Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted October 24, 2023 Administrators Share Posted October 24, 2023 MD 2258 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO Mesoscale Discussion 2258 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 Areas affected...southwest New Mexico Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 241700Z - 241900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms may develop over the next few hours across southeast New Mexico. Local small hail and gusty winds may accompany the strongest storms. The overall severe threat appears low, and a watch is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development continues near the center of a mid-/upper-level shortwave trough currently propagating eastward through southern Arizona, New Mexico, and northwestern Mexico. Colder temperatures aloft and diurnal heating are supporting updraft development along the higher terrain, with strong south-southwesterly flow driving subsequent storm motion northeastward. Mesoanalysis suggests eroding inhibition and gradually increasing MLCAPE across the area, perhaps up to around 500 J/kg currently. MESH values around 1 inch have been observed recently with the strongest cores. Relatively moist low levels, gradually steepening lapse rates, and strengthening 0-6-km shear should support this activity continuing through the early afternoon. Localized small hail up to 1-1.5 inches and gusty winds should be the primary concerns across the area for the next few hours. A watch is not anticipated for this activity, but upscale growth and environmental evolution will continue to be monitored for possible downstream hazards later this afternoon. ..Flournoy/Guyer.. 10/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 31920896 32510892 32980868 33280807 33410718 33430631 33370603 33200580 32870560 32480566 31990605 31880657 31860727 31870829 31390829 31410882 31920896 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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