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SPC Dec 17, 2023 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z


A few damaging gusts are possible from the eastern shore of New
Jersey into southern New England Monday morning. A few isolated
lightning flashes are possible along the northern/central California


A strong coastal low, oriented near NJ/DE Monday morning, will
continue to modestly deepen as it lifts north/northeast through the
period. Very strong deep-layer south/southeasterly flow ahead of the
low and the associated shortwave trough will be oriented over the
offshore waters and overspreading New England. While this will allow
for 50s F dewpoints to spread across parts of southern New England,
very moist and warm low/midlevel thermodynamic profiles are
forecast. Widespread showers and cloud cover will preclude much
heating, and low/midlevel lapse rates will remain poor. As a result,
instability will remain meager. Nevertheless, strong ascent may be
sufficient for a few lightning flashes and perhaps a stronger
convective element or two moving onshore from the New Jersey to
southern New England coast. With forecast winds in the 925-850 mb
layer well over 50 kt, strong/damaging gusts are possible despite
the overall poor thermodynamic environment. 

...Northern/Central CA...

A shortwave trough will move onshore during the afternoon and into
the nighttime hours on Monday. Cool temperatures aloft and strong
large-scale ascent may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes
through the afternoon hours.

..Leitman.. 12/17/2023

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