Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 13, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 13, 2023 Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... An area-of-interest for at least low probability tornado and damaging wind potential exists late D4 to early D6 over the eastern Gulf to South Atlantic States. Confidence remains too low to warrant a 15 percent severe probability highlight for a specific day and mesoscale-focused area. 00Z deterministic guidance trends support gradually increasing agreement over the past several days with pronounced cyclogenesis in the eastern Gulf to on/off the South Atlantic Coast during D4-6. Multiple synoptic-scale interactions are apparent. First, phasing of northern and southern-stream shortwave troughs should continue from D3 over the central states. Second, a separate convection-induced shortwave impulse appears likely to be generated over eastern Gulf within the favorable right-rear quadrant of an intensifying upper jet in the East. The initial warm-core nature of this leading impulse suggests poor mid-level lapse rates will require sufficient surface-based instability coincident with strengthening low-level wind fields across the FL Peninsula late Saturday into Sunday. 00Z ECMWF ensemble and GEFS members continue to indicate vast spread in the degree of cyclone amplification, as well as substantial spatial and temporal variation of cyclone evolution. This renders low confidence in the timing/location of a conditionally favorable warm-sector environment outside of central/south FL. Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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