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2023 SCCA Solo National Championship Weather - 08/24/23


NorthGeorgiaWX

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Good afternoon!

Instead of using a weather picture as the featured phot on the post, I'd thought I'd dig back through my pictures from past Nationals and highlight a few that I thought were cool. Try to guess the year, and you'll have to tell me who's car it is. 🙂

I'm still focused on the ProSolo for the next day or two, but also watching the 4th-8th for anything major. If you are driving in the ProSolo and dreading the heat in Lincoln, then things may be looking up, at least for part of the event.

Here's a look at the high temperatures from the national Blend of Models, and it covers the period from Wednesday, August 30th to Sunday September 3rd. This is as far out as the model goes at the moment, so we'll see where it takes us as we move closer to the event.  Here is the NWS description for this particular model.

Quote

The National Blend of Models (NBM) is a nationally consistent and skillful suite of calibrated forecast guidance based on a blend of both NWS and non-NWS numerical weather prediction model data and post-processed model guidance.

It's basically what the name implies, it's a blend of models, and that doesn't make it right, wrong, or a forecast. But it is similar to an ensemble since it blends many different scenarios into one. With all of that being said, these are the maps. Notice that there are no triple digit temperatures on the maps. The highs would be low 90's to start and dropping back down to the freezing mid to upper 80's by the 3rd. Ok, not really freezing. 🙂 Timing may also vary.

nbm-conus-nebraska-t2m_f_max_last24-3353600.thumb.png.63b5ef3646974a06b5b8f6d1f1c75232.png

nbm-conus-nebraska-t2m_f_max_last24-3440000.thumb.png.e1d27b5beb9e654785cd1ffc2da23d5d.png

nbm-conus-nebraska-t2m_f_max_last24-3526400.thumb.png.c3f8ab5bf393b72e3622aaf195f5e9ff.png

nbm-conus-nebraska-t2m_f_max_last24-3612800.thumb.png.a19067cac156176bf93f60a50737d8d7.png

nbm-conus-nebraska-t2m_f_max_last24-3699200.thumb.png.1222f05b9f9955ccac37454446bfcf15.png

 

The ensembles are still showing 5-7 degrees above normal for that time period, so we're not out of the fire just yet. 

Here's a look at the temp anomalies from the Euro, Canadian, and GFS ensembles. The GFS is the outlier and considerably warmer than these two. These are 5 day average anomalies centered on the dates of Aug 30 through the end of the day on September 3.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-central-t2m_f_anom_5day-3785600.thumb.png.9f70f163eda027ce4bf64c864c9519e8.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-central-t2m_f_anom_5day-3785600.thumb.png.8ef966a3b8c85a8aba51b63247801977.png

cmc-ensemble-all-avg-central-t2m_f_anom_5day-3785600.thumb.png.57f84c8f62c3ed1434f9da13408a4e25.png

 

Right now it looks like a slight chance of a shower each day through the 3rd, but the probability and confidence level is low on that.  No matter how you slice it, Lincoln is either in, or close to the rain "hole". These are 7 day totals from the ensembles, ending the night of the 3rd.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-central-precip_168hr_inch-3785600.thumb.png.90e24e8b859a7b4f5566dfba6520433b.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-central-precip_168hr_inch-3785600.thumb.png.faf0e16183fc43307cdd540204765fd0.pngcmc-ensemble-all-avg-central-precip_168hr_inch-3785600.thumb.png.5f4a031030044949519239201b2c42a2.png

 

More tomorrow!

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