Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 18, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 18, 2023 Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to suggest that a southern-stream shortwave trough will progress through the southern Plains on D4/Thursday and the Lower MS Valley on D5/Friday. Modest low-level moisture advection will precede this shortwave, supporting showers and isolated thunderstorms. However, overall buoyancy will be limited by warm mid-level temperatures, which should keep the severe potential low. Upper low expected to be off the southern California coast early D4/Thursday is forecast progress eastward across the Southwest/northern Mexico in the wave of the lead southern-stream shortwave, likely reaching the southern High Plains by D6/Saturday. Modest low-level moisture will still be in place across the southern Plains, and this wave should be accompanied by stronger large-scale forcing for ascent and colder mid-level temperatures. This should result in greater buoyancy than with the preceding wave, which may lend itself to stronger thunderstorms. However, timing of this wave remains uncertain, with the amount of overlap between the strongest shear and better buoyancy uncertain as well. These factors limit predictability and overall forecast confidence. Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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