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SPC Dec 17, 2023 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023

Valid 172000Z - 181200Z



Isolated damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible
through tonight across coastal North Carolina and the Outer Banks.

...20z Update...

A damaging wind and tornado risk will continue into the evening
across the North Carolina coast and Outer Banks. A few stronger
cells interacting with the baroclinic zone along the coast have
shown rotation, with a possible tornado observed via radar earlier
this afternoon near the SC/NC border. While cloud cover, widespread
precipitation and poor lapse rates will limit instability, strong
low-level vertical wind profiles will remain favorable for damaging
gusts and a couple of tornadoes. The only change with the 20z update
was to trim severe probabilities from most of South Carolina in the
wake of the surface low and primary surface trough. General thunder
was also removed on the western periphery of the outlook area,
mainly from GA and upstate SC.

..Leitman.. 12/17/2023

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023/

Recent surface analysis shows a low just off the northeastern
Florida/southeastern Georgia coast at this time, which is progged to
steadily deepen while shifting north-northeastward through tonight. 
At this time, what appears to be the most likely track for the low
will be to remain just off the South Carolina coast through the
daytime hours, and then possibly move just inland across coastal
North Carolina or the Outer Banks overnight.  

North of the low track, widespread/steady precipitation is ongoing,
which should reinforce a persistent cool/stable boundary layer
inland through the daytime hours.  With that said, the favorably
strong/veering wind field observed within the northeast quadrant of
the low continues to support occasionally rotating cells just
offshore.  This will continue, along with gradually increasing
potential that a couple of these cells will begin moving inland
across South Carolina coastal counties northeast of Charleston. 
While any storms would become increasingly elevated along their
inland advance, storms may remain rooted near enough to the surface
across immediate coastal counties of northeastern South Carolina --
and then later over eastern North Carolina and in particular the
Outer Banks -- to yield risk for a couple of tornadoes, and possibly
locally damaging wind gusts.  As such, will maintain current
delineation of the SLGT risk area just inland across South Carolina
for today, and then across eastern North Carolina and the Outer
Banks area for this evening and overnight.

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