas between roughly the I-40 corridor in OK and the US-54/500 corridor in southern KS. Compared to farther north in KS, the environment will feature slightly stronger CINH, very rich low-level moisture (dewpoints commonly upper 60s to low 70s F), lack of frontal forcing (mainly dryline instead), and more orthogonal mean-wind/deep-shear vectors relative to the boundary. The 12Z FWD sounding sampled the richly moist and deep boundary layer that will be shifting northward across OK today, with mean mixing ratio of 15 g/kg. As low clouds erode in the moist sector from west-east, diabatic heating will boost MLCAPE into the 2500-4000 J/kg range over western/central OK and southern/ central KS, and contribute to greater potential for discrete supercells to develop and last a few hours before potential major upscale evolution to lines or clusters this evening. Hodographs will be favorable for tornadoes soon after initiation, and enlarge further ahead of the activity with time. Effective SRH commonly around 200-300 J/kg is expected late this afternoon and 300-500 J/kg after 00Z, amidst strengthening LLJ and deep shear (effective-shear magnitudes reaching 45-60 kt). Effective-layer STP in the 5-12 range may be realized for a few hours this evening across parts of OK and southern KS. Stronger MLCINH and weaker large-scale support will contribute to lesser storm coverage with southward extent over southern OK, though significant tornadoes and damaging hail may be possible from any that form. The corridor of favorable buoyancy will enlarge eastward this evening with continued moisture transport/advection, helping to maintain surface-based effective-inflow parcels well eastward into the Ozarks and vicinity to maintain eventual upscale growth, possibly linking with the southern part of QLCS activity sweeping across the Missouri Valley region. ...Central Plains... Thunderstorms should develop as early as midday to early afternoon over portions of western KS and southwestern NE, where CINH will be weakest, as the southern part of the front overtakes the dryline and impinges on a rapidly destabilizing/moistening sector to the east. Initial supercell mode is possible, with tornadoes (some strong), large to very large hail and damaging gusts all possible. With time this afternoon into evening, a more quasi-linear storm mode may evolve as the influence of frontal forcing increases, versus some component of flow across the boundary. As that occurs, tornadoes still will be possible, and the hail threat will transition to severe wind with eastward extent. Some significant (near 75 mph or higher) gusts will be possible as the momentum of stronger flow aloft gets transported to the surface, with increasing forced ascent along the leading edge of the complex. 60s F surface dewpoints will overspread a northward-narrowing sector across much of KS and NE today, contributing to peak/preconvective MLCAPE increasing into the 2000-3000 J/kg range, as deep shear strengthens, and hodographs extend, while maintaining favorable curvature. ...Northern Plains... From central NE northwestward, the prefrontal corridor of favorable moisture and diurnal destabilization will become quite narrow. Nonetheless, it should support scattered thunderstorms in northward- shifting plume, curving from the western Dakotas (and perhaps parts of extreme northeastern WY and southeastern MT) southeastward to central NE, and connecting to the northern part of the central Plains severe threat. With strong large-scale lift, cooling aloft, rapidly weakening MLCINH, and robust low-level mass response/shear expected ahead of the ejecting shortwave trough, confidence is growing that an arc of strong-severe thunderstorms will develop, offering large hail, severe gusts and at least marginal tornado potential. Even with 50s to low 60s F surface dewpoints and limited time for substantial diabatic heating, the net steepening of low/ middle level lapse rates should support peak MLCAPE near or slightly above 1000 J/kg. Deep shear may not be particularly intense in a regime of strongly difluent flow aloft, but still should be adequate for supercell potential given large lowest-km hodographs possible, and effective SRH in the 150-300 J/kg range. Severe potential should diminish after about 00Z. ...West-central/southwest TX... Isolated thunderstorms are possible in mid/late afternoon along/ ahead of the dryline over northwest to southwest TX. Although large-scale/mid-upper forcing will be negligible, any pockets of relatively persistent/maximized low-level lift associated with solenoidal processes on the dryline may persist enough to initiate convection. Mid/upper 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints and steep low/middle-level lapse rates will contribute to 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE amidst enough deep shear for supercells. A conditional significant-hail and marginal tornado threat exists with sustained supercell(s) -- if any can form. Coverage concerns preclude more than marginal categorical outlook at this time. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 05/06/2024 Read more View the full article