Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted October 24, 2023 Administrators Share Posted October 24, 2023 MD 2257 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN IA...SOUTHERN MN...AND WI Mesoscale Discussion 2257 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 Areas affected...Portions of far northern IA...southern MN...and WI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 241506Z - 241730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Mainly elevated thunderstorms should pose an isolated hail threat over the next few hours. Watch issuance is unlikely this morning. DISCUSSION...Multiple thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from parts of far southwestern MN into WI. This convection is largely related to ascent associated with a west-southwesterly low-level jet, and modest divergence attendant to an upper-level jet extending across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. A surface front also extends from far northern IA/southern MN into WI. These thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain slightly elevated to the cool side of the surface front. Still, steep mid-level lapse rates noted on the 12Z MPX sounding (around 7.7 C/km in the 700-500 mb layer) are supporting MUCAPE of 1000-1700 J/kg along/north of the front. Modest low-level west-southwesterlies quickly strengthen with height through mid/upper levels based on recent VWPs from area radars. Corresponding 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear and elongated, nearly straight hodographs above 3 km AGL should support updraft organization, including the potential for a supercell or two. Isolated severe hail generally up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter will be possible with the more robust cores as this activity spreads east-northeastward over the next couple of hours. The potential for strong/gusty winds is less clear, as poor low-level lapse rates and generally elevated convection may tend to limit downdrafts from reaching the surface. ..Gleason/Guyer.. 10/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... LAT...LON 43429120 43269323 43229490 43319572 43679587 44269496 44689348 44959187 45119098 45319012 45458970 45438879 45078763 44838728 44358751 44268828 44148935 43429120 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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