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SPC Dec 17, 2023 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook


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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
An upper cyclone will likely be centered over PA early Tuesday
morning, accompanied by cold mid-level temperatures and strong
mid-level flow (i.e. 90-100 kt at 500 mb) throughout its eastern
periphery. This system is forecast to gradually move eastward
through the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic during the period, with
largely zonal flow in its wake across the CONUS. High surface
pressure associated with dry continental airmass will dominant the
sensible weather east of the Rockies, limiting low-level moisture
and precluding thunderstorm development.

An upper low is expected to drift southward off the West Coast,
ending the period centered well off the central CA Coast. A
low-amplitude shortwave trough moving through the base of this upper
low may move across southern CA. However, thermodynamic conditions
in the vicinity of this shortwave are not conducive to lightning
production.

..Mosier.. 12/17/2023

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