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KingOfTheMountains

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Everything posted by KingOfTheMountains

  1. Been going steady for about 30 minutes now. Accumulating well. 29 degrees dew point 22. Was hoping it would wet bulb down a degree or so, but for now temp is still rising.
  2. Starting to see some Mping reports pop up on radar scope in NW GA so it looks like we are officially underway.
  3. Looks to be about an hour ahead of last night's modeling right now. Not surprising, seems most of our events always arrive just a bit earlier than anticipated.
  4. Wondered why they hadn't at least tried to mesh up their forecasts. Big improvements from GSP, many storms they've held out until the event is already halfway over to change their forecast lol.
  5. In Tiger. It is dropping again now. Here's the wind and temp data. During each of those spikes in wind speed the temp rose or at least struggled to fall. Capped at 32.1 before the winds died and it started back down again. I looked at other stations around most of the county on weather underground and they all had that same spiking temp after 2 AM. Was worried the winds wouldn't let up and we would start the day with borderline temps. But I think they may have finally relented, but then of course I thought that the first time they stopped lol.
  6. Welp... Winds are killing us in Rabun right now. They died down finally between midnight and 2 and the temp fell to 27. They cranked back up and the mixing has got us all the way back up the 32. Looking around at other stations and this doesn't seem to be happening anywhere else really. Officially worried now...
  7. GSP finally changed their forecast for Rabun county. Now I can sleep peacefully lol
  8. I’d say bet on 1.5 - 2 and be thrilled if you hit the over. And for whatever its worth, I think your chances on doing just that are pretty good.
  9. You know, I try not to be too critical of the NWS because they are the experts and they have the thankless job of trying to predict the future. But if they are right about this forecast, then I'm giving up on models forever because there isn't a single one showing anything like this. NWS Atlanta has the next county over staying all snow through 4pm then possibly mixing with rain. I just don't get how they can be so far apart...
  10. Absolutely. Could be in one of the very best spots. Should get under way around 9ish tomorrow morning.
  11. It'll be close for your area. Could get some, might not. It's gonna depend on temps and how quickly precip blossoms. No way to know for sure, gonna come down to now-casting.
  12. I think the 18z run on the NAM was just overdone. I said then that it having 3/4 inch liquid showing up was a bit suspect. If you compare 0z to 12z though it's still better basically everywhere except the metro area.
  13. Being clear overnight is actually a good thing as it allows for ample radiational cooling. Clouds moving in prior to sunset over top of a frost is a good signal that it's about to snow. Based on trends I've seen today I think somewhere around Dawson, Pickens, Lumpkin, Hall counties could bullseye with this one and pick up 3-4 inches easy. There's an old saying that to get the best snow you've got to be able to smell the rain. Basically saying that being far enough south to get in the heaviest moisture, but just far enough north to stay cold enough for snow.
  14. Got caught in a deadzone this evening so I've been MIA for a bit lol. But based on what I'm seeing they should have a good shot at at least an inch maybe a couple. Of course being that far west there is the risk that precip breaks out a little late for them, but trends today have made that seem less likely.
  15. 19 out of 20 members now 2+ at Blairsville.
  16. GEFS up again. 5th run in a row with an increase.
  17. Yeah that’s interesting. Not a single short term model, even the HRRR has that precip there. Tough to read into at this point. Depends if it is actually associated with our system or still with the exiting ULL. If it is with our system it could potentially mean an earlier onset.
  18. I'm struggling to believe that temps get as warm as currently forecast if this actually moves in in the morning hours in the mountains. Getting into the 20s overnight, with 850's at like - 6 celcius, if it starts snowing I don't see how that doesn't drive that cold air down to the ground and lock it in around 32-34.
  19. Moving into the state tomorrow morning around 7-8 AM then moving through west to east into the afternoon hours.
  20. NAM 3km is juicy for all of N GA. 3/4 of an inch liquid equivalent showing up in places. I'd suspect that's over done but it'd be fun if it wasn't lol.
  21. Safe to say that GSP and Atlanta disagree a bit about NE GA mtns for tomorrow. With temps just above the surface below freezing this means winter precip will be involved, and even though QPF is expected to be low, it will be enough with an approximate 7.5:1 snow-water ratio for minor snow accumulations to occur with a rain/snow mix across North Georgia. Only about a tenth to a half inch of snow accumulations outside the mountainous regions are expected but with rains and warm ground temps, if anything falls it probably won`t stick around long. In mountainous regions up north this could be a different story. Embedded in colder temps, areas of NW Georgia could see 1-2 inches, with higher elevations along the spine and mountaintops of the GA Blue Ridge mountains could see up to 4 inches in some isolated locations. This has prompted a Winter Weather Advisory for the majority of Northern GA.
  22. I have no doubt Pickens will be. Earlier arrival of precip should help with temps over there as well.
  23. I think it's on the low end for all of the Georgia mountain counties. Wide spread support for 1-3 inches right now and boundary temps modeled to stay below or right around freezing. 12z GEFS had 15 members with 2+ for Blairsville, a few with around 3, and none with below 1.5
  24. You and me both lol. Ready to see them finally commit to this being a real thing.
  25. I saw that! The trends since this time yesterday have pushed the snow a whole lot further south and west. I think it's just picking up on how cold the upper levels are going to be, that even with a warm boundary layer that far south it could still be mostly or all snow. Now accumulations could be tough, definitely no travel concerns in the metro.
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