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SPC Dec 20, 2023 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CST Wed Dec 20 2023

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z


Isolated thunderstorms are expected across coastal portions of
central and southern California, as well as southern Arizona, on

A low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to begin the period
over the southern High Plains before continuing eastward throughout
the day across the southern Plains. A modest moist air mass will be
in place ahead of this shortwave across TX and OK, with mid 50s
dewpoints likely reaching into far northwest TX. Even with this
increased low-level moisture, warm mid-level temperatures and
resulting poor mid-level lapse rates should temper buoyancy. A few
lightning flashes may occur, but the limited buoyancy should keep
the majority of updrafts too weak and shallow to produce lightning.

Farther west, an upper low is forecast to be centered about 320
miles off the southern CA coast early Thursday morning. This low is
expected to drift gradually southward throughout the first part of
the day before then tracking more eastward towards the coast
overnight and into Friday morning. Persistent forcing for ascent,
ample mid-level moisture, and cold mid-level temperatures associated
with this low will help support isolated thunderstorm development
along the coast throughout the day. As the low moves gradually
eastward, showers and thunderstorms are expected to expand eastward
across southern Arizona early Friday morning.

..Mosier.. 12/20/2023

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