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SPC Dec 18, 2023 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook


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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Image
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance continues to suggest that a southern-stream
shortwave trough will progress through the southern Plains on
D4/Thursday and the Lower MS Valley on D5/Friday. Modest low-level
moisture advection will precede this shortwave, supporting showers
and isolated thunderstorms. However, overall buoyancy will be
limited by warm mid-level temperatures, which should keep the severe
potential low.

Upper low expected to be off the southern California coast early
D4/Thursday is forecast progress eastward across the
Southwest/northern Mexico in the wave of the lead southern-stream
shortwave, likely reaching the southern High Plains by D6/Saturday.
Modest low-level moisture will still be in place across the southern
Plains, and this wave should be accompanied by stronger large-scale
forcing for ascent and colder mid-level temperatures. This should
result in greater buoyancy than with the preceding wave, which may
lend itself to stronger thunderstorms. However, timing of this wave
remains uncertain, with the amount of overlap between the strongest
shear and better buoyancy uncertain as well. These factors limit
predictability and overall forecast confidence.

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