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SPC Dec 20, 2023 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Image
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0405 AM CST Wed Dec 20 2023

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

Medium-range guidance remains consistent in forecasting a
southern-stream shortwave trough over AZ D4/Saturday morning. This
wave is then expected to continue eastward through the remainder of
the Southwest through the day before then progressing more
northeastward into the central Plains overnight. A moderately warm
and moist air mass will likely be in place over the southern Plains,
characterized by upper 50s dewpoints as far west as the TX Big
Country and Concho Valley and as far north as central OK. Even with
this moisture in place, heating will be limited by abundant clouds
and buoyancy will remain modest. Even so, forcing for ascent will be
strong and the modest buoyancy will still be more than sufficient
for thunderstorm development. Vertical shear will likely be strong
enough to support organized convection, but whether the
thermodynamic conditions will support deep, sustained updrafts
remains in question. As such, severe storms will likely be isolated,
with overall coverage too low to introduce any probabilities. 

In the wake of this lead wave, a series of shortwave troughs are
forecast to rotate through the upper troughing expected to be in
place over the Plains. Short wavelength between these waves will
likely lead to complex evolution, but the general expectation is for
upper troughing to persist across the Plains into early next week.
An associated surface low is expected to evolve gradually eastward,
with an attendant front pushing eastward across the southern/central
Plains on D5/Sunday and the Southeast on D6/Monday. Some
thunderstorms are possible along this front, although the buoyancy
preceding it will likely be limited.

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