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KingOfTheMountains last won the day on January 15

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  1. They were no doubt having some extreme high ratios this morning in NC. Several areas in the higher elevations were seeing snow with surface temps in the single digits.
  2. I'm hopefully optimistic at seeing some snow at least falling tonight. The shortwave this morning has definitely over performed in WNC with several reports of around an inch. The HRRR looks good right now with the ULL having strong enough meso effects to override the dry airmass. Probably going to be lot's of virga around and a few flurries.
  3. Insane storm! Some of the numbers and footage coming out is almost unbelievable.
  4. Agreed. I've been lucky enough to have snow the past 2 winters but when it all comes in December it's hardly satisfying. I haven't had any measurable snow this year though, which if it ends that way would be in incredibly rare territory. I don't have the records to back this up, but it legitimately may have never happened. Greenville Spartanburg only has 1 winter since the late 1800s with absolutely no measurable snow and that was 2012 when I know I had snow here. In my lifetime I've never seen a complete shutout. That's the main reason that I'll be happy with a slightly below normal February and hope that climo comes through.
  5. This pattern always had its warts when it came to snow production. Mainly the fast flow exit off the Atlantic, and then to make it worse the trough is going to setup too far east. We will get our cold, and thankfully kiss the death ridge goodbye, but snow chances for now look bleak.
  6. In most ways I agree with you. I'm not expecting things to magically turn super cold in February. I expect a near average to possibly slightly below average month. But ultimately, we don't know yet what February holds. Which has mainly been the point that I've tried to drive home today. Focus on what we've got right in front of us right now instead of freaking out over what may or may not happen in the long range. Tonight we take a step down to cool, Sunday into Monday we turn briefly cold for a few days, late next week heights rise and we warm, followed by some degree of cool/cold into the last week of the month. I'm not worrying myself over what happens beyond that right now. Based on Northern hemisphere 500 mbar heights we are moving into probably our 4th sub-pattern of the winter. 1st was the November cold that lasted into the 1st week or so of December. Then we've had back to back warm sub-patterns here. (Same sensible result here but discreetly different at H5 as far as N hemisphere alignment goes). Now comes our 4th sub pattern where the H5 pattern that has dominated for the past month plus is clearly breaking down. We may see a 5th sub-pattern manifest as early as a week and a half to 2 weeks from now. Like I said earlier today, if February can be just around average for any length of time, I like my chances at snow here in the mountains. Because our climatology says that normal temps with a good track and HP will absolutely produce here in Jan/Feb.
  7. The GFS is still forecasting anywhere from 10 to 20 below normal region wide early next week. That is a strong cold shot, and basically the strength that has been advertised from the beginning, outside of maybe a handful of over aggressive runs. The change has been the duration. The ensembles, because of their nature, smoothed out the warmup. So initially we thought it stayed below normal through the reload. Now we know otherwise. The pattern we've been in the past two weeks does not remain. It is dying its long awaited death as we type this. A brief warmup within a cooler pattern does not a warm pattern make.
  8. That's our warmup. We'll get past it and cool down again. How much or for how long remains to be seen. Anybody pretending to know it will get very warm long term is just as ridiculous as anyone pretending it will definitely get cold long term. We generally know 3 things right now: 1. Decently strong brief cold shot, 2. Modest brief warmup(potentially a wedge to negate the effects for part of it), 3. A second cold shot of unknown strength or duration. Now we like to look at various indices, climate models, etc. and take guesses beyond that but that's all they are is guesses. My hope is for normal to slightly below normal over an extended period. I don't want arctic cold, because it most often screws us out of snow. Normal temps with a good track will give the Mtns snow, slightly below and the rest of N GA can get in on the fun. Edit: I should note that the sequence I noted starts the 19th into the 20th. We actually get our first big change tonight into tomorrow with a step down cool shot.
  9. Honestly, anyone on Amwx that's posting that is just reacting emotionally to the relaxation period between the cold shots. No, it wasn't modeled initially because the nature of ensembles is to smooth out details in the longer range. And a 24-48 hour warmup, primarily driven by the warm flow ahead of a cutting storm, is a fine detail. Frankly given experience, it's something they all should have seen coming regardless. We don't get 6 weeks of wall to wall arctic cold down here, it just isn't possible. Until either major ensemble starts to suggest that the 2nd cold shot isn't coming, then they are causing a panic for no reason. The cold isn't record breaking, but double digits below normal at peak is still nothing to scoff at here in the SE. As for your earlier question, like Steve said there is nothing wrong with watching models. It's more about how you frame your mindset while watching them, so that you don't get thrown around like a ragdoll as the pendulum swings wildly between runs. Just view each model run as one potential solution that as you go out further and further in time has lower odds of being the correct one.
  10. Definitely a fun period from all the looks we've got right now. Hopefully we can get inside 7 days and get some ensemble consolidation around the 28th time period. My word of advice is pace yourselves. This is going to be a long roller coaster ride with lots of highs and lows. Storms will come and go in the long range, and our moods will come and go with them if we aren't careful lol.
  11. I totally missed that the EPS control run at 12z gave us a big storm in the same exact time period as the 18z GFS did.
  12. Definitely a small amount of that down in the Athens area and the East Metro is. But the majority of the ice on that map falls in the storm before that one. I chose the 72 hour map to try to avoid that messing with the totals.
  13. Too early for anybody to know for sure. But what guidance we do have points to below normal temperatures for now. Lots of people out there freaking out over the EPS depiction of some minor warming after the first cold spell, but even it brings the cold right back in just a few days later. It can still go either way, but for now everything favors normal to below normal.
  14. And with temps crashing in the deformation band, verbatim Mtns could probably push 20 inches with that look. Just an absolutely amazing storm. Even if it's not real, I love seeing the extreme events our atmosphere is capable of producing.
  15. I got it. Tried to stop myself from even looking but couldn't resist lol *DEFINITELY NOT A FORECAST* I'm not even exaggerating when I say that was maybe the most beautiful storm I've ever seen modeled. Just absolute perfection. Shame it's so far out in time. But still positive signs at just how much potential exists going forward. This is exactly what I was talking about with hoping that maybe our 2nd cold shot can setup the trough in a better position.
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