Jump to content
  • Forum Image

SPC Dec 17, 2023 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook


Recommended Posts

  • Administrators
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW JERSEY
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
A few damaging gusts are possible from the eastern shore of New
Jersey into southern New England Monday morning. A few isolated
lightning flashes are possible along the northern/central California
coast.

...Northeast...

A strong coastal low, oriented near NJ/DE Monday morning, will
continue to modestly deepen as it lifts north/northeast through the
period. Very strong deep-layer south/southeasterly flow ahead of the
low and the associated shortwave trough will be oriented over the
offshore waters and overspreading New England. While this will allow
for 50s F dewpoints to spread across parts of southern New England,
very moist and warm low/midlevel thermodynamic profiles are
forecast. Widespread showers and cloud cover will preclude much
heating, and low/midlevel lapse rates will remain poor. As a result,
instability will remain meager. Nevertheless, strong ascent may be
sufficient for a few lightning flashes and perhaps a stronger
convective element or two moving onshore from the New Jersey to
southern New England coast. With forecast winds in the 925-850 mb
layer well over 50 kt, strong/damaging gusts are possible despite
the overall poor thermodynamic environment. 

...Northern/Central CA...

A shortwave trough will move onshore during the afternoon and into
the nighttime hours on Monday. Cool temperatures aloft and strong
large-scale ascent may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes
through the afternoon hours.

..Leitman.. 12/17/2023

Read more

View the full article

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



×
×
  • Create New...