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KingOfTheMountains last won the day on May 11

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  1. Entirely a guess, but I would say that downsloping air off the mountains helps make that area hotter than others. Depending on the placement of a high, the clockwise flow around it should continually send fresh hot dry air off the mountain slopes in that direction. And that trend generally continues to the east through Elberton and into SC towards Abbeville and Greenwood being the hottest temperatures in their surrounding areas.
  2. The flooding is insane right now over there. Has to be near record levels.
  3. Looking back over radar data and it looks that maybe the tornado weakened slightly as it was hitting the most populated areas. With the light of day we'll know for sure.
  4. On the anniversary of Joplin, it looks like Missouri may have just seen yet another disaster... This time in Jefferson City, their state capitol. Hopefully, I wake up to initial reports being wrong but it looks bad right now. Debris was still seen on radar over 20 miles from the city.
  5. Crazy to see on today of all days. Thankful it veered left a bit cause for a while it was headed right for Joplin. Today/Tonight looks much worse than the high risk day. Lots of tornados out there tonight.
  6. Several factors were at play. Expansive cloud deck reduced instability between 0-3k feet. And strangely the capping that had been lost early in the day came back with a vengeance in the afternoon hours. Happy to see the worst was averted but no doubt the SPC is scratching their heads. They made it harder to issue high risks specifically to avoid days like today that were happening all too often because it harms their ability to garner public trust after several busts in a row.
  7. They've had some tornados and a few damaging, but ultimately the high risk is not going to verify. It's a good thing that the worst didn't transpire, but it does no favors in public perception of such high risk days in the future.
  8. At the very least this is going to end up being a very interesting case study with all these parameters being so high and the environment being highly conducive, yet ultimately being a busted forecast.
  9. They were stressing this being an overnight event as well so the downstream storms developing south of Lubbock could still be bad in that area.
  10. Ah, guessing the warm front probably eroded the cap then.
  11. Some of the soundings from inside the high risk area are just bonkers right now. Whenever one of these storms finally breaks the cap it is literally going to explode. Those storms east of Lubbock look like the ones that will kick things off.
  12. Seeing a population center like Oklahoma City inside 45% hatching is scary... And a big tip of the cap to the folks at the SPC in Norman as they diligently do their duty while being in the bullseye themselves.
  13. STP values were observed as high as 14-15 I believe. I don't know what they were modeled at prior to the event. HRRR is the main model showing the astronomically high numbers, as high as 41 so far today. Purely speculation on my part, but I have to wonder if STP is even designed to be modeled at such high resolutions. With the HRRR capable of modeling individual tornados, I wonder if that can skew the upper end of the data set because of highly localized off the charts numbers. STP is not a perfect science anyway because plenty of high STP events have been busts. But all of these had suspected limiting factors beforehand. None of this changes the reality of today's event though. Multiple parameters are maxed out over large regions, and much like in 2011 searching for a limiting factor is becoming increasingly difficult.
  14. I know Reed's one of the best out there but he really got caught in a bad spot on that one. He and his team are lucky to be okay there...
  15. When I was up there in the beginning of April I saw this being built but didn't know any details about it. Certainly looks like you'll get a nice view off of it. The one on Grandfather Mountain is really cool too.
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