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KingOfTheMountains last won the day on February 16

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  1. That slow meandering movement down there gives me Harvey flashbacks. Hopefully it stays offshore.
  2. Some lingering light drizzle still but as of now storm total is 3.72 inches for my location.
  3. Wsb going all in on the HRRR. Could be a big win or a big bust. We'll see how it goes I guess. I know personally at these lead times I'd put more stock in the NAM, never been too impressed with the HRRR outside of 6 hours or so.
  4. Yet again the HWRF appears to have flexed its muscle as our absolute best model for hurricane intensity. Over the last couple years that model has just blown me away with not just its accuracy at intensity but fine structural details of the storms.
  5. Wow... Euro landfalling Teddy in Maine now. Looked like a fish storm for sure but now New England and especially coastal Canada needs to keep a weary eye on Teddy.
  6. I'm not sure what Cranky's shtick is with always doing this but man is it annoying given how good he is at everything else.
  7. Most recent dropsonde in the NE eyewall is solidly in Cat. 5 territory. May have hit a mesovort.
  8. Wow... Eye just getting clearer and clearer in those last frames.
  9. He just gets this way sometimes. I love his analysis, but he has a history of downplaying like this with tropical systems, especially if it is going against his forecast. He predicted Laura would peak at a Cat. 2.
  10. GFS and CMC look like outliers right now with regards to completely dissipating the storm in Arkansas and Missouri. UKMET, Euro, ICON, HWRF, etc. all show baroclinic support for the storm to keep its structure well inland in the 990-1000 mb range. Disagreement still on the track though whether it's further north in Kentucky or closer to us in Tennessee.
  11. Better wording on the point I was alluding to last night. A track through Tennessee and across the smokies would likely give far Northern GA some fairly gusty winds, at least 40 mph plus I'd expect, maybe more in highest elevations. The Smokies could easily see 100 mph gusts if the Euro is right. Severe weather ingredients are in place too with it passing near peak heating hours with us on the right hand side of motion. GFS suite for now favors a track through Kentucky which should give us little impacts other than some rain.
  12. Man... Slight shift west and you've got Downtown Houston right in the worst of it.
  13. I didn't even notice initially but the pressure actually drops as it tracks through Tennessee. Looks like a quick extra-tropical transition followed by some re-intensification as the trough tries to go negative tilt.
  14. Looking at tonight's models and the Euro bringing that recurve closer and closer to our neck of the woods has gotten my attention. That track plus peak heating timing would concern me for some potential severe weather impacts along with just generally gusty winds and wet weather. I know it hasn't performed well thus far but it certainly bears watching in this 3-5 day timeframe.
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