Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 10, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 10, 2023 MD 2324 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EXTREME SOUTH GA INTO NORTH FL Mesoscale Discussion 2324 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0940 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Areas affected...Extreme south GA into north FL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 101540Z - 101745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Some threat for a brief tornado and/or locally damaging wind may persist through late morning, with an increasing threat possible across parts of the northern Florida Peninsula by early afternoon. DISCUSSION...A QLCS is moving across south GA into the eastern FL Panhandle this morning, with a possible brief tornado recently noted near the FL/GA border, near where a supercell was earlier absorbed into the line. In the short term, this QLCS will be moving eastward into an increasingly stable low-level environment, and some weakening appears likely. However, relatively favorable low-level and deep-layer shear (as noted on the 12Z TLH sounding and recent VWPs from KVAX) amid seasonably rich low-level moisture may continue to support a threat for a brief tornado and/or locally damaging wind until/unless a more definitive weakening trend commences. Some heating has been noted across northern portions of the FL Peninsula, and somewhat more substantial destabilization is possible by early afternoon in this area. Also, some increase in low-level flow is possible with time, due to the increasing influence of an approaching mid/upper-level shortwave trough currently near the upper TX coast. This could result in some rejuvenation of the QLCS near the FL coastal bend into the northwest peninsula, with a continued threat of a brief tornado or two and locally damaging wind. The need for a new watch this morning remains uncertain, due to the anticipated short-term weakening trend, but watch issuance will be possible by early afternoon into parts of the northern FL Panhandle, depending on short-term convective and destabilization trends. ..Dean/Guyer.. 12/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 31008392 30968348 30948313 30288268 29888260 29458273 29298289 29288304 29388357 29548389 29618419 29688467 29708478 30188463 31008392 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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