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SPC Dec 19, 2023 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z


Isolated thunderstorms are expected across coastal portions of
central and southern California, as well as the Arizona Lower
Desert, on Thursday.

A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to progress steadily
eastward from the southern High Plains through the southern Plains
on Thursday. Modest low-level moisture will be in place ahead of
this wave, with surface dewpoints likely in the mid to upper 50s
across much of TX by Thursday afternoon. Even with this increased
low-level moisture, warm mid-level temperatures and resulting poor
lapse rates should significantly limit buoyancy. This limited
buoyancy will keep updrafts weak and too shallow to produce

Farther west, an upper low is expected to begin the period centered
off the southern CA coast. This low is then expected to track
southeastward throughout the day, ending the period centered about
200 miles west-southwest of SAN. Strong forcing for ascent and cold
mid-level temperatures will help support isolated thunderstorms,
with the highest storm coverage anticipated over the immediate
coastal areas. As the low moves gradually eastward, showers and
thunderstorms are expected to expand eastward into the AZ Lower
Desert early Friday morning.

..Mosier.. 12/19/2023

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