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Everything posted by KingOfTheMountains

  1. Yep. Just nothing else to say about it. Models keep moving back and forth rather substantially with even the slightest changes in the big picture. So lets just get all the players on the field and see what happens. Gonna be a nowcasting event for most areas on the edges anyway. For what its worth I'm hoping the Fv3 GFS has had this thing right from the very beginning, as it has showed remarkable consistency for over a week now. Unfortunately, around these parts, in the end that can often just mean the model consistently wrong for over a week lol
  2. Whew...Tree damage would be catastrophic up here with over 1.5 inches of ZR and gusty winds
  3. Crazy... Peachtree gets more confident and GSP backs off big time. Concerning...
  4. Are these wind gusts from the Euro possibly correct? That is blizzard conditions at times for places that are snow, and would be a huge risk for major power outages region wide if true.
  5. Impressive run on Euro knowing the globals are usually at the least a few degrees too warm on the CAD.
  6. Really good look considering how much longer there's still to go especially if that ULL can pop nice.
  7. Goodness they need to adjust that color scale a bit, very hard to discern between the bottom 3 ptypes on the left and middle panel.
  8. No, us counties along the SC border are covered by NWS in Greenville-Spartunburg. So Rabun, Habersham, Stephens, etc.
  9. Looks like a backside event, those typically don’t work out case the backside drys out too fast with that kind of cold behind it. But can put a little bit out in NWGA and flurries for most. But that’s way too far ahead for even a little bit of speculation.
  10. Trends on the NAM certainly aren’t as encouraging as before for snow up here in Rabun, much more mid level warming. Hope these trends don’t hold or could be a sleet and ice fest.
  11. Unfortunately a very large portion of that is sleet or even rain in reality as temps especially aloft warm very quickly for some reason on that run of the Euro. Strange considering that at the start of the storm the upper levels actually came in much colder and much further south and then just went poof.
  12. Taking that run verbatim its definitely showing temps between 33-31 in the metro so there would likely be pockets of freezing rain, better chances the further north and east you go. It's important now to just wait and see if the model keeps showing this as we get closer cause things can easily trend back the other way.
  13. This is the last frame on tonights NAM. Snow/Sleet in the far NE and then lots of heavy crippling ice further south. In places like Athens it has already shown probably close to an inch of liquid with temps below freezing.
  14. NAM holds serve in putting a lot more of North GA on notice. If it continues to show this inside 48 hrs I'd be worried about a potentially devastating ice storm for some.
  15. The NAM definitely peaks my interest, but am trying to keep my expectations down until I see it on the NAM inside 48-60 hours. As much as I hate to see areas south of me like Hall, and Gwinnett counties get hit hard with ice, that is a classic look for how winter storms often work out around here. I usually hold the rule of thumb that if Hall county is supposed to get a big ice storm, then here in Rabun we will typically stay mainly snow throughout with a little bit of sleet and zr mixing in at the height of the warm air advection. I wish we could all score a big hit, but selfishly with these ridiculous qpf totals I’m hoping for this scenario if not colder as it could deliver one of the biggest snows in my lifetime. Good luck everyone, stay safe.
  16. EPS is extremely impressive for NE corner. Probabilities of 6 inch plus nearing 90% and even 1 foot plus nearing 60% in Rabun County, and even a ridiculous 18 inch plus between 20-30%. Obviously some of this is going to be lost to mixing but impressive nonetheless.
  17. I lost your page in facebooks algorithms apparently since last winter cause I hadn’t seen any of your posts, but needless to say this storm got me searching for you. Anyway living in Rabun County, this one is starting to excite me as not only have the OPs upped totals but so to have the ensembles. Euro is to near 80% for over 6 inches now! I know we may see some sleet mix in but hoping that the CAD is under modeled enough to that we won’t see any freezing rain here. Anyway glad to have found your page again and look forward to following along with tracking this one.
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