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SPC MD 2338

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Mesoscale Discussion 2338
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2023

Areas affected...Southern CA coast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 210956Z - 211130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated, weakly rotating storms possible, but the severe
threat remains low.

DISCUSSION...Low-topped convection continues to move onshore across
Ventura County within a baroclinic band east of the closed low near
33 N and 126 W.  Surface observations and modified RAP model
soundings suggest weak surface-based CAPE (near 500 J/kg) extends
just inland from the coast, with buoyancy quickly diminishing inland
as a result of some offshore component to the near-surface flow. 
The VWP from KVTX has shown some backing and increase in flow in the
lowest 1 km AGL in the past 30-60 minutes, with a resultant increase
in hodograph curvature/SRH.  Thus, some potential for weakly
rotating storms will continue for the next few hours near and just
off coast.  Given the marginal nature of the buoyancy and its
limited inland extent, the potential for a brief tornado and/or
damaging gust still appears fairly low.

..Thompson/Broyles.. 12/21/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   33651912 33981950 34411966 34471940 34471923 34241852
            33941824 33501837 33461846 33521877 33651912 

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