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SPC Dec 17, 2023 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Image
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0321 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a low-amplitude
upper pattern, free of any larger disturbances, and a dry
continental air mass will be in place over the CONUS early
D4/Wednesday. Some modification of the portion of this air mass over
the Plains will begin on D4/Wednesday, ahead of a low-amplitude
shortwave expected to gradually move across the Southwest. This
shortwave will likely interact with the returning low-level moisture
late D5/Thursday and early D6/Friday, but buoyancy and shear will be
modest, limiting the severe potential.

This shortwave will likely continue eastward into the Lower/Mid MS
Valley on D6/Friday. At the same time, upper low off the southern CA
coast is expected to start progressing more eastward, potentially
moving across southern CA on D6/Friday and into northern
Mexico/Southwest on D7/Saturday. Modest low-level moisture is
forecast to be in place over the southern Plains ahead of this wave,
but warm mid-level temperatures and resultant poor lapse rates
should keep the severe potential low.

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