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SPC Dec 18, 2023 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook


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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG PARTS OF
COASTAL NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe wind gusts will be
possible today from near the coast of New Jersey into southern New
England.

...Coastal New Jersey/Southern New England...
A strong upper-level system over the Great Lakes will move toward
the central Appalachians today. Ahead of the system, a lead
shortwave trough and an associated deepening surface low will move
northward across the Northeast. A cold front near the Mid-Atlantic
coast will move eastward into the near-coastal waters with a
somewhat moist airmass located head of the front extending northward
across southern New England. A few thunderstorms will be possible
ahead of the front within this weak instability. An impressive 80 to
100 knot low-level jet will move northward across New England today.
Storms that develop across southern New England could have an
isolated wind-damage threat, as the stronger convection potentially
helps to mix winds toward the surface. However, due to very weak
instability, any threat is expected to remain marginal this morning
and afternoon.

..Broyles/Thompson.. 12/18/2023

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