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KingOfTheMountains last won the day on December 6

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  1. I gotta admit, after only getting snow in December the last 2 years, watching the potential for this month start to fade has got me nervous yet again. It's not the cold I'm worried about, we will always get shots of cold in the winter months. It's the mean troughs tendency to set up too far west going on 3 straight years, causing every single system to cut too far inland. I'm hopeful, but generally pessimistic lol.
  2. Yep just a cold rain. The cold air just doesn't look impressive at all there on the Euro.
  3. So actually looking a little closer that's not just 12-18 hours faster but keys in on a different wave entirely. It's now keying in on the initial shortwave just like the Euro was a couple days ago and has since went away from. It'll be interesting to see how they shake this out cause there is a ton of energy flying around and that tends to confuse models for longer than normal. IF, the initial shortwave can survive and not be sucked into the trough, then that dramatically increases the chances of an ice storm because it would arrive Thursday with the HP directly overtop not out to sea. But that's a big if, and a trend to watch.
  4. For now that's probably best treated as an outlier. It's like 12-18 hours faster than the previous run. Run to run differences that large shows the models just don't have a handle yet. I'd rather skip the ice anyway, so if that happens, I hope it trends colder.
  5. So basically December is purely hoping to thread the needle to get the timing right, which is about the norm down here anyway. January looks like a lot of cutters unless the SWA ridge ever gets beat down. February and March look like blockbuster months if they pan out as predicted, but they're also the furthest away so could be wrong. 🤞
  6. Yeah, last nights Euro exploded the low too but the track was a little better, gave some comma head snow that was the stuff of dreams for folks in the mountains. This one cuts west of the Apps. Which I hate to say it, but given the 500 mbar setup, is probably the most likely outcome without the high staying directly over top to stop it from climbing.
  7. Albeit the GFS was still close to something. Really nice cold in the days leading up to the system. If that HP could just slow down by 12-24 hours then it would work. Hence why the +AO and +NAO are culprits by just allowing that HP to just scream out to sea ahead of the gulf low development.
  8. If only we could buck this basically decade long trend of modeled - NAO never really materializing. +NAO and +AO will be one of the main reasons we probably don't see winter weather next week. Everything is moving too fast including those highs we need to keep the cold pressed down.
  9. But hey I don't wanna sound like a Debby downer. The models are showing a chaotic active weather period heading into the week of Christmas. So at this juncture our odds may be better than normal, but only in the way that 0.1% is greater than 0.01%.
  10. There's always a "chance". But frankly we've probably already beat the odds of a lifetime by having the one we did in 2010.
  11. Wow, euro really bombs that thing out lol. I certainly would prefer the more traditional route at getting snow but I gotta admit seeing that kind of dynamic cooling and rates inside a comma head band like that would be pretty cool. I guess just add that to the ever growing list of possibilities.
  12. I hope the southern jet will stay this active come January and February cause it has just been a constant barrage since early November. If so I don't see how don't score at least one big event this winter. If we can ever actually get a Greenland block and keep these cutoff lows streaming in it should be a real fun time.
  13. This is the optimal time frame for using ensembles to see if there is broad support for wintry weather or if we are just seeing noise in the main runs. I haven't looked at any yet but will definitely start tonight.
  14. Haven't seen the surface products yet but out to 168 the Euro looks good. Much more like 12z yesterday than last night's run.
  15. For sure. Looked like 3 straight possible threats to close the GFS run.
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