Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted December 21, 2023 Administrators Share Posted December 21, 2023 MD 2338 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN CA COAST Mesoscale Discussion 2338 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2023 Areas affected...Southern CA coast Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 210956Z - 211130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated, weakly rotating storms possible, but the severe threat remains low. DISCUSSION...Low-topped convection continues to move onshore across Ventura County within a baroclinic band east of the closed low near 33 N and 126 W. Surface observations and modified RAP model soundings suggest weak surface-based CAPE (near 500 J/kg) extends just inland from the coast, with buoyancy quickly diminishing inland as a result of some offshore component to the near-surface flow. The VWP from KVTX has shown some backing and increase in flow in the lowest 1 km AGL in the past 30-60 minutes, with a resultant increase in hodograph curvature/SRH. Thus, some potential for weakly rotating storms will continue for the next few hours near and just off coast. Given the marginal nature of the buoyancy and its limited inland extent, the potential for a brief tornado and/or damaging gust still appears fairly low. ..Thompson/Broyles.. 12/21/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOX... LAT...LON 33651912 33981950 34411966 34471940 34471923 34241852 33941824 33501837 33461846 33521877 33651912 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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