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SPC Dec 18, 2023 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook


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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 PM CST Mon Dec 18 2023

Valid 182000Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low the
remainder of this afternoon into tonight.

...Synopsis...

Showers will continue across New England into this evening ahead of
the elongated surface low currently from near Long Island toward the
St. Lawrence Valley. Gusty surface winds also will persist given the
strong pressure gradient and intense low-level winds just above the
surface. However, any deeper convective elements will remain
offshore, and thunderstorm potential will be low over land. Given
deeper convection has pushed east, severe probabilities have been
removed from southern New England. 

Isolated thunderstorms are still possible this afternoon across
parts of central/northern CA, but chances should diminish by
evening. Severe storms are not expected.

..Leitman.. 12/18/2023

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Mon Dec 18 2023/

...Southeastern New England..
A narrow/forced band of convection is moving quickly eastward across
southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island at this time,
immediately ahead of a strong, northeastward-moving mid-level vort
max depicted by water vapor imagery just south of Long Island.

While cool surface temperatures have prohibited surface-based
instability in most areas, a small area of warmer (low 60s) boundary
layer is indicated over far southeastern New England (southeast
Massachusetts).  As such, minor enhancement of the intensity of the
convective band may occur over the next couple of hours, possibly
resulting in some mechanical downward transport of intense low-level
flow observed across this area.  This could result in gusts slightly
above the already above-severe level gradient gusts that are
ongoing, until convection moves offshore later this afternoon.  For
additional short-term information, please refer to SWOMCD #2337.

...California...

Thunderstorms associated with an inland-moving eastern Pacific
short-wave trough have diminished across California, but a few
additional lightning flashes remain possible this afternoon/
evening.

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