Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 21, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 21, 2023 SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND FAR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible on Friday from southern California across much of the Southwest. Some hail is possible across southeast Arizona and far southwest New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper low is expected to be centered off the southern CA coast early Friday morning. This low is forecast to steadily progress eastward throughout the day, reaching eastern AZ by early Saturday morning. Strong forcing for ascent, cold mid-level temperatures, and increased mid-level moisture will accompany this system, supporting the potential for thunderstorms across much of southern CA and Southwest. Numerous showers, with isolated embedded thunderstorms, will likely be ongoing Friday morning across much of southern CA. Precipitation is expected to gradually shift eastward with parent upper system, ending with showers and isolated thunderstorms over much of NM and far west TX Saturday morning. Modest buoyancy should limit updraft duration and strength within much of this activity. However, favorable overlap between buoyancy, increasing mid-level flow, and large-scale ascent appears likely across southeast AZ and adjacent far southwest NM. Here, a few stronger storms capable of hail appear possible late Friday afternoon through Friday evening. A few afternoon thunderstorms are also possible farther east across south TX ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough progressing eastward across central Mexico. An isolated thunderstorm or two may also occur early Saturday morning from the Middle TX Coast into central TX as strengthening low-level flow contributes to modest warm-air advection. ..Mosier.. 12/21/2023 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.