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SPC Dec 19, 2023 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z


Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of
southern/central California and over portions of the Southwest on
Wednesday. Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough/low initially over the eastern Pacific and west of
San Francisco is forecast to advance generally southward through
Wednesday night. To the east of this feature, a belt of modestly
enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow will overspread parts of
southern/central CA through the period. A band of precipitation
preceding a surface front should move slowly eastward through the
day, eventually impacting coastal portions of southern/central CA.
Modest diurnal heating of a moist profile through low/mid levels
should support the development of weak instability across these
areas. Isolated thunderstorms may occur within the larger band of
precipitation as it advances eastward. Poor lapse rates should
generally limit updraft intensity, and organized severe
thunderstorms appear unlikely. Still, isolated strong/gusty winds
may occur given somewhat favorable kinematics.

Occasional lighting flashes also appear possible Wednesday across
parts of AZ/NM into far west TX in association with a weak shortwave
trough moving northeastward over these areas. Both moisture and
buoyancy appear quite limited, which should keep the overall
thunderstorm threat rather isolated.

..Gleason.. 12/19/2023

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