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SPC Dec 21, 2023 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2023

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z


Isolated thunderstorms are possible on Friday from southern
California across much of the Southwest. Some hail is possible
across southeast Arizona and far southwest New Mexico Friday
afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper low is expected to be centered off the southern CA coast
early Friday morning. This low is forecast to steadily progress
eastward throughout the day, reaching eastern AZ by early Saturday
morning. Strong forcing for ascent, cold mid-level temperatures, and
increased mid-level moisture will accompany this system, supporting
the potential for thunderstorms across much of southern CA and

Numerous showers, with isolated embedded thunderstorms, will likely
be ongoing Friday morning across much of southern CA. Precipitation
is expected to gradually shift eastward with parent upper system,
ending with showers and isolated thunderstorms over much of NM and
far west TX Saturday morning. Modest buoyancy should limit updraft
duration and strength within much of this activity. However,
favorable overlap between buoyancy, increasing mid-level flow, and
large-scale ascent appears likely across southeast AZ and adjacent
far southwest NM. Here, a few stronger storms capable of hail appear
possible late Friday afternoon through Friday evening. 

A few afternoon thunderstorms are also possible farther east across
south TX ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough progressing
eastward across central Mexico. An isolated thunderstorm or two may
also occur early Saturday morning from the Middle TX Coast into
central TX as strengthening low-level flow contributes to modest
warm-air advection.

..Mosier.. 12/21/2023

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