Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 13, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 13, 2023 SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms will be possible through tonight from the Four Corners into west Texas, and across parts of south Florida. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A closed midlevel low will move slowly eastward over northern AZ toward NM by Thursday morning. Surface ridging and an associated cool air mass will be maintained across most of the central and eastern CONUS, beneath confluent midlevel flow. This low-level flow regime will limit substantial boundary-layer moisture to south FL, where a few thunderstorms will be possible along the convergence zone coincident with the northwest edge of the 68-72 F dewpoints across the Keys and southeast FL. Farther west, a modifying air mass with dewpoints in the low-mid 60s will persist across Deep South TX, though poor lapse rates aloft suggest that convection will remain too shallow for charge separation and lighting production. Steepening midlevel lapse rates and ascent immediately east of the midlevel low could support isolated thunderstorms over the higher terrain of northeast AZ and western NM this evening into tonight. A few lightning flashes with elevated convection will also be possible farther east in the persistent warm advection zone with weak buoyancy over west TX and the TX Panhandle. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 12/13/2023 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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