Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted October 25, 2023 Administrators Share Posted October 25, 2023 MD 2260 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS Mesoscale Discussion 2260 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0509 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 Areas affected...southeastern New Mexico and southwestern Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 242209Z - 250045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms posing a risk for marginally severe hail and locally strong wind gusts will gradually spread eastward off the mountains, into and through the adjacent plains through 6-8 PM MDT. DISCUSSION...Downstream of large-scale mid-level troughing slowly turning east of the Baja Peninsula, the initiation of scattered thunderstorms is now well underway along the eastern slopes of the Sacramento, Guadalupe and Davis Mountains vicinity. This is being supported by peak boundary-layer destabilization aided by daytime heating, in the presence of relatively steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates and at least modest boundary-layer moisture. Low-level wind fields are generally weak, and the convective-layer appears largely below a belt of 80-90 kt high level southwesterly flow (near and above the 300-250 mb) now crossing southwest Texas through the Texas South Plains. However deep-layer shear is probably still sufficient to support a couple of supercell storms into early this evening. There is at least some signal in the various model output that as activity propagates off the higher terrain, it may eventually become focused along a consolidating outflow boundary or weak cold front advancing toward the New Mexico/Texas border vicinity by late evening. However, it is not clear that this will pose a risk for more than localized gusts which may remain mostly below severe limits. ..Kerr/Hart.. 10/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 33170480 33950461 34060400 33850340 33460315 31620268 31110259 31030330 31400393 32290453 33170480 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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