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SPC Dec 20, 2023 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1025 AM CST Wed Dec 20 2023

Valid 201630Z - 211200Z


Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of
southern/central California and over portions of the Southwest.
Severe weather is not expected.

Low-amplitude ridging aloft will prevail across much of the country
today, as eastern U.S. troughing continues to slowly depart the
Northeast.  The main feature of interest with respect to convective
potential remains an upper low off the coast of California, which
will continue moving slowly southward.

Within the warm conveyor region of this system, and just ahead of a
weak surface front moving onshore, a disorganized band of convection
is indicated -- the strongest portion of which will gradually move
onshore over San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties over the
next few hours.  Ahead of this band, onshore instability remains
very weak and low-topped -- as evidenced by the overall lack of
lightning.  This, combined with weak low-level shear precludes any
appreciable risk for severe weather, though gusty winds may
accompany any stronger convective elements.

Elsewhere, sporadic lightning will continue across portions of the 
Southwest, in conjunction with a weaker mid-level disturbance moving
slowly eastward across the Four Corners states.  Thunderstorms are
not expected across the remainder of the U.S., where surface high
pressure and accompanying cool/stable conditions prevail.

..Goss/Thornton.. 12/20/2023

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