SPC Dec 17, 2023 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0646 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be possible
through tonight across the coastal Carolinas.

...Coastal Carolinas through tonight...
A deepening cyclone will progress from north FL this morning to
eastern NC by 09-12z Monday, in response to gradual phasing of Gulf
of Mexico shortwave troughs with a larger-scale trough over the
eastern CONUS.  Midlevel drying with the passage of a lead shortwave
trough and diminished ascent have acted to limit deep convection
across FL overnight.  Any lingering severe threat will end across
southeast FL by mid-late morning as drying occurs from the west and
vertical shear continues to weaken.  The cyclone will skirt the GA
coast during the day and then approach SC this afternoon and NC
tonight.  A narrow portion of the surface warm sector could spread
far enough inland to support some threat for near-surface-based
convection across the coastal Carolinas, where vertical shear will
be strong.  However, poor lapse rates aloft will tend to limit
buoyancy in the zone of stronger forcing for ascent where vertical
shear will be strongest, and cool shelf waters will likely maintain
a shallow stable layer near the coast.  Will maintain the outlook
area given the conditional potential for isolated damaging gusts and
a tornado or two, but it is not clear how much of the potential will
be realized inland.

...Northern CA coast...
To the east of a closed low over the eastern Pacific, isolated
lightning flashes will be possible with embedded/elevated
convection.

..Thompson/Broyles.. 12/17/2023

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