SPC MD 2321

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

MD 2321 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 719... FOR PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN/EASTERN AL...AND WESTERN GA

Mesoscale Discussion 2321
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Areas affected...Portions of the FL Panhandle...southern/eastern
AL...and western GA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 719...

Valid 101000Z - 101130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 719 continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat, including the potential for a
couple of tornadoes, continues early this morning.

DISCUSSION...Around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE exists in a narrow
corridor ahead of ongoing convection and a southeastward-moving cold
front across parts of the western FL Panhandle, southern/eastern AL,
and western GA. Even with some stability and near-neutral
boundary-layer lapse rates noted in RAP forecast soundings across
this region, sufficient low-level moisture still likely exists to
support surface-based convection. Deep-layer shear remains more than
adequate for organized updrafts, with enhanced southwesterly
mid-level flow associated with an upper trough aiding around 40-55
kt of effective bulk shear. A mix of short, bowing line segments and
occasional supercell structures has been observed over the past
couple of hours. Current expectations are for this mixed convective
mode to continue for a few more hours early this morning as this
activity spreads generally east-northeastward. 150-200 m2/s2 of
0-1-km SRH is still present along/ahead of this convection per
latest VWPs from KEVX/KEOX. Accordingly, any supercell that can be
sustained remains capable of producing a tornado. Isolated damaging
winds may also occur with the more linear convection along/near the
cold front.

..Gleason.. 12/10/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   30358685 31258694 32628565 33058427 30938482 29708529
            29978567 30268631 30358685 

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