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SPC Dec 20, 2023 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Wed Dec 20 2023

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z


Isolated thunderstorms are possible on Friday from southern
California across much of the Southwest. A few isolated
thunderstorms are possible along the Middle Texas Coast Saturday
morning as well.

An upper low is expected to be centered off the southern CA coast
early Friday morning before devolving into a more progressive open
wave and moving eastward across the Southwest States and northern
Mexico. Strong forcing for ascent, cold mid-level temperatures, and
increased mid-level moisture will accompany this system, supporting
the potential for thunderstorms across much of southern CA and
Southwest. Isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over
southern CA/AZ early Friday morning, with thunderstorms expected to
gradually shift eastward with parent upper system, ending with
isolated thunderstorms over southeast NM and far west TX Saturday
morning. Given the cold mid-level temperatures and enhanced
mid-level flow through the base of this wave, a few instances of
small hail are possible. Any hail should be small and sporadic
enough to preclude the need for any probabilities.

Low-level flow is expected to increase from south TX into the
Panhandle ahead of the approaching system Friday night into Saturday
morning. Eastern periphery of this increasing flow may interact with
enough low-level moisture to support isolated elevated thunderstorm
in the vicinity of the Middle TX Coast.

..Mosier.. 12/20/2023

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