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SPC Dec 20, 2023 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0631 AM CST Wed Dec 20 2023

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z


Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of
southern/central California and over portions of the Southwest. The
severe-thunderstorm threat appears low.

...CA to AZ/NM though tonight...
A midlevel low is expected to move slowly southward off the
central/southern CA coast through early Thursday, while a weak/lead
shortwave trough ejects northeastward over AZ/NM.  Some midlevel
convection occurred overnight across southern AZ in association with
the lead wave, where sufficient midlevel lapse rates/moisture
contributed to MUCAPE of 100-200 J/kg (rooted near 700 mb). 
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible through the day from
southeast AZ shifting eastward into NM.  Otherwise, the primary
baroclinic band will overspread the central CA coast today and
eventually reach the southern CA coast by tonight.  Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible near the coast through the period,
and across the San Joaquin Valley this afternoon.  Forecast wind
profiles suggest low potential for embedded organized/weakly
rotating storms just offshore, as observed south of San Francisco
this morning.  However, inland buoyancy should remain too marginal
to introduce any damaging wind and/or tornado probabilities.

..Thompson/Broyles.. 12/20/2023

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