Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 17, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 17, 2023 SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA AND THE OUTER BANKS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible through tonight across coastal North Carolina and the Outer Banks. ...20z Update... A damaging wind and tornado risk will continue into the evening across the North Carolina coast and Outer Banks. A few stronger cells interacting with the baroclinic zone along the coast have shown rotation, with a possible tornado observed via radar earlier this afternoon near the SC/NC border. While cloud cover, widespread precipitation and poor lapse rates will limit instability, strong low-level vertical wind profiles will remain favorable for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes. The only change with the 20z update was to trim severe probabilities from most of South Carolina in the wake of the surface low and primary surface trough. General thunder was also removed on the western periphery of the outlook area, mainly from GA and update SC. ..Leitman.. 12/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023/ ...Discussion... Recent surface analysis shows a low just off the northeastern Florida/southeastern Georgia coast at this time, which is progged to steadily deepen while shifting north-northeastward through tonight. At this time, what appears to be the most likely track for the low will be to remain just off the South Carolina coast through the daytime hours, and then possibly move just inland across coastal North Carolina or the Outer Banks overnight. North of the low track, widespread/steady precipitation is ongoing, which should reinforce a persistent cool/stable boundary layer inland through the daytime hours. With that said, the favorably strong/veering wind field observed within the northeast quadrant of the low continues to support occasionally rotating cells just offshore. This will continue, along with gradually increasing potential that a couple of these cells will begin moving inland across South Carolina coastal counties northeast of Charleston. While any storms would become increasingly elevated along their inland advance, storms may remain rooted near enough to the surface across immediate coastal counties of northeastern South Carolina -- and then later over eastern North Carolina and in particular the Outer Banks -- to yield risk for a couple of tornadoes, and possibly locally damaging wind gusts. As such, will maintain current delineation of the SLGT risk area just inland across South Carolina for today, and then across eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks area for this evening and overnight. Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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