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SPC Dec 18, 2023 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook


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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1013 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023

Valid 181630Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Convectively enhanced wind gusts will affect southeastern New
England this afternoon.

...Southeastern New England..
A narrow/forced band of convection is moving quickly eastward across
southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island at this time,
immediately ahead of a strong, northeastward-moving mid-level vort
max depicted by water vapor imagery just south of Long Island.

While cool surface temperatures have prohibited surface-based
instability in most areas, a small area of warmer (low 60s) boundary
layer is indicated over far southeastern New England (southeast
Massachusetts).  As such, minor enhancement of the intensity of the
convective band may occur over the next couple of hours, possibly
resulting in some mechanical downward transport of intense low-level
flow observed across this area.  This could result in gusts slightly
above the already above-severe level gradient gusts that are
ongoing, until convection moves offshore later this afternoon.  For
additional short-term information, please refer to SWOMCD #2337.

...California...

Thunderstorms associated with an inland-moving eastern Pacific
short-wave trough have diminished across California, but a few
additional lightning flashes remain possible this afternoon/
evening.

..Goss/Thornton.. 12/18/2023

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