SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0939 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2023

Valid 081700Z - 091200Z

The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments
needed to reflect recent observations and trends in hi-res guidance.
Across southwest TX, elevated to locally critical fire weather
conditions remain likely by early afternoon. The 12 UTC Midland, TX
sounding sampled a very dry residual boundary layer atop a shallow
nocturnal inversion. Given clear skies across the region, strong
diurnal insolation will likely result in a rapid decrease in RH
accompanied by strengthening westerly winds by around 18 UTC. 15-25
mph winds with RH in the low teens remains likely, but only modestly
dry fuels (ERCs near/below the 50th percentile) should limit a more
robust fire weather threat. 

Along the southern CA coast, an offshore wind regime has become
established with a few locations within the coastal mountains
reporting wind gusts upwards of 30-40 mph. Winds are expected to
gradually strengthen and become more widespread through tonight as
the offshore pressure gradient strengthens through Saturday morning.
Downslope warming/drying should result in a few areas of reduced RH
into the teens, but fire weather conditions are generally expected
to remain fairly localized for today and much of tonight. Fire
weather concerns will increase beginning around 12 UTC Saturday as
the offshore pressure gradient approaches peak intensity.

..Moore.. 12/08/2023

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023/

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will be in the process of intensifying and
digging southeastward today. A surface low will deepen in western
Oklahoma during the morning and into the afternoon. Ahead of a cold
front, westerly surface winds will intensify from the South Plains
into the Trans Pecos. Winds of 15-20 mph (locally to 25 mph) and RH
of 15-20% will develop in this downslope regime. Given  at least
marginally dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire weather is
possible.

Behind the upper trough, surface high pressure will increase within
the Great Basin. Offshore flow will increase across southern
California. Winds will be on the increase late tonight into Saturday
morning. It is not certain how low RH will fall, but a couple hours
of locally elevated fire weather are possible late tonight.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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