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2023 SCCA Solo National Championship Weather - 08/25/23


NorthGeorgiaWX

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Good afternoon!

Well, 7 days until the ProSolo starts, so we will now be able to give you a little better idea what to expect with the weather.

I hope I didn't get too many hopes up about cooler weather, because  I think we can forget about any hope of that happening. The core of the high pressure and the heat, is going to be centered almost directly over Nebraska. Let's just call it the bullseye like it is. Here are the three major global deterministic models, the GFS, Euro, and Canadian. All the images show a 5 day average temperature anomaly from August 30 to September 4. Notice that the GFS is the hottest of the three, and I suspect it's a little overdone.

gfs-deterministic-conus-t2m_f_anom_5day-3785600.thumb.png.36ab66559a4c1b2d17a65dd0608e1ffe.png

ecmwf-deterministic-conus-t2m_f_anom_5day-3785600.thumb.png.de7a907fef0c7a60781edc12ba4d6306.png

gem-all-conus-t2m_f_anom_5day-3785600.thumb.png.2be3caf55ee0b43de2406b9b6fc00040.png

 

Looking at a meteogram from each of the three models, we see highs like this. The Euro falls in the middle, so I'd lean on that one for now. 

gfs-deterministic-KLNK-daily_tmin_tmax-2964800.thumb.png.04486b9af9801d0a503fbd8b2ac80879.png

ecmwf-deterministic-KLNK-daily_tmin_tmax-2921600.thumb.png.edd126946fe3b8cd4049171a77e3ad84.png

gem-all-KLNK-daily_tmin_tmax-2964800.thumb.png.759f7c0f73d4f1ef0e401cf823e0589d.png

Looking at the Euro max temps, this is Thursday, August 31. The date is in the top right corner of the image. The time doesn't matter since the images show a daily max.

ecmwf-deterministic-nebraska-t2m_f_max_last24-3483200.thumb.png.7bdd2e632cc80e48305bb5a45a7838ef.png

 

ecmwf-deterministic-nebraska-t2m_f_max_last24-3591200.thumb.png.0ed495e06f99dfd608f8c05c3aa98408.png

 

ecmwf-deterministic-nebraska-t2m_f_max_last24-3677600.thumb.png.399f15fedb202f6c505167e178d731e9.png

 

ecmwf-deterministic-nebraska-t2m_f_max_last24-3764000.thumb.png.fd9d525ca30e029ba3bddfd69f138cd7.png

 

If you're looking for rain to cool things off, you'll have to look really long and hard. In these multi run images, you can see the trends from the oldest model run at the top of the image, to the newest at the bottom. If anything, the chance for rain is going down.

gfs-deterministic-KLNK-precip_6hr_multirun-2964800.thumb.png.74ebe2b14da8fb582bd6043921bf1b5f.png

ecmwf-deterministic-KLNK-precip_6hr_multirun-2921600.thumb.png.5aa08dca8a76da75177a8946e9bdec86.png

gem-all-KLNK-precip_6hr_multirun-2964800.thumb.png.366551f3c5e34dce1602b6ed32f13926.png

 

Looking past the 3rd, it's not looking any better. These are 10 day average temp anomalies. This particular image is from the GFS ensemble and runs from Sunday, August 27 through Wednesday, September 6. I'll get an update later, for some reason it's stuck at September 6.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-conus-t2m_f_anom_10day-4023200.thumb.png.2155fef5ca955b2c407e8eb35f007d1d.png

 

The Euro is from Tuesday the 29th to Friday the 8th.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-t2m_f_anom_10day-4174400.thumb.png.4fc5c4b0297fce9b236f8a8dc365bb63.png

 

And the Canadian is from  Wednesday, the 30th to Friday night on the 9th. Either way, all are above normal, and all show the greatest concentration of heat right over Nebraska. You're welcome. 🙂 

cmc-ensemble-all-avg-conus-t2m_f_anom_10day-4217600.thumb.png.6ba758210b13c93cc396c964b3b8942d.png

 

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