SPC Dec 13, 2023 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...NM and West TX...
A shortwave trough will steadily move east across NM into northwest
TX by early Friday. A persistent low-level warm theta-e advection
regime in conjunction with mid-level DCVA/height falls ahead of the
trough will support a nearly continuous swath of elevated convection
during the period. This will gradually shift eastward from east NM
Thursday morning towards west-central TX early Friday. Elevated
buoyancy will remain meager and guidance is consistent that the
plume of steep mid-level lapse rates attendant to the trough on D1
will shrink in spatial extent and slowly lose amplitude through the
period. Still, a few surface-based thunderstorms will be possible
during the afternoon beneath the mid-level cold core centered on
central NM. Severe hail potential appears negligible. 

...Far South FL and Deep South TX...
A predominately easterly low-level flow regime over the Gulf and
western Atlantic will result in a plume of mid to upper 60s surface
dew points across the southeast Gulf and Caribbean shifting west to
the west-central and south Gulf. On the northern periphery of this
plume across far south portions of FL/TX, instability will be
marginal for charge separation owing to weak mid to upper-level
lapse rates. The bulk of convective development should remain low
topped as isolated to scattered showers. But a few updrafts might
sufficiently deepen, mainly during the afternoon, for a
low-probability thunder threat.

..Grams.. 12/13/2023

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