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SPC Dec 18, 2023 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z


Isolated lightning flashes are possible along the central and
southern California coast on Wednesday.

High pressure associated with a dry continental air mass will
dominant the sensible weather across much of the central and eastern
CONUS during the period. Some limited air mass modification is
anticipated across the southern Plains as a low-amplitude shortwave
trough approaches from the west. Some precipitation is possible in
vicinity of this shortwave, but thermodynamic conditions are not
expected to support lightning production.

Farther west, an upper low is forecast to begin the period centered
about 275 miles west-southwest of SFO, before then progressing
southward/south-southwestward throughout the period. Persistent
southwesterly flow aloft will help keep profiles moist over much of
the central and southern CA coast. Mid-level temperatures across
this region are expected to cool throughout the day as the upper low
move southward. Modest buoyancy associated with these cooling
profiles could support isolated lightning flashes within any deeper,
more sustained updrafts.

..Mosier.. 12/18/2023

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