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Mesoscale Discussion 2335
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0551 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023

Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina

Concerning...Tornado Watch 722...

Valid 172351Z - 180145Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 722 continues.

SUMMARY...The risk of isolated supercell structures and a brief
tornado continues.

DISCUSSION...Radar loops continue to show relatively shallow/weak
showers and isolated thunderstorms moving ashore across eastern NC. 
This activity is to the east of a deep surface low centered off the
coast near the NC/SC border, in a regime of very strong low-level
winds and vertical shear.  The VAD profile at ILM is showing a
rapidly weakening shear profile/hodograph as the surface low moves
east and as a mid-level dry slot approaches, but the VAD at MHX
remains very intense with 1km AGL winds over 60 knots.  Stronger
low-level moisture and instability remains just offshore and may
never make it very far inland.  But transient supercell structures
may develop along the near-shore baroclinic zone, posing a risk of
brief tornadoes and damaging wind gusts.  

Tornado watch 722 is scheduled to expire at 01z.  Current
indications are that coastal counties of far-eastern NC may need to
remain in a watch for a few hours beyond 01z.

..Hart.. 12/17/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   34457808 36117660 35997526 35107547 34417657 33787770

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