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SPC Dec 17, 2023 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook


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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1028 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023

Valid 171630Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible
through tonight across the coastal Carolinas.

...Discussion...
Recent surface analysis shows a low just off the northeastern
Florida/southeastern Georgia coast at this time, which is progged to
steadily deepen while shifting north-northeastward through tonight. 
At this time, what appears to be the most likely track for the low
will be to remain just off the South Carolina coast through the
daytime hours, and then possibly move just inland across coastal
North Carolina or the Outer Banks overnight.  

North of the low track, widespread/steady precipitation is ongoing,
which should reinforce a persistent cool/stable boundary layer
inland through the daytime hours.  With that said, the favorably
strong/veering wind field observed within the northeast quadrant of
the low continues to support occasionally rotating cells just
offshore.  This will continue, along with gradually increasing
potential that a couple of these cells will begin moving inland
across South Carolina coastal counties northeast of Charleston. 
While any storms would become increasingly elevated along their
inland advance, storms may remain rooted near enough to the surface
across immediate coastal counties of northeastern South Carolina --
and then later over eastern North Carolina and in particular the
Outer Banks -- to yield risk for a couple of tornadoes, and possibly
locally damaging wind gusts.  As such, will maintain current
delineation of the SLGT risk area just inland across South Carolina
for today, and then across eastern North Carolina and the Outer
Banks area for this evening and overnight.

..Goss/Thornton.. 12/17/2023

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