Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 10, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 10, 2023 Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential appears likely to remain negligible through D6. A reinforcing surface anticyclone will become anchored from the OH Valley to the central/southern Appalachians from mid to late week. This will aid in maintaining easterly low-level flow across much of the Gulf Basin and FL Peninsula. The gradual airmass modification in these regions should foster potential for increasing baroclinicity by next weekend as a continental polar airmass remains entrenched farther inland over the Southeast. The majority of 00Z ECMWF ensemble and GEFS members have finally caught up with several of the recent deterministic ECMWF, GFS, and CMC runs which have suggested potential for Gulf to South Atlantic Coast cyclogenesis in the D7-9 time frame. This should occur in response to an upper low over the Southwest getting kicked east towards the Gulf Coast around next weekend. However, run-to-run continuity in terms of timing and degree of amplification with this wave are quite poor, likely in relation to the degree of northern stream phasing/influence as discussed in WPC's PMDEPD. Despite GEFS-based ML-probabilistic guidance indicating a nil severe threat, an area-of-interest for increasing severe potential next weekend includes the eastern Gulf to South Atlantic Coast. Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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