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SPC Dec 19, 2023 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Image
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

Medium-range guidance remains in good agreement with the evolution
of the upper low expected to be just off the southern CA coast early
D4/Friday morning. General expectation for the system to become more
progressive, tracking over southern CA/northern Baja and into AZ on
D4/Friday, and across the southern High Plains and into the
southern/central Plains on D5/Saturday. A moderately warm and moist
air mass will likely be in place over the southern Plains,
contributing to the potential for showers and thunderstorms as the
system moves through. Shear will be strong enough to support
organized convection, but whether buoyancy will be large enough to
support deep, sustained updrafts remains in question.  

Another shortwave trough will follow quickly in the wake of the
first, with the current expectation taking this system through the
Plains on D7/Monday. Guidance suggests colder air will accompany
this system, with a strong cold front expected to push across the
central and southern Plains on D7/Monday. Some thunderstorms are
possible along this front over the southern Plains, although
uncertainty regarding the quality of the low-level moisture
preceding it limit predictability. 

Guidance is beginning to suggest this shortwave will continue within
the southern stream after D7/Monday, intensifying as it moves across
the Southeast during the middle of next week. This intensification,
if realized, could lead to some severe potential over the Southeast
and Mid-Atlantic during the second half of next week.

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