SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 PM CST Wed Dec 06 2023

Valid 081200Z - 141200Z

A strong mid-level jet streak will cross nrthern California tomorrow
and carve out a large trough across the southern Plains on Friday.
This trough will become neutrally tilted across the eastern CONUS
before eventually becoming negatively tilted across the Northeast.
In the wake of this mid-level trough, a strong cold front will bring
a continental polar airmass across much of the United States. 

...Day 3/Fri Southwest into Far West Texas...
Dry and windy conditions are expected across southern New Mexico and
Far West Texas on Friday. A weak lee cyclone may lead to some
tightening pressure gradient. However, strong winds will primarily
be driven by a moderate to strong mid-level jet overspreading a
deeply mixed airmass with stronger winds reaching the surface. In
addition, 10 to 15F above normal temperatures will lead to relative
humidity in the teens and further support some fire weather threat.
ERC values remain near seasonable normals, but dormant, fine fuels
continue to cure and may support some fire spread and an increase in
initial attack. 

Some dry and breezy conditions are also possible on Day4/Sat in
portions of the TX/OK Panhandle and vicinity. However, these
conditions are expected in the post-frontal airmass where
temperatures will be cool and therefore, fire weather concerns
should be reduced. 

A weak mid-level shortwave trough embedded in the northwesterly flow
across the Central Rockies may result in some weak cyclogenesis on
Sunday across the central Plains. This may cause some dry and breezy
conditions across the southern High Plains. However, confidence in
stronger wind speeds is not high enough to necessitate probabilities
at this time.

..Bentley.. 12/06/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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